Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

SPY daily and the fear gauge: It remains under 10 and for good reason. - https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Waiting to see if we undercut the low or make a lower high.

Dipping a Cautious Toe Into the Water
By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute

The S&P 500 has fallen for seven weeks straight. The index was above 4600 near the end of April.

It closed on Friday at 3900 – a drop of more than 15%. And it registers as one of the worst seven-week performances for the stock market… ever.

During this entire period, as the broad stock market was falling many of the technical indicators we follow were dropping right along with it.

The S&P 500 would fall to a lower low, and all the momentum indicators fell to lower lows as well.

That changed last week…

It’s subtle. But if you look closely at the following chart of the S&P 500, you can see some positive divergence on the technical indicators at the bottom (MACD, RSI, and CCI)

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...nto-the-water/

GDXJ daily: Still looking good. Waiting to see if we might have a new trend starting.

Long GDXJ and EQX

EQX daily: Closed and held above the 9 ema.

Wheat..... We shall see how this plays out.

Jim Rickards: “We are on the precipice”
BY DAVID HAGGITH ◆ MAY 20, 2022 3 COMMENTS

I don’t believe many people grasp the enormity of the global food crisis we’ll be facing in the months ahead. But the world could be on the verge of a massive humanitarian crisis. Let’s dive in…

29% of All Wheat Exports in Jeopardy
In the Northern Hemisphere, the planting season for 2022 is well underway. Crops were planted (or not) in March and April. Based on that, you can already form estimates of output next September and October during the harvest season (subject to some variability based on weather and other factors).

Plantings have been far below normal in 2022, either due to a lack of fertilizer or to much higher costs for fertilizer where farmers simply chose to plant less. This predictable shortage is in addition to the much greater shortages due to the fact that Russian output is sanctioned and Ukrainian output is nonexistent because it’s at war.

Russia and Ukraine together account for 29% of global wheat and 19% of global corn exports.

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/jim-r...the-precipice/

SPY daily: Still unable to close back above the 10 dma on the daily chart. The first step to starting a new trending move after a confirmed DCL. The last move up that closed above the 10 dma was another fake out and a whipsaw. Well, for those of us that use a move above the 10 dma as a buy signal. Yes I do use that data along with other indicators as that is part of my trading system....

Still doing ok trading SDS and SSO..... Impossible to trade TSP in a market like this one with only 2 moves a month. Not a market I want to buy and hold. Still long some C and S fund for my test, but I have those positions hedge using SDS and flip to SSO when I like the setups. We shall see it the SPY can close back above the 3 ema today. That would be a plus. Bought some SSO during the dip this morning for a daytrade.

Tough trading for sure!

For any 22 LR plinkers out there. Finally got my Vudoo..... Shoots well, but probably over priced for most plinkers. Hard to get a good look at it from the picture below, but close to the one in this video.

THE MOST ACCURATE 22LR BOLT ACTION I HAVE EVER SHOT - VUDOO RAVAGE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8BnGrvnrww

Gold miners daily: Still looking good! GDX needs to get back above the 200 dma.......

SPY daily: A nice move back above the 20 dma. The 50 dma will be next if the SPY can get there..... I remain long SPY. A confirmed by signal, but will I get whipsawed again? We shall see how this bounce plays out.

Has BTFD's turned into STFR's?

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Has BTFD's turned into STFR's?

Very possibe! We shall see how this daily cycle low plays out. I'm still trying to catch the next ICL, but continue to get whipsawed. Bear Markets are tough to trade. Watching the weekly for a possible ICL..... It looks like the 7 weeks down will hold. It was above average odds just to go long using that data point.

"The S&P 500 is down for seven consecutive weeks, its worst stretch since the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2001."

Stocks Confirm New Daily Cycle

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday then delivered bullish follow through Wednesday and Thursday.

The next task at hand is to break above the lower stem of the megaphone topping pattern. Stocks will need to do so in order for any bullish trending move to develop. Rejection here would extend the intermediate cycle decline.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...daily-cycle-3/