Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

SPY daily with 2 hours to go: Working on another ATH or will it be a lower high? We shall see.......

Bottom Line: The SPY trend remains up!

"It's the 13th and 14th Hindenburg Omens of the year"

See chart and comments at the link below.


"Still, I find that tracking the number of signals over certain time periods has a great deal of value at forecasting increasing volatility. The history of the Nasdaq Composite over the past couple of decades is a good example of this. This week saw the index trigger its 13th and 14th Hindenburg Omens of the year. In the past, this degree of persistent dispersion has been a consistent precursor to corrections or bear markets in the index."

The Fasten Seat Belt Sign Just Lit Up

jessefelder
November 17, 2021

https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/...n-just-lit-up/

Speaking of Volatility......

VIV daily chart and the move under 15ish pattern: It remains in play.... We will hit 25ish in the weeks ahead? Don't know. However, I have a small position of VXX for a hedge to protect my VTI position. My VTI position is small too this late in the daily cycle.

For the record: I "DO NOT" use this type of data for trading, but read all the free stuff I can get from Jesse Felder

VTI daily with RSI/TSI and VXX: Added TSI due to some using oscillators for trading/making moves. I don't, but I do monitor them.

Some tweets

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
1h
Wednesday 1:40

SS LOLR STS
Up Down Down
1/6 1/6 0/7

Breadth: -1500/-1800 ( First Chart)

NYSE McO: -38
NASDAQ McO: -25


SentimenTrader (Second Chart)
@sentimentrader
·
21h
Just your friendly neighborhood reminder that Wall Street is cyclical.

True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
·
Nov 11
#ElonMusk has been doing in 2021 exactly what most other top corporate insiders have. This is consistent with how the world's most-experienced investors have behaved in 2021 and which is the exact opposite of what the vast majority of asset-chasing amateurs have been doing.

Elon has been selling shares as many insiders have been doing.

Ok, another easy money week!
StockTrader'sAlmanac
@AlmanacTrader
·
21h
November Monthly Option Expiration Week: DJIA Best - DJIA has been up 14 of the last 19 years on November’s monthly option expiration Friday with an average gain of 0.49%. By the way, it is not a mistake that November Op-Ex day has the same...
https://twitter.com/almanactrader?lang=en

https://twitter.com/elerianm

Seasonality talk again: Never forget - NASDAQ seasonality should kick in soon (again)...or?

For the record: I DO NOT trade based on Sentiment or Seasonality. Nothing wrong with tracking it...... Like a gentle breeze blowing at your back if you are long stocks.

Bottom Line: The trend for the SPY remains up!


LOL...... Why not? Just BTD as the trend remains up.

Stop thinking. Keep on buying

Sanford Bernstein says stay "all-in". Bernstein Equity strategy "slightly" bullish: "Despite the phenomenal performance of equities in the US (and Europe) year to date, we remain overweight. It has been a knockout year for earnings growth, and as a result, equity funds have seen $1 trillion in inflows over the past twelve months. While valuations are expensive compared to history, we believe equity outperformance can continue for three reasons: (1) earnings growth forecasts for 2022 are quite low (US consensus at ~7.5% growth and these are the most pessimistic assumptions in our forecasts), (2) a return of share buybacks ought to support the market (12% higher vs. 2019 levels, 36% higher in Europe), and (3) there is still another $1 trillion of cash sitting on the sidelines in money market funds. Fundamentally, we also believe real yields help justify market valuations – and historically, we’ve noted that equities can still generate positive returns even when real yields normalize back towards zero from negative."

SPY daily: 2 hours to go and the SPY is back above the 10 sma on the daily. BTDer's came in after moving below, and 90 billion a week from the Fed's help out too.....

We shall see how we close.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up!

We shall see how this plays out. Waiting on STS.... STS = DOWN 3/4

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

6m
1 PM

Declines, Declining Volume, New Lows Expanding

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
46m
Thursday 2:20

SS LOLR STS
Down Down Down
0/7 0/7 3/4

Breadth: -1200/-1800

NYSE McO: -47
NASDAQ McO: -47

Well, I have been hearing this for sometime now, as extremes get more extreme.

Record selling by insiders is setting up stocks for a big fall, says contrarian investor
Published: Nov. 18, 2021 at 7:22 a.m. ET
By Barbara Kollmeyer
comments
Critical information for the U.S. trading day

A contrarian voice has been Morgan Stanley, who is telling clients to resist buying U.S. stocks. From that same neck of the woods, our call of the day from the True Contrarian blog and newsletter’s chief executive, Steven Jon Kaplan, has a warning for investors who have been piling into this market.

“People are really underappreciating the degree of risk that they’re taking because now that we have — especially for the really big megacap names — even greater overvaluation than we’ve had before, the downside risk is extremely high,” Kaplan told MarketWatch in an interview on Wednesday.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/re...?mod=home-page

SPY daily: Consolidation or a lower high? We shall see how it plays out.....

Bottom Line: The trend remains up.


We will start off with a look at the Nasdaq.

While the Nasdaq closed below the 10 day MA on day 27, it really did not satisfy the parameters for a DCL. Now the Nasdaq is breakout out to new all-time highs.

Usually breakouts that occur late in the daily cycle are often reversed. But with the flood of global liquidity and stocks entering the most bullish time of the year, this maybe all the correction we will see, so stops should be adjusted to the new breakout level.

The S&P remain is consolidation. A break below the day 27 low of 4630.66 would allow stocks to complete their daily cycle decline. turn the 10 day MA lower in order to complete its daily cycle decline. But close above the 4718.50 level may see the S&P follow the Nasdaq higher.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/

Some Stuff from Jesse Felder's free weekend update

https://twitter.com/jessefelder


The Consequence Of Monetizing The Debt Is Inflation'


Topdown Charts
@topdowncharts
This chart shows the ratio of trading volumes of leveraged long vs leveraged short US equity ETFs.

It’s basically a sentiment indicator where spikes indicate excessive risk taking on the long side

More notes: https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/we...rm-14-november $SPX $SPY

https://twitter.com/topdowncharts/st...eid=5b348a9ca0

Opinion: Gen Z is wildly unrealistic about how much money stocks, crypto and other investments will give them for retirement
Last Updated: Nov. 17, 2021 at 6:09 p.m. ET
First Published: Nov. 17, 2021 at 7:25 a.m. ET
By Mark Hulbert

The future always looks bright in a bull market

Yet even this finding, sobering as it is, is too optimistic.

That’s because today’s stock market is wildly overvalued, making it unlikely that it will produce a 6% inflation-adjusted annualized return in coming years.
Each of eight valuation measures with a long-term record of success suggests that stocks’ return in coming years will be below the historical average.
Some object to this bearish conclusion on the grounds that long-ago U.S. history is not relevant to the current stock market.
But this argument, while compelling on the surface, doesn’t hold water.

Consider what I found upon constructing a simple econometric model for each of the eight indicators, using only data back to 2000.
On average they are projecting that the S&P 500 over the next decade will produce an inflation-adjusted total return of minus 5.4%.

--Mark Hulbert, "Opinion: Gen Z Is Wildly Unrealistic About How Much Money Stocks, Crypto, and Other Investments Will Give Them for Retirement", MarketWatch.com, November 17, 2021.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ge...?mod=home-page