Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Front running the January effect
Never forget, January is the monster inflow month. Front running the January effect at these levels in the short term looks slightly late, but don't be surprised if your shorts are killing you lately...
https://themarketear.com/

SPY daily - Buying Panic? We shall see how it plays out as the trend remains up! The SPY tagged the upper BB as buyers push the SPY higher.....

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

4h
8 PM, December 27, 2021

Buying Panic

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Stocks Cross Above Resistance Line
After consolidating below resistance for 2 months, breaking out convincingly above the resistance level can lead to a a trending move. Stops can be moved to the new breakout level.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...sistance-line/

Bubble update: Split market

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

SPY daily: Day 6 since the low was made..... One should expect some slower action now..... For me, I just go to cash and don't stay long once the upper BB is tagged.

Flat after this run: Buying a small position of VXX for a ST trade.


SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
46m
3:30

DJIA Higher while NDX, IWM, SPX Falling
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Put hate is back
Here we are again, people hating puts at market highs. Hedge frustration continues where people load up on puts at local market lows and puke puts at local market highs. Let´s see if this time is different....

https://themarketear.com/


SPX - time to chill?
The Santa rally played out this year again. Note the SPX is trading in the upper part of the trend channel that has been in place since September. So far, this is the first doji candle in a long time (indicating indecision). Watching closely for possible reversal clues.

The great volatility divide is back
Yes, bond and equity people are once again starting to price "fear" in different ways. Watch this gap closely. Our most recent equity vol logic has played out well as VIX has come down sharply over past weeks (recall the latest from the VIX guy here). At current levels it is too late to sell volatility and we are soon leaning into the inverse, i.e playing long volatility, especially using long premium strategies for directional plays. More on this later this week.

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

14m
8 PM, December 28, 2021

Volume Lighter Yet As Upside Momentum Wanes
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

SPY daily: The move up continues and so do the risks!

VXF weekly: Still having trouble holding above the 50 sma on the weekly.

SevenSentinels Retweeted
Mac10
@SuburbanDrone
·
24m
The S&P Tech sector keeps chopping to new all time highs amid chasmic divergences and high volatility. Powered by MSFT and AAPL.

We haven't seen this much realized vol at an all time high since Feb. '21.

The second highest was Nov. 2007 ATH.

Third highest was Feb. 2020:
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

SPY/VIX/VXX 2 hour chart: Headed into the last hour of trading and the trend remains up for the SPY!

The VIX puke

VIX has halved since the intra day highs in early December. People have gone from chasing VIX in panic to almost selling VIX in panic lately. VIX isn't dirt cheap yet, but given the many macro narratives coming up, VIX has little downside from here according to us. We have started looking at long vol trade set ups, but ideally we would like to get that call from the VIX guy. Note the "gap" between VIX and VIX over past months.
https://themarketear.com/

VIX getting ahead of itself?
All vols are down lately, but VXTLT remains elevated compared to VIX. Nothing new really, but watch the gap between the two closely.
https://themarketear.com/



LOL..... Let's Party! (Second Chart)

Haven´t seen this since 1999
Nothing new really, but households are the biggest owners as well as the biggest "punters" these days. Everything is great as long as the market continues marching higher. Let´s see how long term the current punters will prove to be should we ever reverse lower...