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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1249

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    LOL, Wolanchuk's response. I'd say most of those stops did get blown out on Friday (next day). ST, might be some carry over to Monday to those who couldn't cover or have found themselves in further margin calls.

    Thanks for the update from Steve.

    Miners cooling or preparing for a second wave higher?

    Fear of missing out is in effect. Upside risk/reward is stretched. Had to call TD earlier in the week. While I was on hold:

    #1 FAQ was "What is a margin call?"
    #2 FAQ was "Why is my account being flagged as a daytrading account?"

  2.  
  3. #1250

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    "Miners cooling or preparing for a second wave higher?"

    I'm back to a cash position again, but looking to buy the miners again once the trend stops moving down Brother. As you know I'm a trader and once the trend line fails I go to cash. Looking to buy back my SILJ position once it stops trending down and reverses.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...68&a=760984250

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IA...64&a=747068254

    Is the dollar about to turn?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SI...12&a=765826246

    Take Care Brother!

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...e-gold-sector/

    This Pattern Shows What’s Next for the Gold Sector
    By Jeff Clark
    June 3, 2020

    The action over the past two months has created a small “head and shoulders” pattern on the GDX chart. This is a bearish pattern that often signals the reversal from a bullish trend to a bearish trend.

    GDX has support at the “neckline” of the pattern at about $34. But, if that support fails, and GDX breaks the neckline, then it could quickly head towards the next support level near $30.50.

    That would be a decline of about 20% from last week’s high. And, that would be on par with the 15% decline in GDX last September, and the 18% decline in late February – which occurred right after the last two BPGDM sell signals.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1251

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Posted Today, 11:25 AM

    Another nice gap up for IWM..... the small cap trend remains up.

    I mainly trade VXF at Vanguard..... The move up continues.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...95&a=762176825

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...80&a=763515646

    Good Trading!

    LOL.... Bottom Line: Don't fight the Fed and adding Trillions does make it different this time. Buying the bonds did the trick. For now at least it has, but for how long and how much more are they willing to spend is the bigger question going into the election? Waiting to see if the election polls rock's things/. What if the Dem's take back the Senate? Crazy times indeed. However, no matter how it plays out I will just trade the trend and it remains up.
    Last edited by robo; 06-08-2020 at 02:03 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #1252

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    no matter how it plays out I will just trade the trend and it remains up.
    New members and those who get caught up in headlines need to follow this man's charts.

  8.  
  9. #1253

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The trend remains up, but the Risk/Reward continues to increase..... The guy below (video) talks about some of the indicators I use for Risk Management. Remain long when the trend is up, but position size needs to be looked over when the Risk/Reward indicators start hitting extremes like they are now. That's "IF" you are a trader like I am. Once the move breaks the trend line I just watch and don't care about getting whipsawed, but I have unlimited moves at Vanguard. That is why everyone should be moving to Roth IRA's and I recommend Vanguard. LOL.... Trust me! Taxes are going MUCH higher in the years ahead!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...80&a=763515646

    Look at this huge setup unfolding in S&P 500. Squeeze the FOM


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaid3YdfCcs

    Technical Analysis: TheTechnicalTraders Review

    Does FOMO have you pacing around your house today?
    Visit Technical Traders Ltd. – Technically Proven Strategies, Alerts, & Courses to learn more.
    Today and next week the S&P 500, market sentiment, volatility, Put/Call Ratio, and multi-year next
    Last edited by robo; 06-08-2020 at 03:20 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  10.  
  11. #1254

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    New members and those who get caught up in headlines need to follow this man's charts.
    Thanks! A simple trend trading system works well if investors will just follow the rules....

    A few thoughts on trend trading....

    https://www.fibtimer.com/about/prior_commentaries.asp
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  12.  
  13. #1255

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    "IWM" - not as overbought now. The 5 EMA failed ( and is also turning down). It looks like we "MIGHT" BT the 13 EMA. The trend remains up until the 13 EMA fails. However, I'm flat and waiting. I have been VST trading TZA/SDS and some VXX at Vanguard.

    Looking for another buying op to trade MTDR. The move above the trend line was almost perfect for trend trading.... My best trade this year. Note how close it follows IWM... The 13 EMA is for MT trading.... I sometime use the 10 SMA, but I'm now using the 3,5 and 13 EMA

    Good Trading!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...30&a=762176825

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TN...87&a=767848875

    Euphoria To Panic To Euphoria
    Jun. 10, 2020 7:20 AM ET|16 comments

    Steven Jon Kaplan
    Contrarian, registered investment advisor, ETF investing, portfolio strategy
    Overlapping Overextended Opportunities

    Summary
    It is as important to sell now as it had been at the most extreme stock-market peaks in history including August 1929, January 1973, March 2000, and October 2007.

    Whenever assets are dangerously overpriced, they are far more vulnerable to above-average percentage losses.

    At every major market top in history there is an overconfidence that nothing bad can happen because of one reason or another.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...content=link-0
    Last edited by robo; 06-10-2020 at 01:54 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  14.  
  15. #1256

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The Fed speaks and all is well.... The monthly charts are all looking very good again..... (Note the M1)

    Monthly data:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...88&a=764977054

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...50&a=760647527



    For Traders - IWM is still having some trouble @ the 5 EMA, but the trend remains up..... I wait! VST trading some SDS and some VXX.... ( Bought some VXX after the Fed speak move) This is just a trade not a hedge.

    I use VXX as a hedge for long positions once indicators become extreme and the 5 EMA fails if I hold MT long positions. Most of the time I just go to cash and wait for the next extreme. LOL.... I don't care about missing out on moves up... FOMO! I'm to close to 70 to worry about that. Lower risk is the way I play it these days.

    Vanguard homepage -

    Notice of a brokerage order execution
    Dear

    The following order executed on 06/10/2020 at 2:19 PM, Eastern time:

    Account:
    Transaction type: Buy
    Order type: Market
    Security: BARCLAYS IPATH SER B S&P 500 VIX SHORT TERM FUTURE ETN (VXX)
    Quantity: share(s)
    Price:* $29.91

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...30&a=762176825
    Last edited by robo; 06-10-2020 at 02:47 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  16.  
  17. #1257

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Sold VXX @ 37.52....and still holding SDS.... I have NO IDEA how this move down will play out. Tom has been pointing out these gaps that were left behind. A few got filled real quick the last few days.....

    Good Trading!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...47&a=762176825

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...32&a=763515646

    Watching for the next long setup....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...83&a=762174620
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  18.  
  19. #1258

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The retest of the lows talk should be coming back out again.... I just trade the trend, but my LT data chart does support another move down. But when? Now, later. The Fed stopped the retest that is a fact and the FOMO crew got us to new highs in some indexes.... IWM and the NYSE are now trending down again on the monthly chart. Fed to the rescue? We shall see...... Hard to call this a Bull Market with swings like these..... The SPX remains above the monthly trend line I use for now.....

    The $NYA data is the most important index on the chart for me. However, the IWM double top is also an important indicator in my opinion. Waiting to see if they can come up with another rescue.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...88&a=764977054



    Mark Hulbert
    Opinion: Hulbert: My stock market forecast for June is likely wrong — but watch out for August
    Published: May 30, 2020 at 11:52 a.m. ET
    By Mark Hulbert

    The March lows of the coronavirus crash could still be tested



    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hu...?mod=home-page


    Note the date:

    Mark Hulbert
    Opinion: Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it
    Published: April 11, 2020 at 4:26 p.m. ET
    By Mark Hulbert

    U.S. market history points to a final bottom in August

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...-it-2020-04-09


    https://muckrack.com/mktwhulbert/articles

    Sold my VXX early.... It just went over $40.00..... Waiting and watching these crazy moves!
    Last edited by robo; 06-11-2020 at 03:26 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  20.  
  21. #1259

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    It's been a while since I posted here, but I have been involved in some things that limited me to how many places I could post. I was posting at a private site/forum with other traders, but most of the posts are now political posts. There are very few trading comments posted anymore, so I moved on.

    I do a lot of short-term trading, but mostly I'm a Trend Trader.

    So, on to my reason for posting today. First, what a year of extremes! I took a pretty good hit in one of our accounts at Vanguard in March, but have recovered nicely, and the funds that recovered are now tax free.

    Which brings me to the point of this post. I'm getting close to 70 now, and since they moved the RMD out to 72 we decided to convert our remaining funds to a Roth IRA this year. We did it after the big selloff in March.

    Why, because I think taxes are going up in the years ahead, and NO RMD with a Roth. I think my wife has above average chance of making it into here 90's. There are other reasons that might make sense to others and I will post that information below.

    I have been converting my TSP funds into Roth IRA's for years now, and have completed all of my TSP funds now. I did it in small chunks over several years. So for those that are retired or close to it maybe this is something to think about.

    Steven Kaplan wrote a series of articles about Roth IRA's in his updates, and I thought about TSPtalk, and maybe it might help or benefit some of the members here.

    I asked for permission and he granted it to post this Roth series from his updates. I have been a sub with him for many years now.

    So with all that said I will post the articles.... The series is in six parts, and very easy to understand. He is a Tax Expert and these articles, and all information is based on current tax laws. Anyway, it's something you might want to think about doing.

    Take Care and Have a Nice Day! TGIF for those that are still working....
    Part (1 of 6)

    Today's main topic is Roth, part one.


    One of the most underappreciated features of the tax code in the U.S. and Canada is the ability to put money into accounts which grow tax-free for life and where you generally don't have to pay any tax upon withdrawal. In the United States these mostly include Roth IRA, Roth 401(k), Roth 403(b), Roth individual (solo) 401(k), and similar accounts. For more than two decades I have been concentrating on moving the assets of myself, my Dad, and my clients into these kinds of accounts. Recent and likely upcoming legislation has made these accounts even more favorable than they had been relative to other kinds of accounts. I will discuss the main purpose of these accounts and how to get as much money as you can into them over the long run.


    Roth accounts have existed since the beginning of 1998.


    Until 1998 the only kinds of retirement accounts in the United States were those where you would get an income reduction by putting money into some kind of personal or business retirement account. You would then be required to pay taxes upon withdrawal, thereby making it a tax deferral rather than a true tax savings. A U.S. Senator from Delaware named William V. Roth Jr. came up with the idea of inverting this approach by creating an account where there is no up-front tax savings but then you get to keep all the money without having to pay any taxes upon withdrawal. The advantage to the government is that there is no immediate tax savings so the government doesn't receive lower revenue in the short run. The huge advantage for investors is that money which compounds tax-free is far more lucrative than money where taxes will eventually have to be paid on all the gains.


    Many short-sighted investors underestimate the power of Roth accounts since they don't get an immediate tax savings.


    It took time for Roth accounts to catch on, primarily since most people are far too obsessed with the short run. People would rather save a thousand dollars on their taxes this year than ten or twenty thousand dollars over a period of years. However, eventually financial advisors and analysts recognized the superior advantage of Roth accounts which has made them far more popular today than they were when they were originally introduced. Since their debut, Roth accounts now exist for nearly all other kinds of retirement accounts including Roth 401(k), Roth 403(b), and for self-employed individuals, a Roth individual 401(k) which is sometimes called a Roth solo 401(k). My wife and I have money in all of the above types of accounts, so it is worth examining the pros and cons of these accounts and how they compare with "traditional" retirement accounts. It is also a good idea to compare how retirement accounts in Canada have similar features to a Roth, especially the TFSA (for individuals) and Group TFSA (for businesses).


    Not paying taxes on capital gains, dividends, and interest can compound dramatically through a period of decades.


    The primary advantage of Roth, TFSA, and similar accounts is that taxes don't have to be paid on all gains in these accounts for the lifetime of the account holder and for ten years following the death of the account holder. Mathematically this ends up being an exponential improvement over an account where taxes have to be paid on gains, especially since combined federal, state, and local taxes can be substantial. In contrast, traditional retirement accounts can often be inferior to ordinary taxable accounts because in a non-Roth retirement account all gains will be taxed upon withdrawal as ordinary income. Thus, in a taxable account you get the benefit of a low federal rate for long-term capital gains and qualified dividends whereas in a non-Roth retirement account, even if you have these kinds of income, you will have to pay tax upon withdrawal at your marginal tax rate which will likely significantly exceed the federal tax-preferenced rate.


    Roth accounts have numerous additional advantages.


    Unlike traditional retirement accounts, Roth accounts have no required minimum distributions. You can contribute to them at any age. They can also be easily inherited, usually without increasing the tax burden of the heir. Roth accounts are often protected from creditors. Even minors can establish Roth accounts with an adult custodian which I usually highly recommend. Roth income of all kinds is not taxed in any U.S. state or locality. There are penalties for withdrawal prior to age 59-1/2 but there are many legal exceptions which allow you to avoid this penalty.


    Money in non-Roth retirement accounts can be converted into Roth accounts with no limits.


    In case you have money in non-Roth retirement accounts then you can convert that money into Roth accounts with no annual limit. Unfortunately you can't undo these conversions once they are done which used to be permitted under a method known as recharacterizations. I will explain the details of such conversions in part two.


    You can contribute to two kinds of Roth accounts each year: personal and business.


    In a Roth IRA each person can contribute six thousand dollars per year, or seven thousand if over age 50, along with another six or seven thousand dollars for your spouse. Even if your income exceeds the official maximum levels you can still make such a contribution through a two-step process known as a back-door Roth which I will describe in more detail in part two. In addition, each person can contribute a much larger amount into a Roth 401(k) or Roth 403(b) if you either own your own business or you are an employee of any company, non-profit or otherwise.


    Qualified joint ventures are very powerful for married spouses who work for the same company which they own.


    If you own a company with your spouse then each of you can contribute a maximum of 19,500 if you are under age 50 or 26,000 if you are age 50 or older, which means a total of 52 thousand dollars if both of you are 50 or older and you jointly own your company. This is most easily done with a company structure known as a qualified joint venture rather than a sole proprietorship or partnership or LLC. I dissolved my own LLC specifically to be permitted to contribute twice as much into Roth individual 401(k) accounts.


    I will talk more about qualified joint ventures in part two of this topic which I will try to complete by Sunday.


    The bottom line: Roth-style accounts are far superior to the alternatives.


    You will grow your net worth much more quickly by gradually moving your net worth into Roth IRAs, Roth 401(k)s, Roth 403(b)s, HSAs, TFSAs and Group TFSAs(Canada), and similar accounts where you can grow your money tax-free and where you or an heir will not have to pay money upon withdrawal. Establish a long-term plan to contribute the maximum and potentially convert non-Roth assets each year into these accounts.

    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1260

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Part (2 of 6)

    Today's first main topic is Roth, part two.


    In part one of my Roth discussion I summarized the advantages of establishing Roth accounts or their equivalents like TFSAs and group TFSAs in Canada and other countries. I will continue this topic in upcoming weeks, with part two today focusing on how U.S. residents and citizens can maximize new personal Roth contributions each year regardless of income. Future Roth topics will include contributing to Roth 401(k) accounts if you own your own company or are an employee of any company; Roth conversions; and Roth equivalencies in other countries.


    Unless you have no combined earned income you can contribute one way or another to Roth accounts for you and your spouse.


    One limitation to contributing to Roth accounts is that it cannot be done with "unearned" income. If your entire combined income for a given calendar year for yourself and your spouse is from capital gains, dividends, and interest then you will not qualify for a Roth contribution. However, if your total combined earned income from your own businesses and employee income (W-2 or 1099) is more than zero then you can contribute for both yourself and your spouse. Any person under age 50 can contribute a maximum of six thousand dollars for yourself and your spouse; if you or your spouse is 50 or over then you can contribute seven thousand dollars for each such person. If your total combined income for yourself and your spouse is fourteen thousand dollars or more and both of you are 50 years of age or older, even if only one of you has earned income, then both of you can contribute the seven-thousand maximum for the calendar year. If the money is earned in 2020 then you contribute for the 2020 tax year at any time in 2020 starting on January 1, or you can do so by April 15, 2021 if you prefer.


    Your accountant many not know about a back-door Roth which is available to individuals and couples with high incomes.


    Many accountants falsely tell their clients that they cannot invest in Roth IRA(s) since their clients have incomes which exceed the permitted maximum levels for direct Roth contributions. Once your modified adjusted gross income for 2020 is above 124 thousand dollars if you're single, or 196 thousand if you're married, you can no longer directly contribute the six- or seven-thousand maximum for yourself and your spouse. However, this can be evaded--completely legally--by doing a back-door Roth contribution for both of you. While the name "back-door" may sound sneaky or something the IRS might audit, it has been upheld repeatedly by Congress and in tax court.


    With a back-door Roth contribution you can't directly transfer money from a bank or brokerage account into a Roth account. Instead, you have to set up two accounts: a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA. There is no limitation at any age to contributing the maximum into a traditional IRA. On the following day you can then convert this amount into a Roth account. It thus takes two accounts and two steps but the effect is nearly the same. I say "nearly" because, depending upon how much money you have altogether in other non-Roth accounts, the conversion may cause you to pay higher taxes for the calendar year. This not actually a tax increase in the long run; you are merely paying taxes which you (or an heir) would have had to pay in the future upon withdrawing money from one of your non-Roth retirement accounts.

    Supercharge Your Retirement Savings with a Backdoor Roth IRA

    There are additional advantages to Roth accounts.


    The Wikipedia page for Roth retirement accounts lists an impressive array of advantages. One of these is never having to make required minimum distributions. Another is that when you do decide to make voluntary distributions they are tax-free. If you end up collecting Social Security in the future then the tax rate on your Social Security distributions will not be increased from any Roth distributions in the same year, whereas distributions from any non-Roth accounts will cause the tax on the same Social Security income to be higher--perhaps by a lot. If you die before the money is fully used and it is inherited, your heir can keep the entire Roth account intact for exactly ten years following the date of your death, during which time the money keeps growing completely tax-free. After ten years it has to be transferred into an ordinary bank or brokerage account. If your heir is close to you in age then the distribution can be stretched out over more than ten years; if your spouse inherits your Roth account then it can be transferred into one in your spouse's name with no required distributions at any time until after your spouse has passed away.


    As long as they have sufficient earned income you can fund Roth accounts for your children, grandchildren, friends, and anyone else.


    As long as you don't exceed the federal gift tax limits you can contribute to Roth accounts for others if they have sufficient earned income to qualify for contributions but they need the money for expenses. For example, you might have family members with low incomes that need almost all their money for essential expenses but would otherwise qualify to put six or seven thousand dollars into a Roth IRA for themselves and/or their spouses. You can make these contributions for them and it is equally valid.


    I know from personal experience that there are meaningful psychological advantages to having money in retirement accounts from a young age.


    I was fortunate that my Dad tricked me into setting up a retirement account when I was twenty-one years old. I got accustomed to the discipline of having money which was growing but which I wouldn't be able to spend for a period of several decades. The earlier that young people have their own Roth accounts, the more time they have to appreciate the value of having assets which they have no intention of spending until they are much older. This makes it far easier to make meaningful future plans and to learn that money is not something which is primarily meant to be spent. There is value for a young person knowing that they own assets which are solely in their name and are not dependent upon others' largesse or whims or inferior investment choices. It is especially advantageous for young people to make their own decisions about how to allocate their Roth accounts so they learn about taking charge of their financial future and what investing is all about.

    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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