Wall Street predicts a high-single-digit gain next year, but history shows that is likely wrong


CNBC’s strategist survey shows a median predicted 2020 S&P 500 gain of 6.5% to 3375.

Since 1928, the S&P has only showed a gain of between 5-10% six out of the 91 calendar years – suggesting the consensus forecast for a high-single-digit rise in 2020 has a 93% chance of being wrong.

Wall Street predicts a recession will be avoided in 2020 and the global economy will pick up in coming months, with U.S. GDP returning toward long-term trend growth around 2%. The first part of the year should be strong, they predict, but expect more volatility ahead of the election.