Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

That dot in 2007 is worth noting. Things were getting bearish by that point, but the bear market had not yet begun.

SPY daily: Testing the March low marker - 409.37...... TSPer's will get their 2 moves back next week..... The pattern has continued as SPY has been unable to start a trending move above the 100 dma, will the current move down be a higher low or an undercut? We shall see next week? I'm sure NOT going short NOW..... Sold my short positions to early again, but that's ok. Bulls make money, Bears make money and pigs get - you know, turned into bacon and pork chops.

Some of his latest tweets....
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie

Apr 28
The front page of today's USA Today says it all. Four years of price hikes lumped into one! Didn't even happen in the 1970s. Question is -- what do the next four years look like now that the Fed is going to crush demand and this prior pricing power?
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en

SPY daily: Ugly! Still no DCL....

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday then negated that swing low on Friday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 45, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. So we are still waiting on a swing low and close above the 10 day MA to signal a the DCL. Stocks are in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

This is the 12th worst month for NASDAQ ever
A negative 13.3% qualifies for a 12th worst ever. You would have needed -15% to make it into the "worst 10" list (beating November 1973). To be the worst month ever you have to beat October 1987 that has a 27% decline. Our poster-child of this bear, ARK Innovation, actually managed to (-28% in April).
https://themarketear.com/

Getting there.....

Fear & Greed Index
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


What Direction Do AAII Members Feel The Stock Market Will Be In The Next 6 Months?

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

SPY monthly: A tag of the 200 month ma is normal during a Bear Market. However, one would think a undercut is likely....

VXF daily: VXF is leading on the monthly trend down, but a long way to go to get back to some sort of mean. VXF still remains very stretched above the 100 month moving average, but getting close to the 50 month ma.

TLT weekly: A rough week for stocks last week! Will there soon be a flight to safety? We shall see! Still holding some TLT and it's a loser for now.

Hmmm......

GDXJ daily: Back below the 200 dma so I'm buying shares again for a trade.

I thought a smart guy was buying the dip. Then I looked at GDXJ

It is a gold miners stock if I didn't blow the lookup.

Predator

Originally Posted by Boghie

I thought a smart guy was buying the dip. Then I looked at GDXJ

It is a gold miners stock if I didn't blow the lookup.

Predator

I sold my GDXJ shares sometime back. Now that GDXJ has moved back below the 200 dma I will be taking a new position. I’m not an investor and trade the miners often..... Both ways on occasion. We could move much lower, but I will be adding not selling. I like the odds for a trade.

I did add to the C fund today as I’m trying to catch the next DCL. A high risk trade, but I like the odds this late in the cycle. I’m Trading using Bear Market rules, and will exit the trade after a new daily cycle is confirmed. LOL..... We shall see how it plays out. I’m trading and hedging TSP in my other trading accounts. I’m also day trading JNUG and NUGT. Got some shares close to the lows of the day this morning.

GDXJ weekly: Looks like we are getting closer as GDXJ weekly is getting close to testing the 200 week moving average. This could turn out to be a very nice MT trade.... A trend that would last for many weeks.

Gold update Buying opportunity coming

May 2, 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNMRO7vcLfE&t=550s