Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

IWM daily: A move back down to the lower BB? Very possible..... IWM moved under the 20 dma fairly quick this morning ( a sell signal for some). The upper/lower BB tag pattern has been a good one to trade and we are now back under the Feb high..... No gains for buy and hold, and not very good for trend trading as we have had to many whipsaws trading this index the last four months. However, the weekly looks good....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...37&a=970039333

IWM weekly: Remains above the 10 and 20 wma. I use the daily closing price for trend trading. We shall see how it closes and if buyers come in. The dollar is putting huge pressure on stocks right now. Note the BB squeeze that has been taking place. Will the first big move be a fake-out? That is something we will just have to wait and see. Unless you have a magic 8 ball to ask use some Risk Management here and stay nimble. I agree that BTFD has been a winner, but one should respect the current cycle and where we are in it. That is why I use cycles as a tool for risk management.

Yearly cycle data: If you are an investor and using the monthly cycle data, we haven't even gotten close to a sell signal. However, this deep into the cycle one should have reduced some and taking some profits. We are stretched above the 50 mma which is the mean to watch. The rubber band can only stretch so far and so long before it pulls back some.

I'm tracking the weekly: Next chart....

History suggests there could be at least one more day of trading UNDER the LOWER BB..
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Tim Ord

With an hour to go to close: $GDX volume has already reached exhaustion levels. The previous four going back to last August all marked reversals and we expect this one to do the same. Friday's seems to mark most highs and lows. https://pic.twitter.com/QtSLkVfcmX
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics

GDXJ weekly: A lower BB tag or maybe more? The dollar is in play here and one would think a ST bounce might happen soon.

This Indicator Predicts Stocks Will Lose 36% Through 2023
Consumers are flush, and they've got a whole lot riding on markets.

The latest Federal Reserve data on household assets, just released with a delay for Q1, shows that once again, equities have pushed to a record relative to all household financial assets. At 36.5% of all assets, mutual funds and equities account for a greater share than any point since at least 1952.

The chart below shows this measure against the S&P 500's return over the next decade. There has been a clear negative correlation, meaning that as households allocate more of their assets to stocks, future returns on those stocks decrease.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...-through-2023/

SPX daily: BTFD after tagging the 50 dma has been a winner this year. We shall see next week if that pattern continues....

GDXJ and the $USD: It's pretty clear how this works. One would think a ST bounce for GDXJ next week and a rest for the dollar move could happen soon. But unless you have a magic 8 ball I would stay nimble for now. The week after OPTX usually causes some additional selling pressure. I have a sell on GDXJ so other then ST trading with small positions I will just watch to take a MT position again. Tom's chart of historical data for June doesn't look good for next week. However, I trade the trade and I'm currently in cash waiting for the next buy signal. This could just be a 1/2 cycle low for stocks..... We shall see in the days ahead. GDXJ and the SPX pattern are linked closer then some think. See my chart below. The dollar is a big player right now in the ST data.

GDXJ and SPY weekly data: I'm watching the weekly and monthly data right now, and not doing to much trading. Looking for the next extreme to trade.

VTI/SPY monthly data: Still very stretched above the mean, and late in the yearly cycle. I'm not making a prediction here just pointing out the data.

Bottom Line: Remains in a uptrend if you are investing using the monthly data.

Many gold bulls were calling for a big breakout this week. I think most got blindsided, including "the Ord Oracle".

Though I exited my commodity stock trades with gains, I was stopped out this week so that trade is completely over with. Gap downs are not a good sign. My mind tells me some commodities will push higher, but I don't base trades on hope and nobody ever went broke taking a profit.

That 50 DMA has been a good buy point for months even when there were momentum divergences.