Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Hmmmmm.... CPI/PPI/Prime lending rate/10 year yield: Easy money gets you inflated stock prices and sometimes inflation..... The Fed wanted more inflation, and now they have it! But now the Fed might have to fight inflation by increasing rates faster and reducing their bond program. Maybe we should ask Kenny about this? We shall see how it all plays out.

The picture of the shooter is a 22 LR Vudoo...... Mine is on order and will take around 5 months to arrive. Used for serious plinking at the range.

https://vudoogunworks.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8BnGrvnrww

I still think the easy money has been made and one should be playing small ball this year....

For the Record: NONE of this matters to me for trading. I have a trading system and trade both ways. This data is for investors...... I'm NOT an INVESTOR!

I remain flat VTI and VXF:

"When I left the government many years ago I left a portion of my money in the TSP and rolled over the rest into an IRA so I could do more active trading. Now I'm getting a little sick of getting screwed every time I make one of our two precious IFTs each month. The trade is made and my account sits for four hours and gets eaten alive. It actually makes me consider moving the rest of my TSP balance into my IRA. Would that be ironic if TSP Talk guy gets out of the TSP?"

I hear you Brother: I mainly use the TSP now for the G Fund. I will be taking another go at moving some money in the TSP account just to see how my system works out. LOL..... However, since I'm close to 70 now the percentages will be much smaller then I use to do in the old days. With that said, I still think small ball is the game to play this year in the TSP. All in Big moves based on what I'm currently seeing will be more like gambling in my opinion.

VXF daily after the close: Still to many sellers.....

NASDAQ - make or break is here (again)
Watch closely if NASDAQ closes below the the most recent low close. 15600 is a key level to watch (futs). We are "well" below the 100 day, but the longer term trend line is coming in around these levels. Imagine we tried the 200 day moving average eventually? That is the next big support. Second chart shows Nomura's tech sentiment. No comments are needed...
https://themarketear.com/

Cycles: I mentioned the cycle data would not be good if SPX could not hold the 10 sma on the daily.

SPY weekly: A close below the 3 ema and the 10 sma on the weekly chart. Not what you want to see this deep into the current cycle as the cycle dude is pointing out.

Bearish Reversal

Forming a swing low and closing back above the 50 day MA on Tuesday looked, in real time, as if day 24 hosted an early DCL. That was negated on Thursday.

Stocks were rejected by the declining 10 day MA and formed a lower swing high on Thursday to close below the 50 day MA. This sets up the declining trend line and indicates a continuation of the daily cycle decline — which makes Thursday, day 27.

With price below the 10 week MA and the 10 week MA beginning to turn lower, this can turn into an intermediate cycle decline and the long over due yearly cycle decline, which I plan to discuss in the Weekend Report.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...sh-reversal-4/

SPY daily/monthly: Hmmmmm....YCL coming? We shall see!

NASDAQ - back to very oversold, but...

NDX closed right in the big support "congestion" area. We closed below the 100 day moving average, but the longer term trend is still around these levels/slightly lower. 200 day is some 3% lower. RSI is oversold, but as we all know, oversold can stay oversold for longer time periods, especially when RSI "establishes" low levels (note RSI in February and September 2021). Big oscillations and a non trend remains the theme, but watch this closely should we close slightly lower...
https://themarketear.com/

SPY monthly: We "WILL" see a tag of the 50 sma and a RSI ( under 30 again) on the monthly chart. The odds continue to increase that it "COULD" happen this year. I will just trade what is happen not what I think will happen because my magic 8 ball is broken. My point is investors should watch this, as the insiders continue to sell. One would think we will see a bounce soon...

I remain flat VTI and VXF:

Long GDXJ:

SPY daily: A gap down below the 3 ema, 10 sma, 20 sma, and the 50 sma on the daily chart. We shall see if buyers come in and save the day.

Up next - Free Lunch Friday and Easy Money Monday. Are we moving into a YCL in the months ahead? We shall see..... A tag of the 50 sma on the daily chart has been a winner for traders. I be watching....

I have NO positions in the SPY index: Flat We never got a confirmed buy signal after moving back above the 3 ema. Waiting to see a close back above the 10 sma. The whipsaws continue as I wait for the next confirmed trend.....

Small Caps"

IWM remains very ugly..... Testing the lower BB again.... I might take a ST trade. The pattern indicates high odds for a winner..... Small Ball for position size.

VXF daily: Testing the lows, and a lower BB tag..... We shall see if buyers come in.

Long VXF..... Will we get a higher low? STBD! (It just under cut, but I like to use the daily closing price) Looks ugly and remains in a downtrend!

This is a counter trend trade and my trading system remains in a cash position. Doing some ST trading and playing some small ball!

VTI daily: VTI and the 100 sma pattern on the daily chart..... Time to buy or add? Waiting to see how we close, and this is NOT the same market we have been trading in the last year. Get ready for Bigger Swings and lots of whipsaws. Keep in mind that I BE ONLY trading and NOT INVESTING these indexes.