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Thread: Analyst Predictions

  1. #13

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    Long-term charts out of Ned Davis Research suggest stocks are overpriced and households are fully invested. These charts undermine the scarce plausibility of a continuation of the bull market. That's not to say these charts give ground to a recession or a major market sell-off. But reasons to keep buying are dwindling as we hit the boundaries of long-term trends (since 1928), we see cash levels are lower than normal, we're surrounded by the multitudes of uncertainty coming into an election year, and all the while predictions of a coming recession get louder every day. The take home message is not to retreat to the G-fund or cash for good, but to pay attention.

    Think individual investors are set to power stocks to new highs? Think again, says Ned Davis

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by TommyIV View Post
    The take home message is not to retreat to the G-fund or cash for good, but to pay attention.

    Think individual investors are set to power stocks to new highs? Think again, says Ned Davis
    That actually is some great information, but with 2 IFT's a month it's difficult to not want to run to G and then be wary of getting out of G. Paying attention doesn't help when you are out of moves. Just saying.
    May the force be with us.

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  5. #15

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    That actually is some great information, but with 2 IFT's a month it's difficult to not want to run to G and then be wary of getting out of G. Paying attention doesn't help when you are out of moves. Just saying.
    Fair point. And to that, I've been in the G-fund for most of the year as far as the auto tracker (although I mostly trade ETFs). But if your goal is to maximize your return then you have to be able to leave comfort when faced with opportunity.

    The F-fund for instance outperformed all TSP funds in August due to the demand across the globe for a reasonable yield. And the C and S-fund have been fluctuating in a trading channel that exposing just part of your account for a day or two during the bounce off support could have added more than 0.5% or more than if you stayed in G-fund all month.

    I mean to say pay attention for opportunity. But I agree with the importance of protecting capital and the power to choose not to invest at any particular moment.

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  7. #16

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    The S&P 500 is just off its highs and the bears are growling. The S&P 500 closed over 3000 today but according to Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist Binky Chadha, the index is really valued at around 2600.

    Chadha didn't leave the recession chant that was particularly loud last month. In this article points to another recession indicator: U.S. jobs growth which was last published as being at 1.3%...

    Every time payrolls growth has gone below 1%, the U.S. has ended up in recession. We would argue the U.S. economy is dangerously close to...tipping into recession
    The S&P 500 should be 13% lower because a recession is coming, warns Deutsche Bank

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  9. #17

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    Hold on to your seats, historical tendencies have investors looking on to a volatile October. Whatever the direction may be, October seems to be pushed around more easily than other months. Analysts who respect the past say prepare for the same. Caution predictions that use the past to predict the future. Self fulfilling prophecies may be the greatest credence to the forecast. But logically nothing tells us that the future will resemble the past. September was forecasted to be the worst performing month for stocks yet the month ended with more than 2% gains.

    Don’t expect calm markets in October, historically a month for wild swings

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  11. #18

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by TommyIV View Post
    Hold on to your seats, historical tendencies have investors looking on to a volatile October. Whatever the direction may be, October seems to be pushed around more easily than other months. Analysts who respect the past say prepare for the same. Caution predictions that use the past to predict the future. Self fulfilling prophecies may be the greatest credence to the forecast. But logically nothing tells us that the future will resemble the past. September was forecasted to be the worst performing month for stocks yet the month ended with more than 2% gains.

    Don’t expect calm markets in October, historically a month for wild swings
    First three days of the month have upheld to the October reputation. Even the first hour of trading today has been quite eventful. A disappointing service sector report sent the indices in a free fall at the open only to bounce and wipe more than half those early gains. Where will this oscillating market stabilize today?


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  13. #19

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    As the S&P 500 is trading at record prices today, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio is warning investors of not a coming market crash but rather a "great sag". The geopolitical and trade issues world wide are his focus for his claims.

    Why the bull market won’t end with a typical crash, says hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio
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  15. #20

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    Recession fears have spiked since the late 2018 sell off. Investors and economist are waiting for the catalyst that usually isn't obvious to everyone. Just with the housing bubble in 2008, the signs were obvious to everyone after the fact yet pointed out by few before. Well strategists Joseph Zidle is currently pointing at the sovereign debt market and sees trouble coming soon...

    The “mother of all bubbles” in the sovereign debt market, Zidle says, is the catalyst that will likely trigger the next recession. He expects that to happen between mid-2020 and the end of 2021.
    The ‘mother of all bubbles’ could blow up the economy if profits don’t improve, warns Blackstone strategist
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  17. #21

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    Jason Goepfert of Sentiment Trader sees warning signs in stock indcies. Two seperate patterns that are said to forcast a market pullback are showing up in the latest trading patterns.

    ‘Hindenburg Omen’ and ‘Ohama Titanic Syndrome’ form in a key stock-market index
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  19. #22

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    2019 was an explosive year for stocks. What do we expect going into the new decade? Top analysts don't expect a repeat but their expectations do vary form each other.

    Where will the S&P 500 go in 2020? Here are the most bullish and bearish strategists
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  21. #23

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    Analysts say the first quarter of 2020 is primed for a melt-up. A "trifecta of catalysts" is set to expand an asset bubble despite underlying issues.

    Analysts at Morgan Stanley, led by Michael Wilson, chief U.S. strategist, have described the current state of bullish play as a trifecta of catalysts. Those include accommodative central banks, providing fresh liquidity to already-buoyant markets; easing Brexit uncertainty; and apparent progress toward a meaningful detente in China-U.S.
    trade relations.
    ..melt-up is considered by market pundits as the end phase of an asset bubble and is usually followed by a significant downturn in stock values

    Why Wall Street sees the stock market on the verge of a ‘melt-up’
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  23. #24

    Default Re: Analyst Predictions

    Reasons to sell versus reason to buy in the past decade:

    Buy and hold or surf the ups and downs? Past recessions and bear markets leave behind the concept of risk in the minds of investors even when markets are strong. The potential downfall of stock prices have a greater short-term impact than the grind of the climb. This makes reasons to sell all so much more obvious than those to buy most the time having investors leave gains on the table.

    “You would think that keeping up with the market is as simple as buying an index fund and leaving it alone,” Batnick concluded in his post. “And it is that simple, but it isn’t that easy, because bad news smashes your face against an amplifier, while good news just plays quietly in the background.”
    Stocks are up 495% in the past decade — here’s why you probably aren’t
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