Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

It seems that way almost everyday: Markets Higher on Negative NYSE and NASDAQ Breadth. Let us not forget about the Hindenburg Omens..... One of these days we will get another market crash, but for now the trend remains up! What happened to the jaws of death pattern? A huge breakout....

IWM monthly: Taking another shot at a ATH again..... So far another lower high..... Watching this one! So far 6 months of sideways action.

Here Comes the Next Hindenburg Omen, Right on Schedule. Read This Weekend's August 20th Newsletter for the Details.


Patterns tell us that A Stock Market CRASH will start in the next 6 Months, possibly much sooner. Read our U.S. Weekend Market Newsletter, issue no. 4186, for the reasons we believe the Market is communicating this dire warning, how bad it is going to be, and when it will arrive.

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels


SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

Markets Higher on Negative NYSE and NASDAQ Breadth
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

VTI daily and Weekly: As a trend trader how can you not like this run..... ( VTI is the Total Stock Market)

Bottom Line: The trend remains up!

Hard Stop
Posted on August 30, 2021

The declines in June, July and now August have not satisfied the usual criteria for a DCL. We are seeing 4 – 5 day declines that are being bought buy “dip buyers”, which is obscuring our timing bands.

At 26 weeks, stocks are due for an intermediate cycle decline. Once again, stocks are becoming stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks may consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. But a break below the previous daily cycle high of 4480.26 can be used as a hard stop to to avoid a potential ICL decline.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...smoneystudies/

(Still) too many bears around
Last weeks' AAII bear sentiment was no good reading for the bears. We need bears to go back to hibernation before anything meaningful can occur to the downside.
https://themarketear.com/

It looks that way....

Should we get ready for upside pain part 2?
If we are to follow the SPX 1995 vs now seasonality things could get even more "painful" to the upside...

It looks like upside crashing is the new risk investors need to start pricing.
https://themarketear.com/

An amazing run.....

Carter Braxton Worth
@CarterBWorth
Aug 27
For the month of August we've made 10 new intraday, all-time highs in the $SPX... this hasn't happened in the month of August since 1987. The record number of intraday, all-time highs in the month of August is 11... which happened in 1929.

The Technical View Of The S&P 500
This is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/445...-could-be-deep

SPY daily: Getting closer to the completion of this daily cycle. Not normal to have 5 daily cycles before we get an ICL, but nothing is normal about this stock market. Will we get a tag of the 50 dma and then a continuation of the melt-up during the next daily cycle low (DCL). That would make it 6 if that happens.

SPY weekly: Waiting on the next ICL..... LOL..... if we every get one.....

IWM weekly: Still keeping my eye on this sector. Having some trouble after tagging the upper BB. So that pattern remains in play.... It could be different this time because we did get a tag of the 200 dma and buyers came in.

Taking a look at a few monthly charts:

VTI monthly: The Total Stock market ( A mix of the C and S funds....)
SPY monthly: The C Fund
IWM monthly: Traders
QQQ monthly Traders
VXF monthly: The S fund and it has basically gone sideways since printing the 188.00 marker several months ago.

My VIX daily chart below. Just filling the gap? We shall see.....

VXX/SPY 2 hour chart:

VIX - working on that cheap(er) protection theme
VIX is back below 16 again, currently trading at 15.78. Market is realizing relatively low volatility as it trends higher. Our take on VIX and hedging/protection stays intact;

"...current equity move higher will hopefully get equity vol sellers to enter the game and start puking vol...this is setting up for some great long vol/VIX trades soon...but we are not there yet."

Note the move lower in the VIX term structure. People are once again "forced" into selling the short end of the curve as theta checks burn quickly...

Chart showing the move lower today compared to yesterday.

It looks like this historical data has caught the attention of a few other folks. They too are now looking over this data. The yearly cycle remains stretched, but the trend remains up!

Constant new all time highs - time to worry?
August proved to be a great month for new all time highs.

Last time we had similar all time high counts was in 1929 and 1987. On both occasions market decided crashing in October.

Current melt up is playing out well and vols are in implosion mode again.

Ideally protection becomes dirt cheap and we can start tilting the book into some serious long premium plays/hedges/downside speculation. After all October tends to be volatile...