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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2437

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDX daily: It looks good...... We shall see how it plays out. Tagging the upper BB hasn't been good for sometime now. We shall see if this is the start of a much bigger move up....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2438

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI weekly (The Total Stock Market): It looks like we might just get back above the 10 week sma this morning.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2439

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Ok, a nice gap up to start the day..... We shall see where it goes..... The Bulls will want the 50 sma back ..... What the bulls don't want to see is another lower higher.

    VTI daily: Nice! Testing the 50 sma....
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    Last edited by robo; 10-14-2021 at 09:48 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #2440

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IT swing low looking very possible today.

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  9. #2441

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    IT swing low looking very possible today.
    It Looks pretty darn good so far. I still like to use VTI for trend trading, and the buyers just took it back above the 10 week sma. One would think there is some short covering going on here... LOL..... We know a couple of GURU's that are still short. The last time VTI moved above the 10 week sma the STRer's took some profits, and I got whipsawed. We shall see how this move plays out.....

    STR = Sell the Rip
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2442

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY and VTI daily charts: Nice moves above the 50 sma on the daily charts..... Folks are covering.......
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2443

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX/VXX chart: Heading into the final hour of trading: Anyone buying some VXX if you are long stocks? A lower BB tag for VXX...... We shall see how that plays out....

    That tag is a Beer Money Trade for me......

    A small position of VXX at Vanguard. I use VXX on occasion as a hedge for my VTI positions or a straight up Beer Money trade if it tags the lower BB. It's no more then a pattern trade..... ( see pattern below) This trade has above average odds of being a winner based on the chart. LOL..... Nothing is every 100% but I like to play the odds on some short-term trades. I will be using a 2% stop or around $50.00ish at risk.....

    Account: robo
    Transaction type: Buy
    Order type: Market
    Security: BARCLAYS IPATH SER B S&P 500 VIX SHORT TRM FUTURE ETN NEW (VXX)
    Quantity: 100 share(s)
    Price:* $22.95
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2444

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXX daily: Hmmmmm......
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2445

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Late Friday protection time - VVIX ain't "buying" the latest VIXimplosion
    The equities vol reset has been rather dramatic this week opening up for rather cheap protection/hedging opportunities given the macro backdrop.

    VVIX has not participated during this last VIX reset.

    The 2/8 VIX month futures spread has collapsed to levels not seen in "forever" (chart 2). This is rather impressive and offers great term structure plays, especially for the crowd that believes we will see more volatility going forward and/or need hedges.

    Don't open the Friday Sassicaia before the VIX book is "full"...
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #2446

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Tom pointed this out in his daily comments. "Today is an options expiration Friday so the action isn't always predictable - as if it ever is. Pre-expiration week has a positive bias and that has certainly kicked in over the last two days, but the week after expiration Friday tends to have a more bearish bias." We shall see how this October plays out.....

    Please note the date of this article below.

    This article was written by Sy Harding. I had his service for a couple of years after the 2008/2009 Bear Market.

    Sy Harding profile picture. (See below)

    Sy Harding

    Market Patterns Look Normal

    Oct. 24, 2008 1:36 PM ETSPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

    As strange as it seems, in all this wild volatility, the weekly patterns are still playing out normally.

    For instance, options expirations take place on the third Friday of each month. The week before the expirations week tends to be negative. The week in which the expirations will expire on Friday tends to be positive. And the week after the expirations tends to be negative.i
    it’s almost bizarre that the patterns could overwhelm even these economic and market conditions.

    I can’t prove what causes the pattern around the monthly expirations, but for many years I have been expressing my suspicions. Those suspicions are that the huge program-trading firms use the power of their huge automated sell-programs to drive the stock market down the week before the options expirations week. They can then buy the highly leveraged options and futures that will expire the following week for pennies on the dollar. They then use the power of their huge buy-programs to drive the market back up the week of the expirations. They can then sell those about-to-expire options they bought for pennies on the dollar the previous week for huge profits. And the next week they unload the stocks they bought to drive the market up the previous week, adding to any negative activity in the week after the expirations.

    I know, I know. It couldn’t be, since market manipulation is illegal (except for the Fed when it rushes in with a big rate-cut, or a surprise weekend announcement, when it fears the market will tumble the next day).

    Nor could it be huge buy-programs in the final hour of the day that often manipulate an ugly market up to a better close. No, that’s just millions of investors suddenly deciding at the same moment that they need to be in the market.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/101...ns-look-normal

    Sy Harding passed away in April of 2015.
    https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/1...rip-sy-harding
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2447

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY Weekly chart: Week 31 looks to be the intermediate cycle low. We shall see how that plays out and if we can make new all time highs. However, The Yearly cycle low remains in play on the monthly chart.

    SPY Monthly chart: Because of the (right translated) formation of this intermediate cycle the yearly cycle decline is going to have to wait some more......

    SPY daily: Day 9 it looks like and a nice move back above the 10, 20, and 50 sma on the daily chart. There was probably lots of buy signals going out for many trading systems last week. It was a nice move last week if you were long.... We shall see how it handles the upper BB tag. The VXX data indicates some were buying protection before the close Friday.

    VXX daily:
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    Last edited by robo; 10-16-2021 at 10:04 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2448

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Fed and inflation plus a few tweets:

    Conversation
    Michael Ashton
    @inflation_guy
    Transitory is dead. There is too much liquidity. The Fed now needs to choose whether to drain liquidity (not just taper), and live with much lower asset prices, or keep pumping asset prices "for the rich," while we all ultimately lose in real purchasing power.

    https://twitter.com/inflation_guy/st...eid=5b348a9ca0


    Mikael Sarwe
    @MikaelSarwe

    ���� The Fed has been looking for broadening inflation. Well, now they have it. Median CPI jumped 0.5% m/m to 2.8% y/y. Small businesses moreover indicate that this is only the beginning... ( Chart 1)

    SentimenTrader
    @sentimentrader
    ·
    18h
    Well, a bit of a downer.

    After holding more than $46 billion net long in major equity index futures a year ago, smart money commercial hedgers are now net SHORT almost $60 billion dollars' worth.

    That's a headwind that stocks haven't faced much of in recent years.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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