Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
A updated comment about the W pattern....
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
Notice you will see something that looks like a "W" pattern as the market tops on the chart above. (Look at the dumb money/ smart money confidence level spread) Something I have used for years in my trading. Tom mentions it too.... Now look at the current pattern since they started "NOT QE" The patterns are clear, and the trend remains up, but that is another warning indicator I keep an eye on and track. The reasons don't matter to me why we get the pattern, but the current distorted pattern is a result of the Fed in my opinion.... The MT risk level has been at a 8 or a 9 for the longest run ever based on the data for back testing..... Another extreme....
Bottom Line - The trend remains up with another rare extreme....
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Don't fight the trend ( I mean the Fed). The trend remains up NO MATTER how many extremes we continue to see. Watching the SOX..... it can be a tell at tops....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...39&a=710071562
My 2 hour trading data....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...26&a=713753062
Bottom Line: The trend remains up, but with many extremes, and we are getting deep into this cycle..... A yearly cycle low is getting closer. It could be a mild one... A BT the 20 month MA or it could BT test the 50 month MA. It doesn't matter to me since I will be trading the daily trend and will be in cash once we move under the the daily MAs. 10 and 20 DMAs..... The yearly cycle low back tested (BT) the 50 month MA during the last YCL. I have know idea how this will play out with the Fed pumping huge amounts of money to it's primary dealers or whomever wants/need 50 billion a day.... The talk is hedge funds can line up too in the days ahead.... I would think many want Trump to stay in office. LOL... Better hope the Senate doesn't lose to many seats if the house remains in control by the Dems..... If that happens it will be four years of grid lock or worse. Lots for investors to think about in the months ahead. Trend traders just don't care...... We trade what is happening not what we think will happen.
Monthly
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...28&a=709838891
1 Attachment(s)
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Another extreme - The ROBO/Rydex Total Bull/ Bear Ratio. It now looks like the 2018 January data..... LOL... Nothing for investors to worry about.... Crazy times indeed.....
Chart by Sentiment Trader.
https://sentimentrader.com/blog/
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
Tweets & replies Media
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
4h4 hours ago
More
3:10
Market Celebrate P1 Trade Deal w/ Triple Digit Gain As Internals Weaken and VIX Strengthens
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Sven Henrich
Verified account
@NorthmanTrader
3h3 hours ago
More
If Newton was a technical analyst today:
"I can chart the motion of markets, but not the madness of people".
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
A nice move up for IWM this morning. Short covering? It doesn't matter really.... all that matters is the current trend and it remains up.....
Buying some VXX since the $VIX went under 12.00 this morning... Long VXX @ $13.38 for a trade....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...26&a=713753062
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
The MACD tool - How to use it, problems with this indicator, and how well it works
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
If you're a beginner at trading and want to learn about MACD, here's everything you need to know about this indicator.
How to use it, problems with this indicator, and how well it works
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
1 Attachment(s)
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
robo
A updated comment about the W pattern....
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
Notice you will see something that looks like a "W" pattern as the market tops on the chart above. (Look at the dumb money/ smart money confidence level spread) Something I have used for years in my trading. Tom mentions it too.... Now look at the current pattern since they started "NOT QE" The patterns are clear, and the trend remains up, but that is another warning indicator I keep an eye on and track. The reasons don't matter to me why we get the pattern, but the current distorted pattern is a result of the Fed in my opinion.... The MT risk level has been at a 8 or a 9 for the longest run ever based on the data for back testing..... Another extreme....
Bottom Line - The trend remains up with another rare extreme....
Do you watch patterns? The distorted W pattern is now starting to complete. I will post an updated chart later...
The trend remains up and it looks like the pattern is completing..... I can't wait to see how it plays out! I don't really care what causes these pattern. I just track them and this one has a 100% success rate so far. Will NOT QE change this pattern? So far it has really distorted it, and it's possible it's different this time. With the daily amount of easy money being injected into this market anything is possible. It will just be another extreme for me to watch as the trend remains up!
Have a good one....
Chart by Sentiment Trader:
https://sentimentrader.com/blog/
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Patterns....
Chart In Focus
SPY Number of Shares Outstanding Continuing to Rise
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learnin...nuing_to_rise/
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
I love those tweets for VST trading..... The trend remains up and the extremes continue to get more extreme.....
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
5m
A new record in Trump trumpeting stocks over the past 50 sessions.
Make America Greedy Again.
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Since I continue to bring up extremes..... QE to Da-Moon......
https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...mething-in-it/
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
More extremes..... However, the trend remains UP! I trade VXF only when long.... ( S Fund) How can you short a market trending up like this one? Many have tried..... You can pick up some beer money VST trading, but no matter how over priced it becomes the trend remains up. Don't fight the Feds.... I remain in cash based on the Risk/Reward data I use for trading..... What a show!
Daily - Up
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...03&a=714731912
Weekly - Up
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...48&a=714729663
Monthly - Up
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...07&a=713480033
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
8h8 hours ago
The Right Side of The Bookshelf Producing New Record Sentiment Extremes
Weekly Article at 4 PM Monday, Martin Luther King Day, 1-20-2020
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Well, I know the LOLR is down and several other MT indicators are giving out warning signals.
SevenSentinels
LOLR Down As Markets Back & Fill Intra-Day
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
However, the closing prices of the SPY, VXF, IWM, and the SOX ( indexes a track for my trading system) all closed "ABOVE" their 10 DMAs again today. That means remain long for my trend trading system. MT positions are for funds like TSP were you have limited moves, I would need to see a move below the 20 DMA and the MACD turning down. I don't guess at the turns. I trade what is happening using my indicators and not what I think will happen. The answer is yes? I do get whipsawed sometimes, but with unlimited moves at Vanguard it's easy to trade the daily..... I'm looking for the big runs that stay above the 10 DMA for weeks....
(Note that the 20 DMA for VXF was only been breached once since they started not QE, and it still did not produce a sell signal....) A very nice trending move and I use the daily closing prices for trend trading.
Bottom Line: The trend remains up, with the LOLR heading down...... I trade the 10 DMA since I can move in and out as often as I want at Vanguard using VXF.
LOL..... someday it will correct...MAYBE! Still trading some VXX.....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...43&a=714731912
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Tom McClellan
@McClellanOsc
My latest Chart In Focus article, "Small Cap Underperformance Is Not Over", is posted at
https://mcoscillator.com/learning_ce...e_is_not_over/.
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc