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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1489

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: The trend remains up so you have to be in cash or long SPY....

    Amazing!

    Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined

    PUBLISHED FRI, APR 9 202110:41 AM EDTUPDATED FRI, APR 9 20212:07 PM EDT

    KEY POINTS

    More money has gone into stock-based funds over the past five months than the previous 12 years combined, according to Bank of America.

    In raw numbers, $569 billion has flowed into global equity funds since November, compared with $452 billion going back to the beginning of the 2009-2020 bull market.

    “There’s a certain amount of logic to markets right now,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Holdings.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/09/inve...box=1617997709
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    • File Type: jpg a.jpg (97.8 KB, 95 views)
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1490

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    You can sign up for a free daily newsletter at the link below.

    FOMO creates inverted hedging
    Not overly surprising given the melt up as greed kicks in, but add this one to possible accidents about to happen.

    People are opening more puts to sell than to buy. Yes, that is basically the Texas hedge.

    This is what you want to see at market lows, not here.

    Watching closely...
    https://themarketear.com/
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    • File Type: jpg a.jpg (36.3 KB, 85 views)
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  4.  
  5. #1491

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    When there is no yelling you should not be selling
    The volume melt-down continues. You could argue that it is just reversing to mean, but it is still very different from how the year started. And, more importantly, our own proprietary "noise" indicator (that measures incoming activity from sell-side) is at extreme Christmas like levels. That supports a quiet continued low volume melt-up.
    https://themarketear.com/
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    • File Type: jpg a.jpg (42.7 KB, 82 views)
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  6.  
  7. #1492

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    From a 2 day settlement to a 1 day settlement - The new guy is about to take over.....

    Gary Gensler has a full agenda as he gets set to take over the SEC

    whether it is feasible to move from the current two-day settlement period for stocks (T + 2) to a one-day settlement period.Gamestop fallout
    The Gamestop situation has led to numerous calls for investigations around gamification of trading, market manipulation, and whether it is feasible to move from the current two-day settlement period for stocks (T + 2) to a one-day settlement period.

    In a recent call with reporters, Christopher Gilkerson, Charles Schwab’s senior vice president and general counsel, said any reform initiated by Gensler “would focus on rapidly moving to T+1 settlement, better surveillance on potential market manipulation through social media and better disclosure for short sellers. And probably a focus on gamification of investing.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/gary...r-the-sec.html

    SPY daily chart: The move up continues.....
    Attached Images Attached Images
    • File Type: jpg a.jpg (104.0 KB, 81 views)
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  8.  
  9. #1493

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Watching th VIX....

    VVIXed?
    Earlier today we wrote about the number one inverse indicator when it comes to picking lows in VIX, our "VIX guy".

    Looks like he picked it again (the inverse way), creating an almost 100% track record since we first mentioned him a few years ago.

    VIX is up, but even more noteworthy is the move in VVIX.

    Watch the gap between VVIX adn VIX carefully....
    https://themarketear.com/
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    • File Type: jpg a.jpg (63.1 KB, 78 views)
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  10.  
  11. #1494

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX weekly data:

    The pattern indicates we should see a move back up to the upper BB soon...
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    Last edited by robo; 04-15-2021 at 08:01 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  13. #1495

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    From a 2 day settlement to a 1 day settlement - The new guy is about to take over.....

    Gary Gensler has a full agenda as he gets set to take over the SEC

    whether it is feasible to move from the current two-day settlement period for stocks (T + 2) to a one-day settlement period.Gamestop fallout
    The Gamestop situation has led to numerous calls for investigations around gamification of trading, market manipulation, and whether it is feasible to move from the current two-day settlement period for stocks (T + 2) to a one-day settlement period.

    In a recent call with reporters, Christopher Gilkerson, Charles Schwab’s senior vice president and general counsel, said any reform initiated by Gensler “would focus on rapidly moving to T+1 settlement, better surveillance on potential market manipulation through social media and better disclosure for short sellers. And probably a focus on gamification of investing.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/gary...r-the-sec.html

    SPY daily chart: The move up continues.....
    Hi Robo, Thanks for this info!
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 4-20-21=100%G/4-19-21=G85%-i15%/ 4-9-21=60C, 30I-10G/ www.theepochtimes.com

  14.  
  15. #1496

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Love charts you posted (Posts 1489 & 1492) and especially your post on VIX versus VVIX.
    What is the gold line and what comparison is represented by overlying red OHLC price bars (red crosses)?....can't read key. Thank you!
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 4-20-21=100%G/4-19-21=G85%-i15%/ 4-9-21=60C, 30I-10G/ www.theepochtimes.com

  16.  
  17. #1497

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I like to trade GDXJ and look for and use patterns in my trading. Please note what happened to GDXJ ( It is the gold solid line 1492 and 1489) when the SPY topped (candle sticks) and moved lower. GDXJ bottomed closer to when the SPY did. Will that repeat? Not sure, but the pattern says one should be careful here if this pattern repeats.

    I remain long GDXJ from $43.75 when I took the lower BB crash trade. This was day 14 for this ST trend......
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by robo; 04-15-2021 at 06:29 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #1498

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    You can see on this weekly ratio chart of the SPY/GLD/GDXJ/UUP what happened the last two big selloffs and that is what I'm tracking.

    Bottom Line: GDXJ and the SPY remain in a uptrend, but owning now puts you at a much higher risk reward level.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1499

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDXJ daily: GDXJ has seen tough resistance since the Aug high when tagging the upper BB. We shall see how this move plays out, and if stocks and the dollar are still in play here.

    Take care Dreamboat!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1500

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    TLT daily - Is normally a flight to safety by the Whales..... Why such a big move up today?

    There is a very rare pattern on the TLT daily chart that was produced today. A gap up and a tag of the upper BB. We shall have to see how this plays out. Maybe it means nothing, but I still track any rare or extreme pattern.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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