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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2413

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI monthly: Remains stretched above the mean....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2414

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SERIOUS TRADERS

    If you only read one article all year about where markets are going from here- this would be the one!

    Open To All

    The Truth About 2021
    https://sevensentinels.com/the-truth...roaring-2020s/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2415

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Is VIX to zzzzz?
    We outlined our latest VIX logic on Friday (here). The previous note (here) has a lot of implications, for VIX as well.

    Given the latest move lower in VIX, as well as the move lower in the VIX 2/8 months futs spread, hedging with various VIX strategies is making sense to us here.

    Play the term structure of the VIX spread (+short end of the curve vs short the longer end in case you believe things won't continue to be calm).

    Another hedge we like is call spreads in VIX given the latest move lower VVIX.

    After all October is the VIX season...

    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2416

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY/SDS/VXX daily:
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2417

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Grinding higher to get back above the 20 sma. The Bulls need to get the 50 sma back this week. LOL..... Should I buy VXX or SSO? Maybe I will buy both.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2418

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY 2 hour: A look at the 2 hour....

    Beer Money Trade VXX @ $24.40..... The Bulls have the edge for now.....
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SP...2&a=1037364940

    VTI weekly: Moved back above the 3 week ema ( A good start) and the 10 week sma be up next. Looking for a place to go long VTI again for a weekly trade. Has been drifting lower for around 6 weeks, and trying to find a weekly cycle low. We shall see if the BTDer's come in or the STRer's are still in play.

    (BTDer's = Buy the dip) (Sell the Rip = STRer's)

    SSO - Looking good so far....
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    Last edited by robo; 10-11-2021 at 09:20 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2419

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI daily: ( The Total Stock Market) A very boring day if you are trading. I'm still focused on the weekly data, and not much happening so far today. I want to see SOME BEEF and a move above the 10 week SMA (Simple moving average) on the daily closing price! You can see on my chart the weekly 3 ema and the weekly 10 sma. The grind down continues.

    Bottom Line: More sellers then buyers in the Total Stock Market. VTI remains fairly flat for today. One would think the Bulls will step up before the close. We shall see how we close.

    Have a nice day!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2420

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    VTI daily: ( The Total Stock Market) A very boring day if you are trading. I'm still focused on the weekly data, and not much happening so far today.
    It's getting whippy out there. No bonds today and a ton of inflation data on deck this week. It could get a lot less boring in the coming days.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #2421

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    It's getting whippy out there. No bonds today and a ton of inflation data on deck this week. It could get a lot less boring in the coming days.
    LOL...... I'm waiting on a confirmed weekly buy signal for stocks, and I be trading both ways right now.... I still have a small position in SLV and GDX...... GDX and SLV both still holding its own and remains above their 10 day sma. (Simple Moving Average)

    I have NO current positions for VTI.


    Long - GDX and SLV Trading VXX today......
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #2422

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI daily: The good news is the 10 sma held.......

    The bad news is VTI remains below the 50 sma, 20, sma and the 3 ema. I WANT TO SEE SOME BEEF!

    VTI weekly: Still having trouble holding above the 3 ema on the weekly, and VTI closed below the 20 sma on the weekly today. The Bulls need to get back the 20 sma soon or we could see additional selling. We haven't seen a tag of the 50 week sma in sometime. Some traders I follow like to use the 40 week sma. I put the 40 sma and the 50 sma on one of the charts below. Keep in mind I'm using the 3 ema and 10 sma most of the time, and trade using the daily and lower. See the upper left corner of the chart and it will give you the color for the ema or sma I'm using. Remember, I'm a trend trader..... LOL..... WHERE IS DARN THE FED!

    VTI Monthly: Remains deep into this cycle..... I'm not guessing, or saying a bigger pull-back is coming, but as you can see a tag of the 20 month sma is just a normal pull-back on the monthly chart. (see the last chart)

    I remain flat VTI!
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    Last edited by robo; 10-11-2021 at 03:40 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2423

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    They sure do!

    While stocks closed above the 10 day MA last week to signal a new daily cycle ...

    ...stocks still need to close above the declining trend line for confirmation that day 31 was the DCL. Instead, stocks formed a lower swing high on Monday. Stocks are currrenrlty in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...ross-the-line/
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    Last edited by robo; 10-11-2021 at 04:00 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2424

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI weekly: I remain fixed on the weekly VTI data/chart. VTI remains below the 3 ema so I remain flat. I need to see a move ABOVE and a close above the 3 ema and 10 sma with some BEEF. As you can see that happened just a few weeks ago. That be a whipsaw for me, and we did GET THE BEEF!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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