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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #3265

    Lightbulb TLT

    6th worst sequential weekly down. 2nd worst sequential weekly percent down. Three more weeks down and two percent down to be the largest sequential drop in the past twenty years.

    P.S. Runs are a simple version of cycles.

    tlt weekly.PNG
    Last edited by redbrian; 05-08-2022 at 10:16 AM.

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  3. #3266

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    Default Re: TLT

    Very ugly!
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #3267

    Lightbulb TLT

    Most extreme percentage from 200 DMA in twenty years.

    tltp.png


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  7. #3268

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    Default Re: TLT

    I'm long some TLT..... Looking for a nice bounce in the months ahead.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #3269

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    Default Re: TLT

    SPX daily: I got whipsawed the last time I thought the DCL was in. Stocks were unable to close back above the 20 dma after a close above the 10 dma. That move was a buy signal for me based on my indicators, but I got whipsawed. We shall see how next week plays out. My focus remains on trading the gold miners right now.
    This is a very tough market to try and trade!

    Long - GDXJ, EQX, SLV, TLT - (TSP C and S funds) In a trading account I would have sold with any move back below the 10 dma. However, there is only two moves a month in TSP, we were late in the cycle, and since I'm performing a test I held. TSP is great in Bull Markets. If you buy early in a Bull Market the Bull will save you. But in Bear Markets, trying to catch the falling knife can be rough. I use data for my buy signals that give me better odds for a winner, but there is NO SUCH thing as a perfect system. I use very few indicators and keep it simple.

    Good Luck to all next week.

    I don't post much when I'm doing lots of short-term trading. Since TSP is a MT type trading system or a long-term investment account it shouldn't be used much during a Bear market. How could it be anything else with only two moves a month. Great for dollar cost averaging when we are in a Bull Market, and going to cash in a Bear Market. We are current in a Bear Market, so it's hard to trade the rips and dips. Please note the weekly 2000 bear market chart below. Tradeable, but very tough to do using a TSP account. Note that the weekly overall trend was down for years. (The last chart -2000 Weekly Bear Market Chart) Some new investors/traders and never traded in a Bear Market. They will learn some lessons the hard way.
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    Last edited by robo; 05-14-2022 at 07:53 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #3270

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    Default Re: TLT

    Last week was rough: We shall see how this indicator plays out this time.

    This Critical Indicator Looks Hopeful

    Amid last week’s chaos, a little bit of hope showed up in a critical chart.

    The Bullish Percent Index for the financial sector (BPFINA) just turned higher from oversold conditions.

    Meaning that we now have a buy signal for the banking stocks.

    And, since the action in the banks tends to lead the action in the broad stock market, a BPFINA buy signal could mean we’ve seen the worst of the recent stock market decline…

    Take a look at this chart of the BPFINA…

    However, last week, the BPFINA dropped to its lowest level of the year (right blue arrow) – meaning the financial sector was more oversold than at any time in the past twelve months.

    It turned higher on Friday… so, we have another buy signal.

    Of course, there’s no guarantee this one will play out. But it’s rare to get two failed signals in a row. So, I like the odds.

    The BPFINA buy signal back in March led to a 10% rally in the KBW Bank Index (BKX) in just two weeks. And that move went along with a 10% rally in the S&P 500 during the same time frame.

    The BPFINA is more oversold today than it was in March.

    So, I suspect whatever rally or bounce we get from this setup will be even stronger than what we saw in March.

    Best regards and good trading,

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...looks-hopeful/
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    Last edited by robo; 05-16-2022 at 08:38 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #3271

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    Default Re: TLT

    SPX daily: Still holding above the 3 ema. The 9 ema is up next.....We shall see how it plays out, and if it can close back above the 9 ema. The cycle dudes like to use the 10 dma.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #3272

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    Default Re: TLT

    SPY daily: The SPY was unable to close above the 9 ema today, but closing above the 3 ema again was a small positive. We shall see what tomorrow brings. Still capped under the 10 dma as the Bears have the edge, and buyers are worried about another move lower.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #3273

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    Default Re: TLT

    Opportunity in a Capitulating Market
    Eric Shamilov | May 17, 2022 |
    The VIX started heading lower on May 9…

    Yet, stocks continued to drop for another three days before finally bouncing.

    When stocks fall, volatility rises. But in this case, stocks and volatility were falling in unison.

    You can’t have it both ways for any material stretch of time.

    This tends to happen when momentum feeds on itself and capitulates – with margin selling toward the end of the move, as we’re seeing now.

    My favorite example of divergence between volatility and stock prices occurred in January 2018… where the reverse happened.

    Stocks kept rising with tiny intraday ranges, and the VIX started rising as well toward the end of the month.

    This was a prelude to what has become known as “Volmageddon” – when the market crashed 10% in 9 days.

    We’re not going to see a complete mirror image of those events now, just a small relief bounce.

    But for traders, a smooth 2-3% move can generate big profits.

    One area to target is 4150 – the price level on the S&P 500 right before the most recent Fed meeting on May 4.

    The chart below shows how there’s quite a bit of room for the market to run before it retests those levels…

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...lating-market/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #3274

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    Default Re: TLT

    SPY daily: The gap is filled..... Now what be up next? A move above the 9 ema that was a buy signal and now a smash-down and a whipsaw. Get use to it for the next few years......

    So far a low volume sell-off...... We shall see how the rest of the week plays out.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #3275

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY monthly: Just a YCL or the start of a Bear Market?
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #3276

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY monthly...... If it's a Bear Market it has a long ways to go before it bottoms. The monthly will move much lower during a Bear Market before it finds a true bottom. That doesn't mean it will be straight down, but trying to use TSP funds in Bear Market is more about luck then good trading.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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