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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1585

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Where are we now?

    SevenSentinels Retweeted
    Dale Pinkert
    @ForexStopHunter

    21h
    Delusional New Paradigm

    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1586

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    mmk,

    I'm not an investor, but if I was I would use the weekly 10 wma. I trade using the daily, and that might be for you too if you have the time. I think Tom has a really good service as others here do for investing with limited moves. As for investing in a Bear Market.... cash is King!

    Some thoughts on trend trading.....
    https://www.fibtimer.com/about/prior_commentaries.asp

    I'm not recommending Fibtimer's service, but his reports give you an idea of how trend traders trade. I also use cycles and look for extremes and cycle lows to trade.

    The bottom line for me is I trade what is happening and not what I think will happen. I don't try and pick tops or bottoms. I'm using the 5, 10, 20, and 50 dma for MT trading. The 20 dma/50 dma would be more for an investor using TSP. I use the 5, and 10 dma and cycle data for ST trading. Read Fib's reports, and back test using my daily chart below and see where you would have bought and sold. Keep in mind trend trading doesn't work very well in a Bear Market. I have unlimited moves in my Vanguard account so I can move in and out of indexes as often as I want during the trading day based on my sell and buy signals. AND YES..... I get whipsawed sometimes, but I can sell quickly if I have to. That is not so easy using TSP. One should have a Roth IRA at Vanguard using a brokerage account in my opinion, and not just TSP. That is one of the best pieces of advice I gave myself over the years. Once the Bear starts and investor BTFD to soon things will change. At some point the Fed will no longer be able to keep the market moving higher. History proves that.....

    Like I said, in a Bear Market cash is king as you wait for the next extreme to trade.

    Bottom Line: There is NO SUCH thing as a perfect system, but trend trading works well for me in the current market. That will change once the next bear starts. Like I said, Tom as a good system as do others here for investing in TSP. The more important thing most have to learn is Risk Management. Wait to buy or add during extremes and most have a very hard time doing that.

    A small comment from Kaplan.

    We are likely to get compelling bargains later in 2021 which could gain substantially within one year.

    May 14, 2021: Wait patiently for bargains.

    Most investors are far too heavily invested early in a bear market, thereby not only causing them to lose money into frequent severe pullbacks but also to have insufficient cash to capitalize upon worthwhile bargains when they are created. I expect numerous compelling purchase opportunities before the end of the year with many of them occurring this summer. Raise cash now to be able to take full advantage of chances to buy shares which in some cases could double or more within about one year or less. If you made this mistake during the first quarter of 2020 then be better prepared this year.

    Kaplan
    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/


    I hope this will give you some ideas to think over for investing using a MT trading system. I'm a trader NOT AN INVESTOR Brother!
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    Last edited by robo; 05-17-2021 at 09:26 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1587

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by mmk119 View Post
    what is the general investment strategy in a bear market for TSP investing?
    I know - without giving investment advice right? just trying to educate myself on the picture of how that would work. is it as simple as waiting on the sidelines till the market would turn back from bear to bull. or is there a more active approach?
    Now that bear markets last only a couple of weeks (March 2020), there's not much to do.

    But in a normal bear market, rallies can be explosive, but they eventually fail and rollover. Those rallies do tend to come from much lower than you'd expect them to, meaning the declines can really hurt. So in general, rather than buying the dips, a market timer would sell the rallies.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #1588

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: Will this tagging of the 50 dma be another time to BTFD? The past pattern indicates it's an excellent time to buy..... We shall see how this move plays out.... Waiting on the next buy signal and doing some Beer money trades using SDS and VXX.....

    Buyers coming in already....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...13&a=947889939
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #1589

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Got Bitcoin?

    SentimenTrader
    @sentimentrader
    ·
    49m
    In the past 7 sessions, stocks have suffered 3 of the largest bouts of concentrated selling pressure in history.

    May 11: Largest all-time
    Today: 5th-largest
    May 12: 19th-largest
    https://twitter.com/sentimentrader
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #1590

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    How many bitcoin millionaires are no longer millionaires? It's always been a beer trade for me brother. If I win in a few years I'll be able to upgrade to a case of Sam Adams Cherry Wheat. If not, I'm out a case of Keystone Light.

    I almost replied to Jason's tweet asking for more context. He says, "largest concentrated selling pressure in history" yet the chart only goes back 16 months.

    I still think Bill Hwang was running up ARKK and all the garbage inside that ETF. It is a bit suspicious how ARKK has underperformed since the attempted cornering of VIAC, TEN, DISCA and a few Chinese ADR's and lends credence to the cloaked levels of leverage in markets today.

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  13. #1591

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I’m still a sub with Jason, and I will check it out later today.

    SPY back in a downtrend. Trend trading is not looking good going into the summer months using the 10 dma and 20 dma. I might have to go back to trading using only the 2 hour chart. I like to trade both ways in a market like this one. Buyers already moved the SPX price back above the 50 dma.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1592

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Stocks Haven't Done This for More Than 6 Months
    Jason Goepfert
    Published: 2021-05-20 at 0700 CDT

    The bears tried. They failed but seem to be making another run today.

    After letting some air out of Tech stocks and some former highfliers, bulls have made a stand and kept the broader market steady. Once again, sellers failed to push the S&P 500 down even 5% from its peak. It got close last week but held above that threshold.

    https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...than-6-months/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1593

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: Testing the 5 and 10 dma...... If it makes it the 20 dma could be tougher..... We shall see how it plays out....

    That will be a buy signal for many if it move above and hold.....
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...17&a=947889939
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #1594

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: Bulls working on taking back the 20 dma..... (CT = counter trend rally) One would think we shall see a push up at the close...... Doing some ST trading and taking a Beer Money trade using SDS as I wait for a confirmed long signal. Lots of reasons why one should not to buy yet, but I will take the signal when it comes and keep it small. This is a very weak rally as SS points out below.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...17&a=947889939
    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels

    14m
    2:15 PM

    C/T Rally Continues

    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels

    3h
    11 AM

    Markets Rebound On Weak Breadth
    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1595

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: The cycle dudes like the move above the 10 dma, as do I. However, I will wait to see a confirmed trend taking place before I go long again..... Yes, I track and use cycles, but NEVER make a trade based on only the cycle.

    The 5/22/21 Weekend Report Preview
    Posted on May 22, 2021

    Stocks lost the 10 day MA on Monday then backtested the 50 day MA on Wednesday, forming a double bottom.
    Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Stocks went on to close a full candle body above the 10 day MA on Friday to indicate that day 48 was the DCL. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band indicates that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend. A close above the 4200 resistance level should lead to a trending move.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1596

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: My daily cycle chart. I ST trade long and short based on the 5 and 10 dma's, but I have to see a confirmed trend taking place above the 20 dma before placing MT positions, and then I still use stops. The BTFD after tagging the 50 dma, remains in play until it's not. We shall see how next week plays out.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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