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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1477

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM continues to be extremely stretched above its 200 dma..... not that most investors even care. However, I do!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1478

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    TLT heading for June support levels.

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  5. #1479

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I just bought a tranche of TLT and some TZA. When IWM moves above the upper BB on a news event TZA is usually a winner in the days ahead. This is a short term trade.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...27&a=866890402

    Take Care. Now that the election is almost complete I will post at the other site more.

    TLT.....


    Vanguard homepage

    Notice of a brokerage order execution
    Dear robo

    The following order executed on 01/06/2021 at 10:12 AM, Eastern time:

    Account: 0330
    Transaction type: Buy
    Order type: Market
    Security: ISHARES 20+ YR TREASURY BOND ETF (TLT)
    Quantity: 25 share(s)
    Price:* $152.34
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    Last edited by robo; 01-06-2021 at 12:17 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #1480

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL.... Another whipsaw..... Waiting to see how this plays out..... I'm not buying back VTI just yet....


    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels
    ·
    2h
    Wednesday 10:00:

    SS LOLR STS
    Down Up Up
    2/5 7/0 6/1

    Breadth: 1100/1000

    McO +8

    LOLR BUY Signal- Comments at 11 AM

    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  8.  
  9. #1481

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI daily remains on a buy signal as it moves above the upper BB...... Not were I like to buy!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  10.  
  11. #1482

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Speculative “V”
    Print Friendly, PDF & Email




    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
    President, Hussman Investment Trust

    January 2021

    The full-cycle and long-term market outlook remains dismal
    I continue to expect a loss in the S&P 500 on the order of 65-70% over the completion of the current market cycle. As I noted about my 83% loss projection for tech stocks in March 2000, “if you understand values and market history, you know we’re not joking.” A loss on the order of 65-70% would merely bring the S&P 500 to historical norms that have been followed by historically run-of-the-mill returns.

    Still, suppose one believes that U.S. stocks should forever be priced at levels implying long-term returns of roughly 5.5% annually (without ever approaching 9% or even 7%). In that world, stock prices and fundamentals would grow in parallel, but the ratio between prices and fundamentals would have to maintain a “permanently high plateau.” We can’t actually rule that out, but one should also realize that an increase of just 0.5% annually in the long-term return required by investors would still induce a 25% market loss. So even slight variations in permanently extreme valuations and permanently low returns would produce substantial cyclical volatility anyway, and as full-cycle investors, we’d be just fine with that.

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210118/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #1483

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Investing When Intoxicated

    Jan. 18, 2021 4:52 AM ET

    Steven Jon Kaplan

    Contrarian, ETF investing, Portfolio Strategy


    Summary
    The large-cap Nasdaq collapses of 1973-1974 and 2000-2002 are likely to be repeated along with severe losses for many other fluctuating assets.

    Safe-haven assets have quietly completed important bottoming patterns.

    The disappearing Trump mystique provides an emotional excuse for "huge" asset losses.

    We have experienced all-time record levels of speculative call buying, penny-stock chasing, massive percentage increases for marginally profitable companies, IPO eagerness, and numerous other multi-decade and even multi-century records, which, in many cases, have surpassed rare bubble extremes from periods like 1928-1929, 1972-1973, and 1999-2000.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/439...content=link-1
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1484

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Retail Army: have they opted for the nuclear option?

    Some perspective on Retail Army and their propelling of the stock market higher. Retail investors have grown to over 55% of the options market, up from 40-45% pre-COVID. In the cash market, QDS estimates that Retail is 18-20% of cash market volumes (in # of shares terms), up from 10-12% pre-COVID. More data points stand out… Demand for single-name call options continues to accelerate with $285bn in call ADV over the last week (4 std dev above avg), $13bn in new premium spent on calls last week (vs $2bn run rate pre-COVID), odd lot volume just off historical highs, and low dollar priced volume exploding, to name a few

    Welcome to speculation all time high
    Small trader call buying mania exceeded 9% of total NYSE volume last week (adjusted for equivalent shares). Everybody is an options pro, but have probably no clue about theta and other greeks. On the other hand, do you need that knowledge if you are buying lottery tickets only?

    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1485

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    LOL.... Another whipsaw..... Waiting to see how this plays out.....
    Looks like Don is back on a 50% sell as of 1/15.


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  19. #1486

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Looks like Don is back on a 50% sell as of 1/15.
    LOL..... Yes Sir! He "SHOULD" start building a short position this week if he doesn't get whipsawed again. We should see some increased selling pressure this week in the stock market. The futures are up which is normal for easy money Monday, or Tuesday in this case due to the holiday.

    The herd sure love's small caps.....
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    Last edited by robo; 01-18-2021 at 09:00 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1487

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Possible H&S top forming here.

    hs top.png

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