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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #3253

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Sold my positions at the close yesterday in my trading accounts. Still holding only TSP positions, but will reduce. The 20 dma is up next! I thought we might get some pullback after yesterday's move higher. We shall see how we close today.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #3254

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily and Bear Market Trading: This is normal type trading in a Bear Market. We shall see how the DCL data plays out.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #3255

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY weekly 2000 Bear Market chart: In my opinion this is what is coming our way the next few years. I traded the 2000 and 2007 Bear markets and I don't plan on making some of the same mistakes I made back then. However, back then I had different tools and followed to many Guru's that took to much risk. Some of the weekly moves up in Bear Markets are very tradable. But buying the dip in a Bear Market using TSP ,when you only have two moves, have to buy in the morning, and can't use stops, or sell during the trading day, is not a fund to be using to much.

    I went long this time based on my tools, but this could still end up being a failed daily cycle. For now I will hold because I'm testing a trading system for my son. He is a GS13. The system is based on a 100k of his funds used for stocks. So 100% long is a $100k position, not ALL of his money in TSP. A position 60% in stocks means he still has 40% in reserve to add and buy more shares. If gains increase to quickly they will be pulled out. The withdraws are based on I have unlimited moves exiting stocks back into the G Fund. I tried to get him to put more money in a Roth IRA at Vanguard, but because he is single he went for the tax break and puts 15k a year into his TSP account.

    Anyway, wanted to let folks know what is going on when I go 100% long based on my tools. If I go to 100% long the max for that trade will never exceed 100k....

    Again, waiting to see how this DCL plays out.

    Good Trading, and I'm trading both ways today!
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    Last edited by robo; 05-05-2022 at 12:33 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #3256

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    TLT monthly: Another huge move down for TLT this morning...... I added to my TLT position this morning and it remains a loser..... I trade using the daily and weekly data, but TLT moved beolw the 10 moth ma 5 months ago. It's been 19 weeks since TLT went to a weekly sell signal. A move below the 10 week ma is a confirmed sell signal. TLT remains in a brutal very extrem downtrend as it moves into it's 3 year cycle low. See the weekly chart below. As you look it over remember that cycle data is a huge part of my trading system.


    For the record: I use likesmoney for my cycle data, but I DECIDED when to buy and how much.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/Global Bond Market Decimated, Future Performance ‘Policy Dependent’

    By Andrew Moran

    http://truecontrarian.com/hedgefund/epochtimes.html

    A picture of him below: I'm a longtime sub as I like to hear and read over his contrarian thoughts, and I do use some of his ideas in my trading system. Since I'm a short-term trader he doesn't care for my style, but I'm happy with my current trading tools using cycles and a few other indicators. I do track some of Steve's data, and join his weekly Zoom meetings, but I use them more as a warning indicator alone with my trading system.


    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/


    A finally thought: Sell in May is looking good for those that might use those type indicators for trading. We shall see how this daily cycle plays.

    TSP Long: VXF, SPY, and hedge with SDS ( Trading SDS today ). I will take the gains and sell SDS before the close. I also sold all other positions yesterday before the close.

    Trading JNUG/and GDXJ today - I Bought close to the low for a trade today, I will probably hold over night. I also added TLT today and my average share price is listed on the chart.
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    Last edited by robo; 05-05-2022 at 01:35 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #3257

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: We shall see if the low marker holds in the days ahead. (405.02) Bear Market Trading is in play........ This is NOT what you see in a Bull Market! A few buyers coming in at the close....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #3258

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I've happily continued buying bonds in my accounts on a bi-weekly basis. Nothing has changed.


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  13. #3259

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Another bear market behavior up day negated. Michael Burry today:

    bury.JPG

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  15. #3260

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Looks Like Déjà Vu All Over Again

    After rallying for an almost 3% gain on the Fed rate hike on Wednesday, stocks gave it all back and then some on Thursday.

    This is beginning to look like the late February DCL. The powerful thrust out of the day 22 low indicated a ‘V’ shape bottom. Then stocks got hammered and trended lower until they consolidated which allowed the 10 day MA to flatten out. And it looks like stocks will need to consolidate which will help to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out before the rally into the new daily cycle can gain any traction.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...ll-over-again/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #3261

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: A higher low or the start of the next move down? We should know soon..... Waiting to see how this daily cycle plays out.....

    Still hedging TSP with SDS....
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    Last edited by robo; 05-06-2022 at 09:01 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #3262

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    TLT weekly: Closing out the week for TLT. It's Week 19 since TLT moved below the 10 week ma and produced a sell signal...... The move down continues.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #3263

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Cycles: Still not confirmed....

    Opportunity Knocking

    Stocks broke below the February low this week.

    If February was the yearly cycle low, then the first intermediate cycle should right translate. Instead, stocks peaked on what would have been week 5 then went on to break below the February low this week.

    And – if February was the intermediate cycle low, then the first daily cycle should right translate. Instead, stocks printed consecutive failed daily cycles, beginning a pattern of lower lows.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #3264

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    TLT Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts: The patterns continue to get more extreme as the monthly moves below the 100 month ma, and the weekly moves way below the 200 week ma. Rare extremes indeed. How much longer before we see an ICL and a possible 3 YCL.

    Bottom Line: The move down continues, and we are currently seeing some rare extreme oversold levels for TLT.Repricing a Market Priced for Zero

    A comment below about TLT and some thoughts about some possible swing trading coming our way

    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
    President, Hussman Investment Trust

    April 2022

    Market crashes

    One of the interesting features of long, interesting trips to nowhere is that much of the repricing can occur within a compressed period of time. For example, while the total return of the S&P 500 lagged Treasury bills between 2000-2013, a great deal of the damage was compressed into the 2000-2002 collapse, after which the market enjoyed a 5-year bull market before the global financial crisis emerged. So even though I frankly expect the S&P 500 to lag Treasury bills for a period between 10 and 20 years, I also expect very frequent periods of investment opportunity along the way. I would expect the best opportunities to emerge in periods when a material retreat in market valuations is joined by an improvement what I often describe as the “uniformity” of market internals.

    A market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a low risk-premium; upward yield pressure meeting an inadequate yield. Both features are necessary. Extreme valuations may set investors up for dismal long-term returns, and they may imply profound market losses over the complete market cycle – but so long as investors have the speculative bit in their teeth, extreme valuations can persist for a very long time before collapsing.

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220429/
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    Last edited by robo; 05-08-2022 at 08:23 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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