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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2773

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Hmmmm.....

    The bull in the top 10 shares...and what happened after

    Interesting chart by JPM on how markets have performed when the top 10 shares rose significantly. Current bull has been going on for some time. This chart has a lot of implications for overall allocations and hedging. Imagine some of the big ones start to reverse?
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2774

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    At some point we WILL move into a yearly cycle low. How far it will move below the 10 month sma is STBD, but we remain very stretched above the mean. I use the 50 sma on the month chart for the mean. As you can see this will snap back some at some point, and we are deep into the current cycle.

    I will post a few monthly charts below to look over and note how deep we are into this cycle, and how stretched we are above the mean's for these indexes.

    I still think the easy money has been made, and in my opinion one "SHOULD NOT be making all in moves one taking early positions in 2022.... Time to see how things place out this deep into a yearly cycle and this stretched above the mean.

    A comment from Kaplan:

    The primary significance of recent all-time highs for large-cap U.S. indices is its message about when the U.S. equity bear market is most likely to end with a crushing bottoming pattern and frequent downward spikes.


    Nearly all bear markets end with repeated downward spikes as panic waves sweep among Bogleheads and others who classically sell near the exact nadirs of bottoming patterns. With all-time highs near the end of December and/or perhaps in early January 2022, the end of the bear market will likely occur near the end of 2023 for some assets and in 2024 for many others. Securities which typically bottom early in the cycle, such as gold mining and silver mining shares and many emerging-market securities, have probably already completed their lowest points of the decade. These undervalued assets will keep experiencing corrections, some of them sharp, but they will likely make mostly higher lows for the next decade or so rather than the lower highs which large-cap U.S. shares will mostly do until around 2024. The biggest percentage losses going forward will tend to be concentrated in those assets which have the highest multiples to their respective fair-value levels. This includes the most-hyped and most-loved stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, real estate, and especially cryptocurrencies. I would be surprised if any cryptocurrencies can avoid dropping less than 95% from top to bottom.
    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
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    Last edited by robo; 12-31-2021 at 02:09 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2775

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI monthly: The total stock market, and one I like to trade. I DO NOT know what will happen next. I'm just pointing out some Risk/Reward indicators one should look over before making you next 100% all in move.

    VXF monthly: VXF is close to the S Fund

    .
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2776

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: A close below the 3 ema on the daily chart Friday is warning indicator for me. We shall see how we start out the new year. One would think a gap up!



    The first domino fell on Friday.

    After consolidating below resistance for 2 months, stocks broke out convincingly above the resistance level on Monday. Stocks became stretched above the 10 day MA on Monday and started to consolidate, which will help to allow the 10 day MA catch up to price. However, stocks formed a swing high on Friday. If stocks deliver bearish follow through and close below the resistance level that will signal the daily cycle decline. And may set the ‘dominos’ in motion to lead to the intermediate and yearly cycle declines. I discuss this in the Weekend Report.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...irst-domino-3/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2777

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Easy money and party like it's 1999

    https://twitter.com/jessefelder
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2778

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    2021 has been a year of extremes.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2779

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Awesome analyses and charts Robo! Thank you! Best wishes to you and everyone in 2022!
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  15. #2780

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Awesome analyses and charts Robo! Thank you! Best wishes to you and everyone in 2022!
    Thanks, and the same to you!
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2781

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    A look back at the 2000 top. We shall see how we start this year out. A gap up at the open..... Tags at the upper BB for both.....
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    Last edited by robo; 01-03-2022 at 08:43 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #2782

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF daily: Still having trouble at the 200 sma on the daily chart
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2783

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I will say that expectations of the Dow Jones is very low this year.

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  23. #2784

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX 30 minute:

    VIX daily:


    VIX - getting there

    VIX has crashed since the early December panic. VIX is approaching the "new" natural floor level at these levels. Expecting much lower VIX from here is probably a very late trade. Ask yourself: how much downside vs upside is there in VIX from here and then assign some probabilities. Regular readers of TME are familiar with our overall view on volatility and protection: "buy it when you can, not when you must".
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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