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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2869

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Fed is set to become a net seller of MBS and spreads are likely to widen

    The Fed has started tapering its net additions of $40bn a month in MBS for most of QE4 and is only set to net add $20bn in the January reinvestment period. They are on schedule to end net purchases after the February reinvestment period. JPM: "Our current base case has the Fed reinvesting all paydowns into MBS from March through June, and first letting MBS run off the balance sheet in July. Fed holdings of mortgages began the year at $2.60tr, we expect a peak of $2.62tr in February and at YE22 the holdings to be $2.47tr (down 5% y/y). By the end of 2023 we expect the holdings to decline a further $361bn (down 19% from the peak)".
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2870

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Fed - time to normalize

    Morgan Stanley's Wilson remains pone of the big bears out there and expects a correction of 10-20% during H1 2022. One of the similarities he sees is the Fed "set up" in the 1940s. He writes: "It was a very similar set-up to today with spiking inflation forcing the Fed's hand to start to normalize extraordinary monetary accommodation. The equity market took notice by adjusting the risk premium sharply higher, much like we are seeing today with the highest-valued stocks. Our view is that this could also happen to the S&P 500 as the Fed begins to act. If so, it's anyone's guess how high ERPs can rise but 350bp seems like a low estimate if the markets decide it's time to adjust for a new regime." Worried Wilson remains worried...
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2871

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    A ugly gap down for stocks this morning as the dollar gaps up. We shall if buyers come in or it scares others to sell. The SPY looks to gap down around 1% at the open, so VXF will probably be more. I will post charts after the open.....
    https://www.investing.com/currencies/us-dollar-index


    Gold about flat, but Silver is on the move.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #2872

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Rates: Will they matter?

    (Will) rates matter?
    The short term gap between NASDAQ and the 10 year is rather wide here (again). If "they" start to care about rates properly, tech could be in for another round of beating...
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2873

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    DéJà Vu All Over Again
    Jan. 18, 2022 7:36 AM

    The financial markets will consistently behave similarly to whatever they have done in the past under nearly-matching conditions.

    There are numerous sectors today which will likely gain while large-cap growth shares keep making lower highs for two or three years.

    We have stealthily entered a meaningful rotation out of large-cap deflation-loving U.S. growth shares into small- and mid-cap inflation-loving global value shares.
    Most investors are either treating 2022 as though it will be an approximate repeat of 2021 or else they believe that the investing world is totally different than it has ever been in the past. Both of these expectations are seriously flawed. The financial markets will consistently behave similarly to whatever they have done in the past under nearly-matching conditions. Early 2022 has numerous parallels to early 2000, early 1973, and the late summer of 1929. In addition, the past year which was 2021 was surprisingly analogous to 1999-2000, 1972, and 1928-1929. Therefore, what will occur over the next few years can best be determined by examining the market's behavior during 2000-2003, 1972-1975, and 1929-1932. This is especially true since so few investors are doing likewise, thereby making it probable that you will come out far ahead by studying and applying these valuable parallels.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/448...+Article+Smart
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2874

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL..... I have tried this more then once..... It always looks easy "AFTER the FACT" and the market has bottomed with a nice bounce.....

    Two Rules for Catching a “Falling Knife”
    Jeff Clark | Jan 18, 2022 | Market Minute | 4 min read

    Most traders are familiar with the cliché Wall Street warning of “don’t catch a falling knife.”

    You see, buying into a stock that’s falling sharply is generally a bad idea. While picking the bottom of a stock can lead to massive gains… if you buy at the wrong time, it can also lead to big losses. And, frankly, most of the time… that’s what happens.

    But there are times when the knife is so close to the ground – where the risk of further loss is minimal, and where the potential gains are so enormous – that it makes sense to reach out and grab it.

    Today, I’m going to show you how to find these setups…

    Let’s start by looking at an example.

    Take a look at this chart of Lululemon Athletica (LULU), the sports apparel manufacturer known best for its line of yoga clothes…
    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...falling-knife/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2875

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF daily: An undercut of the 170.29 marker..... Waiting to see if buyers show up....

    I added a few more shares of VXF at Vanguard as we back tested (BT) the lows 170.00ish.... If I wanted to add to the S Fund it's hard to tell what the closing price would be.

    Dear

    The following order executed on 01/18/2022 at 9:35 AM, Eastern time:

    Account:
    Transaction type: Buy
    Order type: Limit
    Security: VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET ETF (VXF)
    Quantity: 10 share(s)
    Price:* $170.00
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    Last edited by robo; 01-18-2022 at 09:08 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2876

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF daily: The move down continues. A possible ICL or maybe a YCL coming our way.... Around a (- 16%) move down since printing the high marker of 199.76 for this index. It be very close to the S Fund.....

    Bottom Line: The Trend remains down. No "Easy Money Monday" this week unless you were short....

    Long - VXF and GDXJ.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2877

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF 2 hour chart: You can see how VXF continues to trend lower and below the 10 sma on the 2 hour chart. Still NO BUY signal unless you are counter-trend trading like I'm doing. LOL..... Catching the falling knife.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #2878

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2879

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM daily: The move down for small caps continues..... IWM down around 15% since printing the 243.72 high marker in November. A look at the weekly too....

    IWM weekly: Week 9 since IWM moved below the 10 sma on the weekly chart. It has not been easy trying to trade small caps the last 12 months.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2880

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Moves down to, or back testing the 100 sma on the daily chart, have been good buy points in the past. Watching to see how this move down plays out.

    I placed a trade based on the daily pattern that SPY would bounce. A high risk counter-trend trade, but I liked the odds. We shall see if it turns into a trending move to trade or fails to confirm. LOL.... The SPY could also just keep moving lower...

    Long VXF and GDXJ.
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    Last edited by robo; 01-19-2022 at 08:45 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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