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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1237

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    My IWM daily trend trading data is an important part of my trend trading system..... The move down started with a lower high 6 days in a row. That is not what IWM is suppose to be doing during a Bull Market....

    Risk/Reward!

    The IWM Daily data is currently trending down, and below the 10 DMA = Cash position

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UU...60&a=716775794
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1238

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Whatever They’re Doing, It’s Not “Investment



    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
    President, Hussman Investment Trust

    February 2020

    At the market open of Friday, January 24, our estimate of likely 12-year nominal total returns for a conventional passive investment portfolio (60% S&P 500, 30% Treasury bonds, 10% Treasury bills) fell to just 0.04% annually, below even the previous record of 0.34% set in August 1929. This extreme reflects the combination of record equity market valuations and depressed interest rates. That’s not an “equilibrium” situation. It’s a combination that joins insult with injury, creating weak prospects for the future returns of passive, diversified buy-and-hold strategies, across the board.

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200130/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1239

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The trend remains up on all three time frames I track..... I trade VXF......

    Daily - Long

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...44&a=719492968

    Weekly - Long

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...08&a=719491781

    Monthly - Long

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...79&a=719491857



    Enjoy the 3 day weekend..... I was out sick for a few weeks......



    U.S. large-cap equity indices are hitting new all-time highs so frequently that the media are taking them for granted.


    In 2020 we have had so many new all-time peaks for large-cap U.S. equity indices that the media greet these with a comment such as "another day, another new high" for the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. Meanwhile you hear nothing about most mid- and small-cap U.S. equity indices not achieving new all-time highs since August 31, 2018 or in some cases since January 26, 2018.


    Investors have become so accustomed to these new all-time highs that they are repeatedly bidding up overnight indices above their closing prices and often creating the highest intraday levels outside of regular trading hours including February 13, 2020 at 10:02 p.m. Eastern Time. If the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had been trading the S&P would have touched 3388.59 while the Nasdaq would have reached 9762.85. During the next bear-market bottoming process we will probably get some of the lowest-priced trades outside of regular trading hours.

    Kaplan

    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #1240

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The trend is currently down for all the indexes I track..... When to BTFD?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...70&a=719492968

    Make Good Choices

    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
    President, Hussman Investment Trust

    March 2020

    The menu of passive investment choices is now the worst in history
    When market valuations are reasonable or depressed, investors can expect that their willingness to take risk will be compensated by a satisfactory “risk premium” over the long-term. Conversely, when market valuations are elevated or extreme, investors put themselves in a position where the long-term compensation for taking risk becomes very thin.

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200225/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #1241

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    VXF just moved below the 200 DMA so I'm going to make a extreme oversold trade. SPY is getting very close to.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...57&a=719492968
    Last edited by robo; 02-27-2020 at 09:20 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #1242

    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Same here. Got out 100% on Monday evening and back my truck in last Friday evening. Glad to have gained a bunch of C and S papers.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    Got Beach???


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  13. #1243

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The SPY was unable to hold above the 200 DMA after a BT.... somewhat concerning....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...12&a=724416245
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1244

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Quote Originally Posted by dpmp View Post
    Same here. Got out 100% on Monday evening and back my truck in last Friday evening. Glad to have gained a bunch of C and S papers.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    Well done..... It's not easy buying with that much blood in the streets. This market remains high risk trading in my opinion.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1245

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    I'm watching energy too...

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...36&a=719491857

    Oil- and gas-related shares in many cases are better bargains today than most assets had been at their cheapest points of the 21st century:

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/432...est-in-oil-now

    VXF just back tested the lows.... I went long at Vanguard again after the BT for a trade.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...48&a=724416245
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  18.  
  19. #1246

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    WOW is all I can say......

    VXF's 200 week MA should get tagged today. That is where we bounced during the 2018 selloff. The trend remains ugly down.....

    VXF daily data:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...31&a=726034277


    VXF weekly data:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...15&a=719491781

    VXF monthly data: A long way to go down once we start the next Bear Market.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...48&a=719491857
    Last edited by robo; 03-09-2020 at 07:30 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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