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Thread: Dow Transports

  1. #1

    Default Dow Transports

    The transports are leading the way down. The 50-day EMA held during last pullback. If it holds again, it may be an indication to buy the S&P again. Lots of support under it. Of course if it breaks, expect the S&P to follow.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  3. #2

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    Default Re: Dow Transports

    I remember just a few years back thinking "Dow Transports, who care about that?"

    Little did I know

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  5. #3

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    Default Re: Dow Transports

    The big dog fights back and gets above the 20 SMA...

    Attachment 6859
    Last edited by JTH; 01-30-2010 at 03:16 PM.

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  7. #4

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    Default Re: Dow Transports

    Part of me wonders if this index still has the importance it did even 10 years ago with AMZN for example making deliveries with their own trucks. Automation and sub contracting deliveries affect the index too. Why pay JB Hunt when you can pay less through a fly-by-night truck company? The other part of me says if the trucks aren't moving, commerce is slowing. Transports blew through the December lows and never surpassed the October 2018 highs.

    I monitor insider buying for a bunch of transport stocks and have seen more insider buying the past month than I've seen in over a year.

    djtran.jpg

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  9. #5

    Default Re: Dow Transports

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Part of me wonders if this index still has the importance it did even 10 years ago with AMZN for example making deliveries with their own trucks. Automation and sub contracting deliveries affect the index too. Why pay JB Hunt when you can pay less through a fly-by-night truck company? The other part of me says if the trucks aren't moving, commerce is slowing. Transports blew through the December lows and never surpassed the October 2018 highsdjtran.jpg
    Great points and I agree...where it is still relevant, at least in my mind, is the overall picture. I try to think bigger than AMZN and JB Hunt. The problem with this is a lot of the big time shipping companies are privately owned. Companies like XPO (Conway), AP moller-maersk, DHL and others are some of the heavy hitters to watch. I'm not sure about some of those but Conway and Kronos are two that I know are on the NYSE.

    Regardless, most of these companies stats are not reflected in the ^DJT so I'm not sure, like you, how relevant they are to the overall index. One company I was told about a while ago is Kronos Worldwide (KRO). Has been trending flat to slightly lower throughout 19 and had a recent fall off starting on Feb 20 ($11.70) to March 12th ($7.14) for about a 39% drop. Conway is tracking about the same with Feb 20 ($99.11) to March 12 ($55.52) for about a 44% drop. If these two are considered forecasters (and I'm not saying they are) then we still have a ways to go.
    Last edited by Mcqlives; 03-14-2020 at 04:37 PM. Reason: had XPO wrong

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  11. #6

    Default Re: Dow Transports

    Rail and trucking are certainly good barometers for the economy but it's those airline stocks and rental car companies that are getting crushed during this episode. Airlines were basically cut in half and did you see Avis went from 50 to 18 in 3 weeks?
    Tom
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  13. #7

    Default Re: Dow Transports

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Rail and trucking are certainly good barometers for the economy but it's those airline stocks and rental car companies that are getting crushed during this episode. Airlines were basically cut in half and did you see Avis went from 50 to 18 in 3 weeks?
    I saw the airlines but missed the rentals...ouch! I bet any companies renting any residential are taking a hit too! I wonder if FRBO and others like that have any stats to look at? This is so wide-ranging I think it will be months before things normalize.

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  15. #8

    Default Re: Dow Transports

    Yeah, this won't be a quickie, but the market seems to move faster than we get the info. That's why the market is down 15 - 25% this year when the economic data has been just fine. So, even went the awful data starts to come out, the market will probably be on its way back up already leaving mom and pop behind again.

    Sell the rumor, buy the news?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #9

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    Default Re: Dow Transports

    American Airlines just announced they are cutting all long haul International flights by 75% through May 7, and parking 135 Wide body jets.


    That is absolutely unprecedented in history. Nothing has ever been like this.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: Dow Transports

    JB Hunt is a good one to watch and is probably more important than NFLX. Right now it's looking like a Q2 earnings beat.

    The company, considered a transportation bellwether, reported net income fell to $121.7 million, or $1.14 a share, from $133.6 million, or $1.23 a share.
    Meanwhile, operating revenue fell to $2.15 billion from $2.26 billion a year earlier.

    Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected a profit of 85 cents a share on $2.03 billion in revenue.

    Dow Jones Newswires

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: Dow Transports

    Notable breakout.

    jbht1.JPG

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  23. #12

    Default Re: Dow Transports

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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