Good cycles update.
Yes, it really looks like the pattern will repeat. However, VTI remains below the 10 and 20 dma. (I currently like to trade VTI at Vanguard.) That could change soon and when it does so will I. That doesn't mean you couldn't have traded the 50 dma tag pattern trade.
Stocks Ready To Rally?
Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday and printed a bullish reversal on Thursday. The previous 2 times that stocks tested the 50 day MA, dip buyers were rewarded with a continued rally.
Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 17, which is too early for a DCL. But if stocks can close back above the 10 day MA then we will label day 17 as the half cycle low. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band signals the continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal, with the stop being a close below the 50 day MA.
For the record: I currently have NO VXX OR SHORT POSITIONS.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
GDX daiy: We shall see how it closes..... I added a few more shares...... (For now this is a ST trade)
GDX weekly: A ways to go before my next MT buy signal! Remains below the 10 wma.....
SLV daily:
SLV weekly:
Still long some GDX and SLV..... Added a few more shares.... If the major support levels fail (Blue lines on my charts below GDX and SLV) I will go flat and look to buy shares back later.
For the record: When I'm ST trading they are much smaller positions.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
$HUI weekly: HUI has just completed 17 weeks below the 10 wma, and trending down with lower highs. The Bugs probably thought the tag of the upper BB was a BO and in fact it was a sell signal. As you can see by the patterns that reducing position size after a upper BB tag is wise if you are a trader. I trade upper and lower BB tags in some sectors.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Picking up some GDX and SILJ at the close in case it turns up over the weekend. Easy swing low on Monday but I still don't like the weekly candles .
dw.jpg
[QUOTE=redbrian;661150]Picking up some GDX and SILJ at the close (just in case). Easy swing low on Monday but I still don't like the weekly candles.
I agree Brother and my GDX, SLV positions are small. I’m only ST trading until we get a confirmed ICL. The weekly trend continues its downtrend.
Correction on my HUI chart comment above: That should be 14 weeks not 17 weeks, but both are bad for those riding this move down.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
It's gonna be a long weekend for the longs (again)
Last Friday was bad, but we still traded "well" above the 50 day and the longer term trend was intact.
Fast forward to today and a similar "feeling" is playing out, but this time the BTD feels slightly less attractive...
Remember, a lot of long "pinned" risk is expiring today, so the market will move more "freely" from Monday.
https://themarketear.com/
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Consider these charts before you buy that dip...
By now everybody knows you should buy SPX at the 50 day moving average, or sometimes slightly below it. Imagine the "confusion" should we start trading below it...
Seasonality is strong, and it has just started. We are supposed to roll over...
Pundits all explain the high skew and the fact everybody is hedged, but as BofA showed earlier this week, the crowd is running very low hedges at the moment.
https://themarketear.com/
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
I got swing low marking/counting working.
swings.png
Here is the price history for GDX. Significant swing lows were not as easy to identify as I thought. Feel free to post your version of the charts with swing lows marked while I work on cycle stats and seasonality (from the beginning of a cycle instead of the beginning of a year).
1.png
2.png
Last edited by redbrian; 09-18-2021 at 12:24 AM.
Hengda (an Evergrande subsidiary) applied to suspend trade of its onshore corporate bonds for one day, it said. On the resumption of trade on Sept. 17, its Shanghai and Shenzhen exchange-traded bonds will only be traded through negotiated transactions.
https://www.reuters.com/business/china-evergrande-applies-bond-trading-suspension-after-downgrade-2021-09-16/
Their bonds are down 70%.
bonds.jpg
Their stock recovered a little bit.
evergrande.png
Empty cities with no cars. Will China bail out an empty company?
Ghost City.jpg
US Markets (and my mining stocks) may depend on it.
P.S. The GDX charts below were too large for my monitor but if you right-click them and choose Save Image As you will get the entire thing. I will have to make them a little smaller in the future.
Last edited by redbrian; 09-18-2021 at 12:29 AM.
VTI daily: ( Last chart) This move down to the 50 dma has been a tad different this time. Waiting for a move back above the 10 dma. The 10 dma has turned down and crossing the 20 dma. Not what a trend trader wants to see.
I currently have no positions in VTI.
GDX daily: Still trading under the 10 dma, and NO weekly BUY SIGNAL! Long some GDX and SLV for a ST trade. I wait for the weekly buy signal to buy back my 10% position.
GDX weekly: Getting closer.....
GDX weekly: I still have NO MT positions only ST trading positions. GDX moved up for two weeks after the last lower BB tag. I made a few bucks off that trade. However, it could NOT get back above the 10 wma, and is testing the $30.00ish dollar support level. Buyers have been coming in around that area. One would think another huge smash down for gold is coming... We shall see.
SLV daily:
SLV weekly: ST trading a small position after the lower BB crash. We shall see if the $20.00ish are holds. That will depend on what gold does next.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
GLD daily: A lower BB crash, and move up from the low, but still no ST bounce to move back inside the lower BB bands. That is part of my ST GDX trade. I like to trade the BB tags. It's a data point for ST trading.
GLD weekly: The last lower BB tag for GLD it moved up 4 weeks, but now moved down 2 weeks. I made some nice money ST trading EQX after that tag. Waiting to read over what the GURU's and cycle dudes have to say this weekend. I will say there are a few good ones out there.
A few I still read but make trades based on "MY" trading system.
Gold-Futures Taper Tantrum
Adam Hamilton
Archives
Sep 17, 2021
Gold continues to struggle to make headway, bogged down by skittish gold-futures speculators. They are loath to buy in quantity, because they fear serious downside from expected Fed tightening. For that same reason they are quick to flee as a herd, unleashing periodic bouts of heavy selling hammering gold. That feeds bearish psychology, ramping worries about the immediate threat of another gold-futures taper tantrum.
Sep 17, Gold-Futures Taper Tantrum Adam Hamilton 321gold ...inc ...s
(Chart 3)
Gold Falls But Key Juniors Rise
Morris Hubbartt
Sep 17, 2021 Gold Falls But Key Juniors Rise Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s
Mostly Bearish articles on this site:
https://www.gold-eagle.com/
Bottom Line: The trend remains down!
(Chart 4)
EQX daily: Currently NO position
(Chart 5) NUGT Morris chart ( A possible double bottom) We shall see how next week plays out.
Sep 17, 2021 Gold Falls But Key Juniors Rise Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s
Bottom line for the metal miners: Nothing has been confirmed for the start of an uptrend.
Last edited by robo; 09-18-2021 at 09:30 AM.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
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