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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2473

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    COT: One I'm watching closely. This is NOT what you want to see......

    https://cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/

    Hmmmmm...... "Amid anxiety about global growth, the yen is soaring. The currency is racing higher as investors look for safe places for their money."

    We shall see how this plays out. Why do I always say that. Well, because my Magic 8 Ball is broken, and I don't know for sure how it play out.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2474

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Ok, another data point to watch? Maybe! The data on the chart indicates we could see some trouble ahead. However, in this market one never knows for sure. Plenty of stuff investors will have to look over.

    Jesse Felder Retweeted
    Not Jim Cramer
    @Not_Jim_Cramer


    16h
    Margin Debt Growth Rate Falls Below 50%...
    https://twitter.com/jessefelder
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2475

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Another hmmmmm...... Probably nothing!

    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics

    4h
    Can anyone solve this mystery, done with 21 contracts on Saturday? TIA
    https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics

    Plenty of Bullish tweets here lately
    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #2476

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX daily: LOL.... My VXX Beer Money trades have been losers lately..... You can see why on my tracking chart below.... The VXX has been smashed down...

    Tom McClellan
    @McClellanOsc

    Oct 22
    Spot VIX Index at 14.96 at the moment, but its most expensive futures contract is June 2022 at 24.95. That creates the biggest such spread since 2017. It means the VIX futures traders are not agreeing with the bullish SP500 options traders who are driving down the spot VIX.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2477

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Time To Raise Stops
    Posted on October 25, 2021

    On Thursday we discussed that stocks were ready to cross the line. Well, stocks closed above the previous daily cycle high on Monday.

    Stocks are only on week 3 for their new intermediate cycle. Monday was only day 14 for the new daily cycle. Right translated cycles often peak on or after day 30. So stocks are breaking out to new all time highs early in the intermediate cycle with still plenty of time in the current daily cycle. And the holiday season is right around the corner which is typically one of the most bullish times of the year. Stops can be raised to a close below the previous daily cycle high of 4545.85.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2478

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The 1 Trillion Dollar Inflow
    Global Equities logged >$1 Trillion dollars worth of inflows during the last 51 weeks and the start of positive vaccine news. This is the biggest market structure dynamic of the year. For context, the prior best rolling 51 week record was +$250 Billion. 2021 is 4x larger than the next best yearly inflow.

    Scott Rubner (GS): "I think the equity TINA money flow train keeps charging to close the year and accelerates aggressively in November. I calculate a significant, +$18B worth of non-fundamental equity demand every day this week and this increases with massive November monthly inflows and corporate demand after >47% of the S&P reports next week" . And remember - a large portion of every inflow dollar goes to Big Tech. (Goldman trading desk).
    Greed - Welcome Back
    Inflows are huge and people are forced to chase this market higher.

    Time for some extreme greed before the "top"?
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2479

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX daily: Another move under 15ish..... LOL... NO FEAR! VIX moving under 15 could mean it is close to a ST bounce.

    SPX - The Relatively Exuberant One
    Recall when VIX was the exuberant one during the early part of the latest melt up?

    Those days are gone. SPX has caught up fully and the "gap" between the two is gone. As a matter of fact, VIX has done very little over the past days, despite SPX printing new highs.

    VIX has a "natural floor"...so do not expect VIX to move much lower.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2480

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Hmmmmm... You don't say! BUY BUY BUY and NO FEAR..... Back to the melt-up comments for sure and this really has been a very nice rip up..... Probably not many shorts left standing.... The bears better throw in the towel... Today will be day 10 since my buy signal.... We shall see how the next DCL low plays out as most are calling this a NEW intermediate term cycle.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfAYz6p-mlw


    SPY daily: Bottom Line The trend remains up!

    The chances for an imminent correction just cratered
    Jason Goepfert
    Jason Goepfert
    Published: 2021-10-26 at 0700 CDT
    The most benchmarked index in the world is trying to hold a breakout to record highs. Supporting its case is the fact that most of its stocks have been rising, and breadth within the index confirms its good performance.

    Even though the S&P 500 settled back a bit on Friday, most of the stocks in the index gained ground. That was enough to push the S&P's Cumulative Advance/Decline Line to a new high, the first in more than 30 sessions.
    Among other major indexes, the Nasdaq 100 has also seen a breakout in its Advance/Decline Line but other indexes have not.

    Many times over the past couple of decades, we've discussed the idea that stocks are less likely to suffer a large drawdown in the following months when the advance/decline line breaks out to a new high.

    Since 1928, the S&P 500 was three times more likely to suffer a 10% decline at some point within the next three months if the S&P's Advance/Decline Line was not at a multi-year high. When it did break out to a new high, there was only a 4.6% probability of a 10% or greater decline within the next few months.
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    Last edited by robo; 10-26-2021 at 08:29 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2481

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    You think! I say very low right now.....

    Realized Volatility Is Low
    S&P 500 5-day realized volatility is below its 10th percentile since 1970. S&P 500 5-day realized volatility since 1970.
    https://themarketear.com/

    SPY daily: Day 10 since my buy signal.....


    Good trading!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #2482

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX daily: I'm watching it closely too..... We shall see how this move below 15ish plays out in the days ahead. LOL..... Who needs protection......


    Watching VIX Closely
    It's been a while since we saw both SPX and VIX move higher in tandem.Note the move higher in both earlier today.

    Second chart shows the slightly longer term gap between SPX and VIX inverted we have been pointing out over the past weeks. On the way up VIX was the "leader".

    VIX has reached the "natural floor" and has not been willing to move much lower from here.

    The relevant question to ask yourself here is how much can VIX move lower vs how much can it move higher (as well as do you need protection or not)....
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2483

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Bullish Expectations
    Posted on October 26, 2021

    Stocks closed again at all time highs.

    Stocks are in the first daily cycle for a new intermediate cycle. The first daily cycle typically forms as a right translated daily cycle that often peaks on or after day 30. Right now stocks are getting a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Stops should be honored if stocks break below the previous daily cycle high of 4545.85, Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp.../expectations/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2484

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL.....

    Risks, A Few, But Then Again, Too Few To Mention...
    Markets will probably never go down again in our life-time. Stocks have of course reached a permanently high plateau. You know the drill...However, at fresh all-time-highs it is always prudent to re-visit the "risks" to the market. Please see a quick run-down of what the consensus risks to the equity bull are right now.

    https://themarketear.com/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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