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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1333

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM Monthly - How about this for a monthly candle. (See chart)

    It's up and out of the upper BB, and not much fear out there as the $VIX continues to move lower....

    These are sure different times, and full of extremes. Just when I think I have seen it all I get another surprise. I guess this is just part of the new normal. Huge moves above the upper BB on a monthly chart.

    Bottom Line: The trend remains up!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1334

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Sven Henrich
    @NorthmanTrader

    12h
    The most valued market in history is approaching month end with the lowest monthly options/equity put/call ratio ever as asset managers are the most long positioned ever.

    It is literally the most one sided and most complacent market ever.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1335

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Sven Henrich
    @NorthmanTrader

    13h
    Getting there
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #1336

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDX Weekly: A nice bounce off the 50 wma, but I still haven't bought shares back....

    Cycle data: I don't buy based on cycle data only. Gold and the miners have a history of bottoming in December, but some that is because of the dollar. I continue to track and look to buy.

    Miner Support

    On the weekly chart — the Miners formed a bullish weekly reversal this week at support from the 50 week MA. Only once in the past 5 years did the intermediate Miner cycle stretch past 32 weeks — and that one ran 33 weeks. So at 36 weeks, once a weekly swing low forms it should signal the new intermediate cycle. A break above 35.57 will form a weekly swing low. The Miners did close below the lower weekly cycle band to end its weekly uptrend and begin its weekly downtrend. Closing below the lower weekly cycle band indicates that the Miners are seeking out their yearly cycle low.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...ner-support-4/
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    Last edited by robo; 11-28-2020 at 08:47 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #1337

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GLD December Bottoms: Purple vertical lines. We are getting closer, but I wait. There will be plenty of time to buy once the trend is confirmed.
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    Last edited by robo; 11-28-2020 at 09:03 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #1338

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GLD weekly: A closer look.... GLD still has two big gaps left behind, but I don't if they will fill. GLD is close to tagging the 50 wma, and it's a good spot for support to happen. The miners usually lead and are sending a good signal too, but still no buy for me. So I will wait. I will be buying SILJ....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #1339

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SILJ daily: Have a nice weekend! A bounce off the lower BB has been a nice short-term trade for months now. We shall see how this bounce plays out. You can see buyers sure came in Friday. The divergence remains a concern as the SPY and SILJ tend to bottom together. Waiting to see which one is leading. Normally the miners lead and turn first.

    Anyway, the bounce off the lower BB looks bullish for now..... So we shall see how it plays out.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1340

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SLV daily: Silver was very stretched above its 200 dma, and is almost back home to the mean. It has really reduced the gap.... The 200 dma is around $19.00ish, but support has been around $20.00ish and has held up the last few months. I have NO position in silver, and will be buying the miners not the metals. Note the 3 big gaps that were left behind and could still fill as we move closer to the 200 dma.... I heard often during this move up we would never see $20.00 again from the silver bugs, but here we are as we move back closer to the mean. There is also a huge divergence between SLV and SPY...... That is not normal!

    Good Trading!

    Adam Hamilton

    With silver remaining high despite being in a healthy correction, silver miners’ super-bullish trend of fast-improving fundamentals is likely to continue. That portends much-higher silver-stock prices in silver's next upleg.

    While gold governs the extent of silver corrections, silver's 200-day moving average is strong support for major bottomings. Mid-month that was running $20.17 and rising. If silver challenges that at some point before Q4 ends, it would still be hard to imagine this quarter's average silver price falling under $22 or so. And if SIL-top-15 AISCs climb back up near $12, that implies major silver miners still earning $10 per ounce.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/439...content=link-1
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    Last edited by robo; 11-28-2020 at 09:31 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1341

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    An extreme of extremes

    Spread out over a week, this is the most extremes we've seen among our indicators in 15 years. Other times we've seen more than 50% become extreme, stocks have had a tough time holding their upside momentum.

    https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...c0a-1271291994
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #1342

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    A nice move by the miners the last few days..... We shall see how this buy signal plays out....

    GDX Daily:
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1343

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    It sure has been a nice run. We haven't seen a 0.35 on the $CPCE data since around 2004. Based on the VIX data not many buying protection either.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1344

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    $VIX continues to move sideways along the 20.00ish area.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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