Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Originally Posted by robo

EQX daily: Are the miners trying to bottom? We shall see.....

Insiders at Matador buying again.

I need to start monitoring that again. I was waiting because I think most stocks will sell off during the next 10% pullback. Well, that is a guess based on the data I use. I think we have a big scare coming in the next 60 days, but the SPY continues to move higher.

I’m going to look things over this weekend, but the Easy Money Monday pattern is up next. Tracking a few guys that are Big Time Short using Triple leverage. Lol..... I currently have a few small short positions that are down..... I have stops in place, but they haven’t been tagged yet.

We shall see how next week plays out as we get deeper into this daily cycle.

Have a nice weekend and take care!

USD and SPX daily cycle: It's the next move for the dollar that I think is the most important.....




The 8/07/21 Weekend Report Preview
by likesmoneystudies
The Dollar


A bullish reversal formed on day 45 to place the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks:

Stocks have been consolidating above the day 17 high until Friday.
Stocks broke bullish out of consolidation on Friday. Friday was day 34, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle decline. At this point, any breakout will likely be given right back as stocks seek out their daily cycle low.

However, there is the potential for stocks to begin a melt-up phase. Therefore stops could be raised to 4429.97. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/

It doesn't matter until it does, and then it's usually hard to control.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal...eid=5b348a9ca0

VTI monthly: VTI is the total market at Vanguard..... Buy/Hold and just BTD have done very well since the 2020 low.


Rydex bulls have always heavily outnumbered bears at market highs, but the bulls became extremely jazzed about stocks on January 31, 2018, when the ratio lurched to a then-record 27.3, meaning that Rydex traders had 27.3 times as much money invested in bullish funds as bearish funds.

That week, the S&P [500 Index] and NDX [similar to QQQ] both started a plunge of 12% in a span of just ten days.
Fast forward to February 19, 2020, as the S&P 500 hit a new intraday high, the Rydex ratio pushed to 29.7, also a new record at the time.
The S&P then crashed 35% in 23 days.

Yesterday [August 5, 2021], the ratio hit a new record of 42.8, so Rydex investors are betting 42.8 times as much money on a continued rise in stocks as they are on a decline.
--Steven Hochberg and Peter Kendall, "Elliott Wave Financial Forecast", ElliottWave.com, August 6, 2021.

Not that investors really care!

The number of U.S. stocks with market capitalizations surpassing 20 times sales is usually tiny but had skyrocketed in 1999-2000 and again in 2021.


Absurdly-overpriced U.S. stocks are usually rare except for the euphoric twin peaks of 1999-2000 and today:

Divergences don't matter until they matter.


Imagine jumping off a 100-story skyscraper. When you're down to the tenth floor you tell yourself, "I'm doing fine so far with only 10% of the trip remaining. I'll be okay." That's pretty much what investors are doing when they ignore all-time record insider selling, greater net inflows into equity funds since November 2020 than during the previous 20 years combined, exactly the same divergences for small-cap shares, gold mining, energy, and emerging-market securities that we had experienced in 2007 and roughly in the same order, and in recent weeks even high-yield U.S. corporate "junk" bond yields climbing moderately from all-time record low levels which have been below the inflation rate for the first time in U.S. history. Exactly when the reckoning happens and how, and the extent of the ultimate depths, will of course remain unknowable in advance. Eventually all of today's extremes will be followed by nearly opposite extremes and probably within three years or less.
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

OPEX is coming our way again: Still a couple of weeks to go, but next week we might start seeing some action.

https://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar
thomas

@VolumeDynamics

1h
Everybody ALL BULLED UP for next Friday's OPEX... might want to have a look at what happened in June and July Opex

SPY NFP tracking: Blue lines...... We shall see how next week plays out.....

Bottom Line: The trend remains up for the SPY.

VXF daily = The S Fund: Still in a sideways trading range..... Not what you what to see in a Bull Market. It only matters if you are trading only small caps. Best to always have a mix.

Handling Stock Market Hardballs

As a market timer, the one thing we must always remember is that the markets can, and most definitely will, throw every possible hardball, curve ball, fast ball, knuckle ball, etc. at us.
Market Timing is Unique

Market timers face psychological battles that very few people ever face in their entire lives. There are so many differences between the emotions experienced in trading the financial markets, and what we experience in our lives, that it can easily interfere with our ability to trade.

If we can identify those emotions we can take steps to protect ourselves from them, stop them from influencing us, and become winning (profitable) market timers and traders.

For example, in the workplace, working hard and expecting to be justly rewarded for it are part of the American dream. Who would argue with the logic?

But in the stock market, work as hard as you can and the markets will still reverse on you and give you losses. Make the perfect trade and it can still go bad.

This is because timing the markets is not about our work ethic. It is not about genius or luck. It is about numbers and probability.

Numbers and Probability

Toss a coin 50 times and you can expect 25 times it will land heads up, and 25 times it will land tails up. But there is no rule that says the first 7 tosses will not all come up tails.

Once we realize that over time the numbers "always" add up in our favor, we can more easily endure the short term swings. The market "hardballs."

Being prepared for all that the market can throw at us, helps us to stick with our trading strategy.

Once you face the fact that market timing isn't easy money, or that you won't become rich overnight, you will be able to prepare yourselves mentally for the long haul.

If you expect that at times there will be losing trades, you won't be disappointed when they happen. You will have your eyes set on the big picture, which puts the odds in your favor over time.
https://www.fibtimer.com/subscribers...commentary.asp

GLD daily: A HUGE gap down Friday, and now it's oversold. What is GLD trying to tell us? Many have an opinion about this.

3 2 1 g o l d ... Welcome!



Gold update: As predicted gold is now dropping into the cycle low
https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/