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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2629

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Insiders Selling:
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2630

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Gold – Triple Convergence
    by likesmoneystudies

    Gold formed a swing low on Friday.

    Gold printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 44, placing it late in its timing band for a DCL. Gold formed a swing low on Friday. A close above triple convergence of the 200 day MA, the 50 day MA, and 10 day MA will have us label day 44 as the DCL. Gold is currently in a daily downtrend. Gold will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...e-convergence/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2631

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDX daily: A rough week for the gold miners after moving below the 50 sma on the daily. Moving below the 50 sma on most indexes usually brings in additional sellers.

    Bottom Line: The trend remains down. I currently have a small position of GDX.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2632

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF daily: The selling for small and mid caps continues.....

    I have a small position of VXF and added a few more shares Friday. It remains a losing trade as I try and catch the falling knife! This a ST trade, and I will sell if we don't bounce soon.

    Long: GDX, VXF, UWM, and NUGT
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2633

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM daily: Remains in a downtrend as the selling continues......

    I now have a small position of UWM that I bought Friday during the beat down as additional sellers throw in the towel. LOL.... That might be the correct move...... We shall see how next week plays out.

    Keep in mind I'm ST trading and these positions are small. I'm playing an oversold bounce, but so far we are seeing additional selling after a gap up in the morning.
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    Last edited by robo; 12-04-2021 at 10:16 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2634

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Capital Excess
    John Mauldin John Mauldin
    |
    Thoughts from the Frontline
    |
    December 3, 2021

    Irrational Exuberance
    Worse, the incoming cash raises valuations at a time when other incoming cash is doing the same thing. Here’s a chart we shared in Clips That Matter last week. It shows year-over-year money flow into equities. You may notice a slight change recently.

    Needless to say, but I’ll still say it: This is not normal. Everything we see about today’s markets screams “overvalued.” Let’s look at some data from my friend Ed Easterling at Crestmont Research who provides the raw numbers to, again, my friends at Advisor Perspectives (it’s good to have a lot of friends).
    https://www.mauldineconomics.com/fro...capital-excess
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2635

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Some sure bought this dip. I did too..... We shall see how next week plays out. Like the chart John posted above......

    SentimenTrader
    @sentimentrader
    ·
    Dec 3
    All aboard a derailed train.

    This week, speculators in major equity index futures bought aggressively, moving to a net long position of over $100 billion.

    That's nearly twice as large as any other position extreme, in either direction, ever.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2636

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    So far a nice bounce for my UWM trade..... I would like to see IWM move back above the 10 sma on a daily closing price. We shall see how the rest of the week plays out. I will post my VXF and IWM charts after the first hour of trading.

    VXF before the open: Back above the 3 ema on the daily and working on the 50 sma. The 10 sma be up next and that is an important one to me for trend trading.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...7&a=1072787352

    SPX - welcome to the vol puke

    SPX is down 60 handles from all time highs and VIX is down 12% as of writing, but (still) trading at 24. Fear has been huge during this correction. On Nov 30 we outlined our short volatility logic post the VIX guy calling us with his latest ideas. We reminded our readers and we wrote: "After all, volatility is mean reverting and our VIX guy has continued holding the perfect 100% inverse track record. Will he nail it again?" So far he has nailed it, but given the fact a vol shock takes time to "feed" through the system, there should be more potential for vols to calm down.
    https://themarketear.com/
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    Last edited by robo; 12-07-2021 at 09:16 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2637

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF daily: Ok, a nice gap up and the 10 sma be up next!

    VTI daily: Looks good so far.... Back above the 3 ema, 10 sma and 50 sma on the daily chart..... It sure looks like a DCL....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #2638

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Traders are panicking the most since the pandemic
    Jason Goepfert
    Jason Goepfert
    Published: 2021-12-07 at 0700 CSTAn iffy market environment with hints of pessimism

    Over the 20 years we've been publishing here, we've had the good fortune to test thousands of strategies. There is a reason we keep coming back to sentiment-related measures - because they worked more consistently over a multi-month time frame than any other.

    One of the keys, however, is context. Investors behave differently during bull markets than they do during bear markets, and both of those are different than trading ranges.

    For the first time since the March 2020 surge in buying interest, there is reason to question the trends underlying most securities and investors' willingness to buy the dip. Within indexes like the S&P 500, trends are mostly healthy and not unlike other pullbacks over the past 18 months. But it's a different story across the broader universe of stocks.
    https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...66a-1271291994
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2639

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDX daily: Above the 3 ema on the daily and the 10 sma be up next. Following stocks as BTDer's are back! Waiting to see how this week plays out...
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...0&a=1027437746
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    Last edited by robo; 12-07-2021 at 10:57 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2640

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL..... It's very possible, but I have been hearing this for sometime now. Maybe we are getting closer as the Fed continues to talk about reducing its buy program.

    MACD, M2 And Millennials Indicate A Major Correction Is Imminent
    Dec. 07, 2021 10:50 AM ET

    Summary

    I recently showed you a historically overvalued market that was long-term overbought and running on leverage.
    Now, MACD is showing extreme readings that indicate a correction is imminent, and it could be epic.

    On the liquidity front, the M2 money supply is plunging.
    If you "believe in" risk management, I haven't seen these many signals and circumstances line up in 25 years.
    This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Margin of Safety Investing.

    I have run a series of articles now since August suggesting that early 2022 could be in line for a significant stock market correction. In this piece, I suggested that fundamentals, technicals, and leverage all were lining the stock market up for a correction:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/447...+Article+Smart
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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