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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2461

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Ok, we be testing the 452.60 marker...... We shall see how it plays out.....

    Bottom Line: The SPY trend remains up, but the ST data for the VIX remains a concern. I'm going to reduce a tad more and add to my beer money protection trade. Buying some VXX...... That be a small position.....

    VTI daily: The trend remains up!
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    Last edited by robo; 10-20-2021 at 01:20 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2462

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Nasdaq and anything tech down today. The "take out a HELOC to buy stocks crowd" must be switching to bitcoin ETF's today.

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  5. #2463

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Jesse Felder Retweeted
    Tom McClellan
    @McClellanOsc
    ·
    6h
    This relationship is not a perfect correlation, but it is a really interesting one. It has gone off track when the Fed puts a thumb on the scale.
    https://twitter.com/jessefelder
    https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc

    Jesse Felder Retweeted
    David Rosenberg
    @EconguyRosie
    ·
    10h
    Atlanta Fed down to -1.6% SAAR for Q3 real final sales. It was +2.3% at the end of July. At no point in the past 70 years have they contracted this much without a recession taking hold. We'll just have to be patient and wait for Wile E. Coyote to start looking down.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2464

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Another go at the ATH...... SPY remains stretched above its 10 sma on the daily chart. Looks like more sideways action while it catches up or a quick shakeout lower to test it is possible.

    Bottom Line : The trend remains up as we get deeper into the current daily cycle.


    Update: The pullback into the half cycle low is getting closer..... Not a time to chase or add to your SPY position just yet in my opinion. I have been peeling off some profits as we moved higher and tested the all time highs.

    VXX daily: Continues to get cheaper..... LOL.... Who needs protection in this market! A waste of money.....
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    Last edited by robo; 10-21-2021 at 12:49 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2465

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Update: The pullback into the half cycle low is getting closer..... Not a time to chase or add to your SPY position just yet in my opinion. I have been peeling off some profits as the SPY has been moving higher and testing the all time highs. I have not made any money on my beer money trades using VXX as it continues to be smashed lower. I use VXX as a hedge sometimes, but call them Beer Money Trades because they are small.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2466

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDX daily: A NICE RUN...... I'm expecting some sideways action or a pullback into the half cycle low....

    The TSI pattern is clear to me and I use it as an indicator for trading in this sector. I don't buy when the TSI is getting close to (+50) I take some profits. I like to buy when TSI is getting close to (-50) which I did. That is why those red and green lines are on the chart ( -50 and +50 ) One is for adding shares and the other is for reducing. I use other tools too..... The TSI data is more like a warning signal that a buy or sell/add or reduce shares is coming. Keep in mind I mainly waiting extremes to trade in this sector. LOL..... Normally you get one a few times a year.... Just using TSI for trading is not going to get it. That can be seen on the current patterns on the daily chart below. Charts don't tell you everything, but they can help you track things. Since I'm a trend trader and a cycle tracker they are useful for tracking the indexes I like to trade. I also like to use them for tracking ratios. Like the dollar and GLD.

    Good trading to those trading this sector. It is NOT EASY to trade.
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    Last edited by robo; 10-21-2021 at 01:17 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  13. #2467

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL..... It sure looks that way! (See comments below)

    Bottom line: The SPY trend remains UP!

    Buy the dip. Buy the rip

    Last week, retail market order imbalance saw a net buying of +$4.3B, the highest weekly inflow since July, and coincided with a Tuesday-to-Tuesday weekly Russell 3000 return of 3.8%, the strongest performance since November 2020.

    Watch Out If The Bitcoin "Narrative" Is Driving Everything?
    If that is the case, then maybe equities are getting short term "stretched"?

    BTC vs SPX in October is basically the same chart...until recently.
    https://themarketear.com/

    Finally The Bulls Are Joining In
    Latest AAII bullish sentiment readings show bulls are back from hibernation. We ask ourselves if our "VIX guy" is included in this survey?

    Sharp move to the upside, but do we need to test recent highs before anything meaningful occurs to the downside?
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2468

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: What's not to like? Another ATH and VXX continues to get smashed down..... There just isn't much Fear out there right now....


    SPY after the close: It looks nice, but remains stretched over the 10 sma on the daily chart for those of you that use Risk Management.

    LOL..... Guess what is coming up? "Free Lunch Friday" and "Easy Money Monday"

    We shall see how that plays out...... Sure, there is lots of crap to worry about, but I just trade the trend and ignore all the noise. I treade what is happening and not what I think will happen. LOL..... If you are an investor you have a lot to worry about right now.

    Bottom Line: The trend for the SPY remains up and it just made another ATH. That is what I see...... and I trade what is happening.

    For the record: I have sold most of my long positions and will be going flat shortly after the close.

    I don't think anyone even cares about the data below from this tweet. However, traders use to care about it before we had all this money coming into the market from the Fed.

    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels

    1h
    3 PM

    SPX Tests ATH Via Nearly 1000 Net Declines
    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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    Last edited by robo; 10-21-2021 at 04:29 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2469

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Stocks closed at a new all time high on Thursday.

    Quite frankly I was a bit surprised to see stocks close above the pervious all time on the first try. Still, stocks are quite stretched above the 10 day MA. They may require some consolidation to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.

    The decline into the ICL has stretched the ‘elastic band’ lower. This quick recovery is a very good sign. A bullish break higher could trigger a final melt-up phase.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...ross-the-line/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #2470

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Hmmmm..... I agree we are coming into the best 6 months, but the SPY remains stretched above the 10 sma on the daily in the ST. Note the chart Tom post's on his daily reports. Next week looks to have a poor seasonality pattern. We shall see how it plays out. I don't use this data for trading, but do track it.

    Seasonality Is Huge
    Q4 is bullish, period. As BofA notes, "75 of past 95 years = Q4 rally in S&P".

    According to BofA we have only had 7 negative Q4's since the 1987 crash...almost all were associated with some sort of a "wobble" in credit.

    Everybody is now bullish the seasonality pattern. Is this when it stops to work?
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2471

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Does this even matter anymore?

    Equity Weighting High
    Equity assets as a percent of total assets is currently at its highest level since at least 2010.
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2472

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    How will you trade or invest if this is just the start of a Commodity Bull? What happens to rates? Did you know I bonds look to head to over 7% returns soon? Got any I bonds? I'm still holding some SLV..... The miners are looking good too.... That is how I will trade it....

    Some opinions about the markets. I just trade the trend......

    Commodity bull should still have 5-7 years to go

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sIqN_Lllns&t=11s


    Gold update: Don’t get complacent

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQWcVgb-eZM

    Stocks Surge As Earnings Roll-In, But Is Risk Gone? 10-22-21
    by Lance Roberts | Oct 23, 2021 | alerts, Markets/Economy, Real Investment Advice

    Our concern is that while the expected rally from support occurred, there has been very little “conviction” to that advance. Therefore, we tend to agree with David Tepper of Appaloosa Management when he stated:

    “Sometimes there are times to make money…sometimes there are times not to lose money.“

    While the market is within the seasonally strong year, the risk of a correction remains. Such is particularly the case as we head into 2022.
    https://bullsnbears.com/2021/10/23/s...gone-10-22-21/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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