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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2917

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF daily: Close enough to call it a (-20%) move down from its high..... The Best six months is having some trouble......

    So if you had unlimited moves how many times did you buy on the way down, and where on the chart. We could probably call this day 6 of the Bloodbath phase heading into an ICL.

    Bottom Line: VXF remains in a downtrend, and sometimes cash is the BEST position.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2918

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    The Best six months is having some trouble......
    Good point. The last few major declines have come in that best six month period. Late 2018. Early 2020, and now late 2021 / early 2022.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #2919

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Suddenly put love is huge
    People hate puts when they should love them, and love them when they should hate them. Current love for puts is huge. We have said it many times before and will say it again: "buy protection when you can, not when you must".
    https://themarketear.com/

    Buy-the-Dip: meet the massive paper profits...
    Some interesting takes from the always excellent Privorotsky at the GS London trading desk. First, he notes that CTA trigger level in equities are now in play and are likely to start having an impact. Second more importantly, shall we trough out all these "prime brokerage positioning indicators" as we are now running into a completely different supply / demand dynamic? GS: "Despite readings in our PB of gross and nets being low, tech exposure having been reduced it feels that more long term holders are trying to protect big paper profits accrued during the pandemic. Market participants have been conditioned to an environment where dips are shallow, rates are reflexive and at the first signs of weakness the central bank floods the market with liquidity".
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2920

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Fed is great...but not at managing volatility
    Fed's BS just printed another new all time high. That is supposed to stabilize stuff, but VVIX continues refusing to be "managed" by Fed. Fed has distorted volatility markets for a long time and the end "product" isn't looking great, but that is something for the bigger picture longer term view.
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2921

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Good point. The last few major declines have come in that best six month period. Late 2018. Early 2020, and now late 2021 / early 2022.
    A historical chart worth looking over 1929-1932: Note the RIPS and DIPS.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2922

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Sky Is Falling
    Posted on January 22, 2022

    Stocks closed below the previous DCL on Thursday to form a failed daily cycle.

    Stocks continued lower on Friday to close below the 200 day MA. Friday was day 32, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. A swing low and recovery of the 200 day MA would signal a new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...-is-falling-2/
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    Last edited by robo; 01-22-2022 at 08:15 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2923

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Sentiment Sanity: The Goldman one does NOT scream buy

    It moves in mysterious ways...The Goldman Sachs "Sentiment Indicator" measures stock positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors versus the past 12 months. Readings below -1.0 or above +1.0 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns.
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2924

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2925

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    I like Vanguard and unlimited moves, but I have a trading system and indicators I use for buy and sell signals. I also use Risk Management..... I told you when I first got unlimited moves I went from the frying pan right into the fire. Sometimes having only two moves will save you money.
    Great words and a concept that so few will ever grasp. Beating a benchmark is hard - with luck playing a larger part than anyone is willing to admit. There will always be a bell curve of random returns. Not a day goes by on this forum when people complain about not having daily moves. Back when we did, people still complained and blamed their woes on the noon cutoff.


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  19. #2926

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I have a TD ameritrade account. My original plan was just to invest in low fee ETF's, VOO, VXF, etc... More or less run it just like my TSP account.


    Feel's like there is not a good place to invest in right now. I did follow your gold miners stock, cashed out for a 7% gain the day it went up big. Thanks for that. Bonds are losing money, Market is in a bear cycle. Guess Cash only safe place as of now. Is there any ETF that is like the G fund(no risk but gets a 1%-2% return)? Anyways appreciate you posting all the time, feel like you're really experienced and know what you're doing.
    Last edited by Guest; 01-24-2022 at 07:05 AM.

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  21. #2927

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by Babkock View Post
    I have a TD ameritrade account. My original plan was just to invest in low fee ETF's, VOO, VXF, etc... More or less run it just like my TSP account.


    Feel's like there is not a good place to invest in right now. I did follow your gold miners stock, cashed out for a 7% gain the day it went up big. Thanks for that. Bonds are losing money, Market is in a bear cycle. Guess Cash only safe place as of now. Is there any ETF that is like the G fund(no risk but gets a 1%-2% return)? Anyways appreciate you posting all the time, feel like you're really experienced and know what you're doing.
    I think your plan is a good one, but when to buy and how much ( Risk Management) is where trading gets tougher. If you use the 3 ema and the 10 sma on the daily chart then my system remains on a sell position and hold cash. I also use cycle indicators.

    However, I also trade using other indicators which in more like gambling. Lower BB tags, oversold conditions, DCL's, etc.

    My current positions are VXF, SSO and they are are currently down. Why? Because I'm counter-trend trading in a market moving down and guessing when it will turn. This is why it's so important to keep trades smaller. I'm still adding shares and will do so again today. Why? Because I "THINK" we are close to an ICL. Brother my position size for this trade is still under 10%. I will place new positions once we hit an ICL and we move back above the 3 ema and it is confirmed by the 10 sma.

    Bottom Line: The trend remains down and placing trades means you are guessing on a turn. That works well in a Strong Bull Market (BTD) but not very well in a market moving lower for many days. VXF will be down over 20% with this morning's gap down. I will be adding to my VXF and SSO positions this morning because I still haven't hit 10% total.
    My point is placing ( counter-trend big trading bets) is no more then gambling and I have several indicators to place my trades. ( Which are no more then BETS)

    The safe trade will be to wait until we move back above the 3 ema, confirmed by the 10 sma, on the daily. That should get us a DCL. So look at the charts below and tell me when you would have bought? If you are gambling like me I used my indicators and placed a trade, and SO FAR I'M wrong.

    Placing large bets in a market like this one can be an account killer.

    I will let you know what I'm doing, but I have PLENTY of losing trades.

    Long VXF, and SSO. Adding this morning and it's a counter-trend trade. Some are already 100% long the S Fund so they can NOT add. That was my point on unlimited moves. When will you buy and sell? I will be placing my next positions for the S FUND once we get a move back above the 3 ema and confirmed by the 10 sma. I tried two moves using some of my other trading indicators, but the market kept moving lower. I will be looking for a confirmed DCL and and possible ICL or YCL to add when I get my next two moves which will be next month. So like many other's I'm riding the index down in an ugly move and unable to add. Using a trend trading system only I would still be in cash.

    I will keep you posted, but this year is not going to be as easy to trade.

    Long SSO, and VXF Brother and I just added some shares with the gap down. I placed limit orders before the open.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2928

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Babkock,

    "I have a TD ameritrade account. My original plan was just to invest in low fee ETF's, VOO, VXF, etc... More or less run it just like my TSP account."

    Brother I'm not giving you trading advice, I'm just pointing out what I do. If it's NOT some type of IRA...Roth etc...... You will have to pay short-term capital gains on all your trades if you trade the indexes often like I do. You will also run into Wash Sale Rules. Look up the rules for LT capital gains. LOL..... All my trades are going to be short-term capital gain trades. That is why it's best to use a Roth IRA.

    Keep that in mind Brother if you opened a non IRA type account.

    What Is the Wash-Sale Rule?
    The wash-sale rule is an Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regulation that prevents a taxpayer from taking a tax deduction for a security sold in a wash sale. The rule defines a wash sale as one that occurs when an individual sells or trades a security at a loss and, within 30 days before or after this sale, buys a "substantially identical" stock or security, or acquires a contract or option to do so.


    A wash sale also results if an individual sells a security, and the individual's spouse or a company controlled by the individual buys a substantially equivalent security.


    KEY TAKEAWAYS
    A wash sale occurs when an investor sells or trades a security at a loss, and within 30 days before or after, buys another one that is substantially similar.
    It also happens if the individual sells the security at a loss, and their spouse or a company they control buys a substantially similar security within 30 days.1
    The wash-sale rule prevents taxpayers from deducting a capital loss on the sale against the capital gain.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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