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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2449

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Weekly cycle low: Weekly cycles average 18 to 25 weeks. This sure looks like a weekly cycle low, but we need to make new highs before we can say for sure. VTI is grinding higher, and is above the 10 week sma and the 3 week ema, but that doesn't mean another whipsaw isn't coming my way.

    VTI daily: Looks good..... We shall see how it handles a tag of the upper BB on the daily chart.
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    Last edited by robo; 10-17-2021 at 10:43 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2450

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Ok, "Easy Money Monday is up next"

    SPY/VXX daily: (My chart 3) Odds are above average for a (ST) short-term pullback, but that doesn't mean we will get one. (Chart 3)

    Second comment: I'm sure watching the VIX (Chart 2)

    Do you trust big bond or small equity people?
    Bond volatility has continued to move higher since mid Sep. At the same time, VIX has continued the "epic" reset.

    https://themarketear.com/

    This gap is becoming rather extreme here. Time to watch it carefully...
    FOMO cash going into Equities (Chart 1)



    Recent flow activity suggests a portion of the record level of US cash assets will be deployed into equities. Households, mutual funds, pension funds and foreign investors hold $19 trillion of US cash assets, accounting for 68% of total US cash assets and reflecting a $4 trillion rise vs. their pre-pandemic holdings. Goldman: "We expect some of this cash will shift into equities. US ETF and mutual fund net inflows YTD are the highest in any year since at least 2001 (Exhibit 6). The ratio of equity to bond inflows in the US is near a record high".
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    Last edited by robo; 10-17-2021 at 06:28 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2451

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Hmmmmmmm... I will be watching to see how this plays out!

    "Notice the multi-year extreme commercial long positions in the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, both safe-haven currencies which outperform when global growth is generally contracting:"

    Kaplan

    True Contrarian
    @TrueContrarian

    4h
    My prediction: the most important development of the next few years will be when the money which flooded into the market in 2021 floods out of the market sooner or later
    https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/


    Free COT data: I "DO NOT USE" this data for trading, but it does provide some clues....
    https://cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2452

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Wealth Is In The Denominator
    Print Friendly, PDF & Email




    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
    President, Hussman Investment Trust

    October 2021

    Simply put, investors should be fully prepared for a very long period in which stocks essentially go nowhere in an interesting way. Nothing in our discipline relies on that possibility, even though it reflects merely run-of-the-mill assumptions supported by more than a century of market cycles. In contrast, passive investors are resting their future on the historically unfounded hope that this possibility can be ruled out.

    From a historical perspective, it’s interesting that while the valuations preceding the 1987 crash were nowhere near those of 1929 or 2000, the total return of the S&P 500 outperformed Treasury bills by less than 1% annually during the nearly 22 year period from August 1987 to March 2009, despite two intervening speculative bubbles. As for the 2000 peak, after more than a decade of negative total returns, investors needed the most extreme speculative bubble and largest Federal Reserve stick-save in history just to get the 20-year total return of the S&P 500 2.5% over the depressed level of T-bill returns. Given current extremes, investors must now rely on a “permanently high plateau” in market valuations order to outperform T-bills. Indeed passive investors now fully rely on the assumption that market valuations will never, ever reach – much less fall below – historical norms again.
    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211015/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2453

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI daily: Will these VTI gaps fill this week? My focus remains on the VIX for this week. VXX tagged the lower BB and VTI tagged the upper BB. We shall see how this plays out. The Bulls have the edge since this is "Easy Money Money"
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2454

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI daily: A nice bounce as buyers remain in control...... "Easy Money Monday" remains in play and VXX smashed back down...... We shall see how we close...

    Are traders still BTD or STR?
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2455

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI daily after the close: The move up continues as "Easy Money Monday" be over.

    SPY daily cycle:

    Stocks Deliver Bullish Follow Through

    We discussed last week that stocks needed to close above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.
    Stocks closed convincingly above the declining trend line on Thursday then deliverered bullish follow through on Friday and Monday to close above both the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...low-through-6/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2456

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY Daily, Weekly and Monthly: It looks like the SPY is on its way to test the high.....

    Charts don't tell you what the future will bring. It's just a history lesson of the past and what is happening in real-time. However, they can give you clues. I'm a trend trader and the current trend is UP. I trade what is happening not what I think will happen.

    Good Trading to all those that have trading accounts.
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    Last edited by robo; 10-19-2021 at 10:20 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2457

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDX daily: Day 11 since the buy signal...... Day 14 since tagging and moving above the 3 ema which I like to use for ST trading. (ST= short-term trading)

    SLV and GDX still looking good, but probably getting closer to the next shake-out.... This is a tough sector to trade.....

    GDX weekly: Above the 10 week sma

    GLD weekly: Trouble at the 10 week sma and starting to see some compression.

    IAU daily: You can see for yourself!

    IAU daily: Now you can see it all..... Still below the April high marker, but lots of swings since then. Not an easy sector to trade.
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    Last edited by robo; 10-19-2021 at 11:06 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #2458

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily after the close: The move higher continues, but a tad stretched above the 10 sma on the daily. One should expect a move sideways in the days ahead. I had a few long positions and I'm reducing by 1/2 before the close and taking another beer money trade using VXX.

    SDS tagging the lows, but probably due to slippage.

    VTI daily after the close: The trend remains up as we are in a new daily cycle.

    VXX after the close: Continues to be smashed down. Probably not many Bear's left standing after this move up the last few days. Looks like lots of short-covering to me...... The gaps up keep adding up.....

    Good Trading to those that can!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2459

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: I have to agree it has been a nice bounce.....

    Bottom Line: The trend remains up, but the VXX current pattern is worth watching and maybe adding some protection for the short-term action.

    Jason Goepfert
    Published: 2021-10-20 at 0700 CDT

    Stocks in the S&P 500 Have Made a Stunning Comeback
    At various points during the summer, there were odd stretches where indexes like the S&P 500 were pushing higher but with a troubling lack of participation.

    Each time, the situations resolved by the indexes moving even higher. As the indexes stumbled in September, though, there was a quick washout among stocks. By September 20, fewer than 10% of stocks in that index held above their 10-day moving averages.

    Then buyers stepped in, and by the end of last week, more than 80% of members were trading above their averages, a stark change in less than a month.
    https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...02f-1271291994
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    Last edited by robo; 10-20-2021 at 09:33 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2460

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The VIX......

    He just called us...
    Yesterday, before the market closed, our "VIX guy" called us explaining the case for a continuation of the VIX collapse.

    Arguments are basically that everything is awesome and no risks can affect this market as strong seasonality is upon us.

    We agree on the seasonality factor, but when the VIX guy calls us explaining why VIX should go even lower post this last volatility reset we get "uneasy". He continues to hold a 100% inverse track record.

    It is probably time to look at some cheap protection trades.

    https://themarketear.com/


    $VIX
    By TheNorthCast • Issue #17 • View online
    Chart discussion on the $VIX:

    https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheN...e=TheNorthCast
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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