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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2305

    Question FOMC

    I sold everything on the second bounce today for a small profit. GDX is bottoming on a daily/weekly basis. I usually over-trade bottoms and get left behind after a couple successful scalps.

    charts.jpg

    Reasonable Fed members would look at Evergrande, end of unemployment boosts, evictions, looming government shutdown plus vax firings and opt for a dovish tone tomorrow. But are the Fed members who traded off of inside information reasonable people?

    Reasonable people wouldn't trade on inside info even if the rules allowed it given the bad optics. I suspect that they are pissed off sociopaths who will want to show us who is boss by talking hawkish and letting the markets drop until we beg them to save us. They would get a triple bonus of getting their insider trading gaffe off the news, bolstering their power and buying back stocks at a lower price.

    So what am I going to do tomorrow. The markets don't think rates will increase until June. If they hint at before June then cash is the right choice. If they are dovish then I can buy back GDX and SILJ after I speed-read the announcement.

    june.PNG
    Last edited by redbrian; 09-21-2021 at 10:43 PM.

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  3. #2306

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily cycle data: Waiting on Fed speak.... Will there be any talk about tapering? We shall see!

    ***Update*** on my pair trade: Sold GDX and added SDS....

    Long: SLV and SDS going into Fed Speak. Small position of SDS... Both are still ST trades, but SLV is looking better everyday for a MT position. However, we shall see what Fed speak does to the market!
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    Last edited by robo; 09-22-2021 at 09:48 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2307

    Exclamation FOMC

    Two significant changes.

    "Inflation is elevated."
    "If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted."

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y20210922a.htm

    Rate hikes odds show a tiny chance for November (zero chance yesterday until June). Bearish?

    bearish.PNG

    Guess we wait for the speech in 30 minutes.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm
    Last edited by redbrian; 09-22-2021 at 02:26 PM.

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  7. #2308

    Post Barrick

    The 3-year cycle in Barrick Gold (GOLD) seems to set critical turning points every third September. With prices steadily declining for the past 12-months, the odds support a potential bottom brewing in the following days. Perhaps Wednesday’s Fed decision will force a low (possible spike low). From a technical target: closing below $18.00 would be harmful and support a drop back towards the rising 6-year trendline, currently crossing through $16.00.

    Longer-term, our work supports a new bull market in precious metals lasting throughout the 2020s. A breakout above the $30.00 level in Barrick Gold would endorse this view and support the next leg higher in precious metals.

    https://goldpredict.com/archives/31643

    barrick.jpg

    gold.png

    Last edited by redbrian; 09-22-2021 at 03:20 PM.

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  9. #2309

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    Default Re: Barrick

    LOL.....

    Repeat after me: "don't buy protection when you have to, buy it when you can"
    One of the more painful charts this week. First the explosion and the crowd chasing extremely rich protection, and then the implosion of VIX, from 28.66 to 20.87 as the crowd once again has to puke protection because: "bro hedges only cost money".
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  10.  
  11. #2310

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    Default Re: Barrick

    LOL..... I can't wait to see how they handle this one.

    Debt ceiling - what if...?

    Below a few points via Washington Post worth reviewing;

    1, If US fails to hike the debt ceiling a default would be triggered

    2, A default = sovereign credit downgrade

    3, Credit downgrade = equities crushed by up to 33%, wiping out $15tn of household wealth

    4, Cost of debt would spike, economy would suffer big and US would lose up to 6mn jobs...unemployment would go from 5% to 9%

    5, Drop dead date Oct 20

    6, Everybody remembers 2011...despite the deal reached 2 days before the debt ceiling deadline it was the S&P downgrade that saw equities plunge and VIX explode

    Let's see if they manage the situation better this time around...last time was a mess...

    Full article here.
    U.S. default this fall would cost 6 million jobs, wipe out $15 trillion in wealth, study says
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...ng-recession-/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2311

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Barrick

    It will be volatile until it is settled.

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  15. #2312

    Exclamation GLD

    I just noticed a gap fill on GLD and a potential ABC down. Weekly has a long way to go indicator-wise which is odd. Maybe first daily cycle out of ICL is a retest of the low before it gets moving on the second cycle.

    gap fill.PNG

    Normal gold DCL timing band is next month.

    cycles.PNG

    UUP is overbought on daily with a strong candle and not at previous highs on weekly. Watchout for a false breakout of 25.15 which gets weekly to the right level for it to rollover.

    uup.PNG

    I am sitting on the sidelines waiting for a good entry point. Hope I get another bite of the apple.

    apple.jpg
    Last edited by redbrian; 09-23-2021 at 12:47 AM.

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  17. #2313

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Still holding a small position of SLV, but no miners. Waiting!

    SPY daily: The 50 dma be up next! A close above it would sure make the bulls happy. Since the 10 dma is moving down they might get both together. We shall see!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #2314

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Metals/Miners daily:
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2315

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY BTD: Looking good so for..... For those that bought the 50 dma they are back to even if they held their positions.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2316

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: A closer look.... A gap up and a very nice move back above the 10 dma and the 50 dma......


    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SP...5&a=1025881557


    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels

    53m
    9:15 AM, September 23, 2021

    Markets To Open Near 50% Retrace Of September Decline

    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels/s...277252/photo/1
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    Last edited by robo; 09-23-2021 at 10:15 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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