Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

GDX daily: Another move down this morning, and we are getting close to BTing the March low marker of $30.64..... We shall see if it holds up today..... LOL.... That doesn't mean it will tomorrow... Charts can give you clues and help you see patterns, but NO ONE knows for sure what will happen. Good calls and good guesses are based on your tools and odds that your trade COULD be a winner.

EQX daily: Tagging the $6.00ish are again.

Bottom Line: GDX, GDXJ and EQX all remain in a downtrend. I have NO BUY signal yet based on the tools I use.

SPY daily closeup: A tag of the lower BB after moving below the 10 and 20 dma. A 1/2 cycle low or something bigger? You can guess as many time as you want. We shall see if we are heading to the 50 dma. The pattern has been to get a nice bounce after the tag. We shall see if I need to sell SDS soon.

The SPY is now in a ST downtrend..... That's a cash or SDS position for me. You CAN NOT short at Vanguard, but I have other accounts for that trading.

I remain long SDS for a trade only.

LONG - EQX, GDXJ, and SDS.....

Good Trading!

SPY weekly: Whats not to like. The SPY hasn't even touched the 10 wma yet.
SPY daily: Having some trouble getting back above the 20 dma...... We shall see how it closes....
GDXJ daily: The 2020 smash down chart: Did you BTD early? LOL.... I did and it wasn't fun!

Bottom Line: The trend remains up for SPY on the weekly, but remains on a sell on the daily. I trade using the daily in case you don't understand how I can have to signals. There is ST trading and there is MT trading. The weekly is for MT trading and the daily is for ST trading using my trading system.

Positions: SDS, GDXJ, and EQX. GDXJ and EQX are both counter-trend positions as I'm scaling in for a MT position. I'm trying to catch the falling knife. You should NOT be buying shares for an index that is trending down. Well, your NOT suppose to because it could just keep going much lower. Did you BTD during the 2020 sell-off? If you bought early it got ugly. A chart of that time frame below for GDXJ. You got your money back if you BTD early, but most get scared and just sell and then they are afraid to get back in. Maybe that is not you, but many are in that group.

Ok, they be buying the SPY as we head into the close.... You buy going into Friday for Easy Money Monday. We also have the free lunch during OPtx week... We shall see how it all plays out. If it doesn't close back above those ma's I will hold my SDS position. The weekly (MT positions) remains on a hold long positions.

SPY daily: Still under the 10 and 20 dma, but with 30 minutes to go anything can happen.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SP...4&a=1012298215

The intermediate cycle in gold (chart below) has formed turning points roughly every 128-calendar days (4.2-months). That cycle just turned again, triggering an intermediate low on August 9, 2021. Gold must now stay above that low to prevent a breakdown to the $1500 to $1550 area.

https://goldpredict.com/archives/31237

cycle.jpg

Our Gold Cycle Indicator hit ZERO on Tuesday (8/10/2021), triggering a Portfolio Buy Signal. Currently, the GCI is sitting at 18.

https://goldpredict.com/archives/31166

indicator.PNG

Stocks/M3 could go even higher. Gold/M3 could go even lower. Place your bets.

m3.jpg

I still think the Fed is a paper tiger that will growl about tightening until the election (or at least until Powell is nominated for another term) but will always find a reason to delay it.

tiger.jpg

Jay Powell is no Paul Volcker.

real tiger.jpg

P.S. You know the big players are eyeing $1670. Breaking that would frighten everyone out of gold so they can close their shorts and go the other way.

LOL..... Just BTD!


Buy The Dip for the Free lunch tomorrow, and then we have Easy Money Monday.

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Thursday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, following the day 40 peak. Thursday was day 43, placing stocks in their timing and for a DCL. Thursday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 4418.61 will form a swing low. Then a close back above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...smoneystudies/

In other new/tweets....
One of these days....Hmmmmmm


thomas
@VolumeDynamics

Welp, one of these days, maybe even sooner than we think... $DJIA going to be down 1000 points...

https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics

LOL..... Yes Sir - Never forget the buybacks is right - as insiders continue to sell their shares.

Never forget the buybacks...
Buyback authorizations have surged YTD. Several large-caps have announced new programs (AAPL $90bn, GOOGL $50bn. The bid will be there (almost) every day....

Jesse Felder
@jessefelder

8h
Stock issuance highest ever, as firms and Wall Street know when it’s time to sell to eager buyers https://gmo.com/americas/research-li...tock-issuance/ via GMO

GDXJ

Gold & The Winds Of War

August 17, 2021 Gold & The Winds Of War Stewart Thomson 321gold ...inc ...s

EQX daily:

Equinox Gold Insider Trading Activity
Trend: ▲ Corporate Insiders Bought Shares Worth $1.7M in the Last 3 Months.

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/eqx/insider-trading

Bearish outlook for gold given the weakness in miners. Rather complicated so I'll have to read it again when I am not tired.

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/gold-trading/ignorance-always-backfires-pay-attention-to-gold-miners/

Juniors, as well as senior mining stocks, are very weak compared to gold, which means that they are not reacting to gold’s gains but multiplying gold’s declines instead. This doesn’t just mean that the profits on our short positions in juniors are increasing almost constantly – it also means that the entire precious metals sector is about to fall much further. This kind of underperformance preceded the 2013 slide, and we haven’t seen it – to this extent – in years. This is huge.

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As I described in my previous gold trading analyses, what we are seeing now in gold is very similar to what we saw in 2012-2013, and the above-mentioned super-weak performance of gold stocks confirms it.

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Here is a monthly gold chart for reference. Yes, it could happen but what is the trigger?

monthly.jpg

Ah, I thought of something. Gold is in a downward channel (lower highs and lower lows) which everyone is watching. If it breaks 1670 then many would sell because the 200 DMA is sloping down and the channel target/support is $100 lower. Fall is usually when liquidity crises show up and the Reverse Repo is hovering around one trillion with some analysts expecting it to reach two trillion. Maybe somebody goes bankrupt and we get a big flush this Fall (or the Fed really does taper).

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