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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2245

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Day 7 since the move down started. Getting closer the the 50 dma, and I agree we "SHOULD BOUNCE" very soon. Selling all my SDS today and waiting to see how this plays out. Will it be a DCL and then a (LT) failed daily cycle or are we headed to a weekly cycle low.


    (Second Chart)
    SPY weekly: You have to admit it sure has been a nice run!
    Bottom Line: Still NO SELL signal on the weekly chart based on the system I use. However, this late in the cycle "IF" you are still long it should be a much smaller position in my opinion. Of course at almost 70 years old, my Risk Management rules are probably much different then younger folks.


    Robert Burgess
    @BobOnMarkets
    1h
    BREAKING: The Institute of International Finance says $4.8 TRILLION was added to the global mountain of debt in the second quarter, bringing the total to a record high $296 TRILLION

    (3rd chart)
    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    This is all fundamentals ...
    What I do is technicals....

    This Chart tells a story... a bearish story.
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    Last edited by robo; 09-14-2021 at 12:30 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2246

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL......

    I remember it well!

    SPY 2 hour flash crash chart: Amazing.....

    Daily flash crash: Closed well off the lows.... In the next 2 months it retested the lows twice.....

    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics

    20m
    you know what time of day it is?

    it's the time of day of the flash crash 5/6/2010
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I
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    Last edited by robo; 09-14-2021 at 02:11 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  4.  
  5. #2247

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL..... We shall see! The 50 dma is up next "IF" we get there...... As usual the SPX futures are up.....

    (Chart 1) SPX daily cycle data:

    Change Of Character

    The advancing phase of the intermediate cycle is characterized by RSI 05 embedding in overbought and delivering quick bullish reversals once oversold. Stocks on Tuesday are beginning to show a change of character.

    Instead of a quick bullish reversal, RSI 05 once again became oversold and is beginning to embed there. The previous 2 times that stocks tested the 50 day MA, dip buyers were rewarded with a continued rally. Stocks are still in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. However, a close below the 50 day MA would be another change in character that would signal the daily and intermediate cycle decline.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...f-character-2/

    (Chart 2)

    SPX - what if this dip is not bouncing?

    Spoos is still down less than 2% from the ATH close, but VIX refuses easing, trading just shy of 20 as of writing.


    Looking at the micro picture, Spoos hasn't closed below the 21 day moving three days in a row since the mid May correction.

    4450 is a huge level to watch. A close below and things could become "fluid" to the downside.

    In case you missed it, we believe the Pavlovian BTD mentality is one of the bigger market risks going (here).
    https://themarketear.com/
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    Last edited by robo; 09-14-2021 at 08:53 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2248

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Fear Meter: It only took 7 down days to generate this much fear... The next ICL we will probably hit the teens and that will cause extra selling. These new traders using APP's on their phone have never seen a Bear Market and like to use leverage. Oh Boy!

    SPY daily: Remains in a daily downtrend.

    (Chart 2)

    It's all about fear
    Forget greed. After all we are just 2% below all time high.

    This has to be the most fearful bull...
    https://themarketear.com/
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    Last edited by robo; 09-14-2021 at 09:07 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  8.  
  9. #2249

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL.... The Fed needs to do something about this!

    The 4th Longest Momentum Streak Since 1928 Just Ended
    It was quite a run, but the dip in stocks last week did a bit of damage.

    We've seen from multiple perspectives just how much of an outlier 2021 has been in terms of sentiment, breadth, and momentum. At various points since January, momentum ebbed, or negative breadth divergences triggered, then buyers came in immediately.

    Yet, at no time did fewer than 75% of S&P stocks close below their long-term averages until the end of last week. For the first time in 10 months, fewer than 3 out of every 4 stocks in the S&P 500 closed above their 200-day moving averages.

    That ends the 4th-longest streak since at least 1928.

    In over 90 years of history, there have only been 5 other streaks of at least 200 consecutive days. Like we see with many momentum types of data, forward returns were good, even after the streaks ended. While it did precede a big dip in 1950, the others saw minimal losses or gains over the following months.
    https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...4e4-1271291994
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2250

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Evergrande: Should we be watching this?



    EVERGRANDE - there I said it, nobody is talking about it... Bigger than Lehman Bros.

    And it ain't going away.


    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    40m
    https://gnews.org/1531121/
    Quote Tweet
    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    · 41m
    @Jkylebass, @RaoulGMI, @chigrl You may not have read these predictions from Miles Guo, shocking. Maybe you already know...

    "With millions of people implicated in Evergrande and millions of families behind it, Evergrande will be the biggest economic collapse in history."

    https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
    Macro Matters
    Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan warn of Evergrande's debt woes spillover risks
    LONDON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Evergrande Group's (3333.HK) debt crisis could pose spillover risks to the broader Chinese property sector, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Wednesday.

    The developer, which has liabilities of nearly two trillion yuan ($305 billion), is trying to raise funds to pay lenders and suppliers as it teeters between a managed collapse and the more distant prospect of a bailout by Beijing. read more

    "We believe that further disruptions to the company's property development operations can be very negative for sentiment amongst domestic property buyers and investors, and potentially spill over to the broader property sector," Goldman Sachs' Kenneth Ho and Chakki Ting wrote in the note.


    https://www.reuters.com/business/eve...an-2021-09-15/
    Last edited by robo; 09-15-2021 at 08:55 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  13. #2251

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Trying to get back above the 20 dma..... We shall if the Bulls got this.... Day 6 below the 10 dma and a "POSSIBLE" DCL be very close.... Unless we are headed to a weekly cycle low/ICL! Flat while this plays out. ST trading a few positions....

    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    32m
    We are closer than ever

    to one of these day trade shorts rolling into the next BEAR market
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    Last edited by robo; 09-15-2021 at 01:19 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2252

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Very close to putting in a swing low. Will have to wait until the close to see where they put it.

  16.  
  17. #2253

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    Evergrande: Should we be watching this?

    EVERGRANDE - there I said it, nobody is talking about it... Bigger than Lehman Bros.

    And it ain't going away.
    I wonder how many ghost cities they hold on their books? Remember these stories from 2008? They never stopped building. (FF to 4:20 in video)


  18.  
  19. #2254

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Very close to putting in a swing low. Will have to wait until the close to see where they put it.
    I be watching for clues so I can go back to trading SSO....
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2255

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM and VTI daily charts: IWM back above the 50 dma, but still not enough buyers to get it back above the 20 and 10 dma. We shall see how it closes. Most are expecting a DCL here and then a move back to (ATH) new highs. We shall see..... Possible for VTI and SPY, but IWM remains weak. VTI still creeping higher..... A move above the 20 dma would be a win for the bulls today. VTI did come very close to the 50 dma and BT it today.... ( So Far Bullish this late in the daily cycle)

    The FED chart: Time to buy stocks?

    Sven Henrich
    @NorthmanTrader

    1h
    One day he'll stop laughing.
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    Last edited by robo; 09-15-2021 at 01:39 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2256

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL.... Just BTD! Investors have piled more money into the stock market during the past 8-1/2 months than during the previous 20 years added together:

    The total net inflow into equity funds in 2021, with the year less than 3/4 complete, has exceeded the entire previous twenty years combined and reached its most intense pace in seven months.


    People have attributed the past year's historic surge for U.S. large-cap indices to the Fed, record-low commissions, a huge media blitz, Joe Biden, and just about any other reason you can invent. While those were contributing inducements, there is only one reason for U.S. stocks reaching by far their highest-ever overall levels relative to fair value, and it's investors piling more into the market during the past 8-1/2 months than during the previous 20 years added together:

    Kaplan

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ed-11631273525

    (Chart 2)

    The one chart to rule them all
    The great SPX buy the dip chart continues delivering the easiest trading set up.

    Bullish trend perfection as the cork in water market can't get enough of upside.

    It works until it doesn't...
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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