Perhaps this is what it takes to make people realize how dependent we have become on the Communists. All of our grandparents knew better, yet here we are.
I meant that I did not mean to "like" things changing from green to red.
I "liked" that you posted it though.
I continue to be constantly amazed at the resilience of this market, even though the virus is going to devastate large segments of it.
I just talked to a friend yesterday who was planning a two week cruise from Singapore to Hong Kong two weeks from now. They made reservations six months ago.
they cancelled last week, even though it meant losing thousands in cancellation fees. I know they must be typical of others- so the whole travel industry is about to collapse.
THen you have all your big box stores who have good coming from China. Ships are being cancelled because factories are closed and cannot produce. That's going to take a few weeks to hit the supply chain
impact on retail, but you know it will be huge in a month or two.
So how is it, with all this about to hit the bottom line, that stocks keep going up?? Are investors not realizing the impact of the halt in goods from China? And the cancelled travel? airlines? tourism?
It can't be too much longer before a crash. (Or am I just being too negative?)
Perhaps this is what it takes to make people realize how dependent we have become on the Communists. All of our grandparents knew better, yet here we are.
The irony here is that while a 1.5% yield on the 10-year is signalling trouble, and cash pays virtually nothing, where else is all the pension and 401K money going to go? I guess that's how bubbles are made.
Oh, and the market may have heard you today. The Dow is now down 300+ out of nowhere.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Emotions should never play a role in one's investing strategy!
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Money has nowhere else to go with interest rates so low. Earn 2% on a 30 year treasury or earn 1.8% in SP500 dividends alone.
Markets have factored in all the headlines and they really don't matter. Too many people are still hoping for a headline out of China that says 300,000 dead from virus. That headline is not going to happen.
Google trends chart below shows people aren't "panicking" about corona virus. Searches have been trending down since the January peak. In fact, Google scores "Corona Virus" a 37 today,down from a peak 100.
Screenshot from 2020-02-20 14-09-22.jpg
Spring is right around the corner.
LOL.... negative rates could be next.....
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Unfortunately, the time China to prepare for such a shock has passed. Under reaction and overreaction both bring risk.
If China starts to go down, deflation will follow. Not good for inflation prospects and the only way will be continued rate cuts, which I believe the US will embark on very soon based on current yields. Who knows what China does from here, but they can't let their great leader down with weak growth.
South Korea goes on high alert over virus, Italy battles to contain outbreak
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so...od=coronavirus
Coronavirus could spark a 20% tech pullback, investor Paul Meeks warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/23/coro...eks-warns.html
Pre-markets:
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=@SP.1
Dow set to drop almost 400 points at the open as coronavirus cases outside China surge
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/us-f...-outbreak.html
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=@DJ.1
Fears of a ‘supply shock’ are rattling stocks and global markets as viral outbreak continues
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...ues-2020-02-25
American soldier stationed in South Korea first service member to test positive for coronavirus
https://news.yahoo.com/american-sold...040942381.html
Dow set to drop more than 300 points following report of first US coronavirus case of unknown origin
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/dow-...s-warning.html
Pre-markets:
https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
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