Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Guess the "pullback" happened on Friday. I'm wondering when this end of the year selling will happen, particularly the tax loss harvesting for value stocks.

Realistically, this is the last week of trading before new year. Those stocks that underperformed due to the shutdowns will be under pressure. Most of my holdings are getting whacked today but none of them are high flyers.

SPY is again having trouble staying above the 3 ema today after a nice gap up. I will see how we close, but I already reduced down to a 10% position.

There are several very important risk/reward indicators that caused me to reduce, but these were the most important ones hitting extremes.

Data: ROBO, Dumb money buying, Smart Money/Insiders selling, Options Speculation Index, and the current risk appetite by traders.

I get this data mainly from Sentiment Trader, but not all....

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

I remain long with only a 10% position.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up!

Again, the SPY is still having some trouble holding above the 3 ema, but the Bulls/Buyers are clearly in charge as most LOVE STOCKS! This will be day 4 IF we close below the 3 ema.... I use the closing prices for signals, but do short-trade using the 2 hour charts.... I don't post that data here.... We are now at 30 days for this run on my daily chart..... I trade the daily.

Good Luck on your positions Brother!

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader

Dec 14
This is the fastest (almost) doubling in the small-cap Russell 2000 in its history, beating its prior (almost) doubling from the '82 bottom by 10 days.

In the 3 months after the other times the Russell (almost) doubled, its average risk was -7.8% versus reward of only +1.2%.

VXF: A huge move since the March lows...... A very nice run! I don't normally trade the Russell 2000, but I do trade VXF at Vanguard.


Bottom Line: The trend remains up, but the risk/reward level is not very good..... That doesn't mean we cant keep moving higher, but one should have reduced some on the way up....

SPY and VXF monthly: The moves above the upper BB on the monthly chart will not continue much longer based on the data I use.....

I am curious is SPY above the Bollinger band on the bi-annual, 5 year, 10 year, and 15 year basis i mean tagging any of these 5 together can concoct a bear signal.....I guess for some. Spy is not above the Bollinger band neither on the daily or weekly basis this must be some algorithms you have written.

Originally Posted by grimmjsg123

I am curious is SPY above the Bollinger band on the bi-annual, 5 year, 10 year, and 15 year basis i mean tagging any of these 5 together can concoct a bear signal.....I guess for some. Spy is not above the Bollinger band neither on the daily or weekly basis this must be some algorithms you have written.

Money has been flowing out of the SPY (Big caps) and into value/small caps, rotation. This caused a huge move up, and a rare extreme above the upper BB for IWM and VXF on the monthly charts. Rare extremes usually revert back to the mean going forward. Day 31 for this run up on the daily chart, and a buy signal for me using VXF. VXF is like the S Fund and I trade it at Vanguard. I trade the daily data because I have unlimited moves.

https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool

RUT.....

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...505027/photo/1

$VIX: Daily....

HMMMM....... What is this telling us?

$VIX: Weekly.....

Still trying to fill the gap or was it close enough?

Originally Posted by robo

$VIX: Daily....

HMMMM....... What is this telling us?

I don't know. 200 DMA turning down?