Thread: Market Talk / Nov. 5 - Nov. 11

Nice article in govexec.com Tom-

http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/1106/110206pb.htm

Let's go get em.

A good week for the market this week? All eyes are on Tuesday. What will the voters bring?

06:23 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.8.

Excellent pin action today - even GE is on the move, finally. I think we could close up at least 150 points today. Hoofs are on the way. Snort.

Come on Ferdinand, come to Elsie. What do you have in mind for tomorrow? Hey, don't eat those lilly pads, they are sacrosanct. Well only eat a few then. Snort.

It's days like today that I question why tried to start positioning with the trends vice staying long all the time. I'm trying to avoid the nasty drops like we had in the summer, but so far I've only cheated myself out of about 2-3% by moving around. I'm thinking maybe I should just stay 50% long and play with the other 50%. My TSP only makes up about 30% of our retirement funds anyway...the rest is all long amongst various mutual funds.

Just some thoughts from the lilly pad...

It's all about performance Ghage. Is your 'strategy' beating L2040, or 20% in each fund, or maybe TSPtalk's strategy, then figure in your time & effort.

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
November 6, 2006 Closing

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks rally on deals and Fed thrills!

Con-Yak...................................What happened to the pull back?

Jester-Yak................................

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1379.78, up +15.48
Stops......................................Alert: 1376 (restored). Trail: 1363
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................increasing at -2.609.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 40.34 [20] Poped up

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................60.02, up +0.88
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
TSP........................................Safe; capital preservation.

From Henry To: At this point, the breadth of the market is still strong - despite last weeks correction. Even should breadth top out here, the major indices typically should still have four to six months to run before forming a significant top (based on action in a typical bull market.)

Dennis - permabull #1

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.2. Early indications are signaling a mixed start for stocks. That's not all that surprising, though, as investors await the results of today's closely-watched mid-term elections and there isn't much in the way of market-moving news to sustain yesterday's surprise rally.

Wall St., if the Democrats win

Republicans could very well lose the House and possibly the Senate, too. Here's what that means for investors.

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
November 6 2006: 6:57 PM EST


In the short term, a change in control of at least one of the chambers of Congress would probably spark a stock selloff,investors and market experts said.That's because traditionally Republican Wall Street would seem to prefer to have Republicans in control of Capitol Hill as well as the White House since the party's policies are widely viewed as more big business friendly.
Should the Republicans hold on to both chambers of Congress, "we can anticipate an upward - though likely short-lived - trend" in the market, said David Leblang, a political science professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

09:00 ET Dow , Nasdaq , S&P : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Still shaping up to be a sluggish start for equities, with early signs suggesting today's elections might keep the stock market in a holding pattern throughout the session. Meanwhile, with the impact of a weak housing market at the forefront of investors', and voters', minds, homebuilders will garner added attention today. Beazer Homes (BZH) beat a downwardly revised Q4 consensus estimate but issued downside FY07 EPS guidance while KB Home (KBH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) also provided disappointing updates. Nasdaq at... NYSE Adv/Dec 0/0... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 0/0.