mmk,
I'm not an investor, but if I was I would use the weekly 10 wma. I trade using the daily, and that might be for you too if you have the time. I think Tom has a really good service as others here do for investing with limited moves. As for investing in a Bear Market.... cash is King!
Some thoughts on trend trading.....
https://www.fibtimer.com/about/prior_commentaries.asp
I'm not recommending Fibtimer's service, but his reports give you an idea of how trend traders trade. I also use cycles and look for extremes and cycle lows to trade.
The bottom line for me is I trade what is happening and not what I think will happen. I don't try and pick tops or bottoms. I'm using the 5, 10, 20, and 50 dma for MT trading. The 20 dma/50 dma would be more for an investor using TSP. I use the 5, and 10 dma and cycle data for ST trading. Read Fib's reports, and back test using my daily chart below and see where you would have bought and sold. Keep in mind trend trading doesn't work very well in a Bear Market. I have unlimited moves in my Vanguard account so I can move in and out of indexes as often as I want during the trading day based on my sell and buy signals. AND YES..... I get whipsawed sometimes, but I can sell quickly if I have to. That is not so easy using TSP. One should have a Roth IRA at Vanguard using a brokerage account in my opinion, and not just TSP. That is one of the best pieces of advice I gave myself over the years. Once the Bear starts and investor BTFD to soon things will change. At some point the Fed will no longer be able to keep the market moving higher. History proves that.....
Like I said, in a Bear Market cash is king as you wait for the next extreme to trade.
Bottom Line: There is NO SUCH thing as a perfect system, but trend trading works well for me in the current market. That will change once the next bear starts. Like I said, Tom as a good system as do others here for investing in TSP. The more important thing most have to learn is Risk Management. Wait to buy or add during extremes and most have a very hard time doing that.
A small comment from Kaplan.
We are likely to get compelling bargains later in 2021 which could gain substantially within one year.
May 14, 2021: Wait patiently for bargains.
Most investors are far too heavily invested early in a bear market, thereby not only causing them to lose money into frequent severe pullbacks but also to have insufficient cash to capitalize upon worthwhile bargains when they are created. I expect numerous compelling purchase opportunities before the end of the year with many of them occurring this summer. Raise cash now to be able to take full advantage of chances to buy shares which in some cases could double or more within about one year or less. If you made this mistake during the first quarter of 2020 then be better prepared this year.
Kaplan
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
I hope this will give you some ideas to think over for investing using a MT trading system. I'm a trader NOT AN INVESTOR Brother!
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