Thread: Why are you afraid of the I fund?

5 years ago this week I lost 10% in 3 days in the I fund while I was on travel. It's rare that I go back in, but with European QE maybe it was an obvious choice, but I didn't bite yet.

If I recall correctly Tom mentioned in early Jan that the I-fund merited watching.
Now that it's made a 4-month run I'm afraid of 'buying the peak'. But then again with Europe QE and the U.S. market near all time highs it's worth a look. One pet peeve I have with the I-fund is not being able to track it in real time accurately. However for TSP purposes that really shouldn't matter I suppose. It simply bugs me.

The I Fund was scary for me also...for many years.
However, I do remember that several years ago it did beat the pants off of all the rest of the funds, so "Every Dog Has His Day".

We might have a phobia over the I fund because ever since the Great Recession...the US was the "QE Leader" while other countries tried "Austerity". Result: S and C Funds generally outperformed the I Fund.
Seems Bernanke and our Fed were right all along...QE first, then ease out and perhaps gradually incorporate "Austerity" someday (lol).

So now that Europe is ditching Austerity and going "QE" while Chine regularly tries its own stimulus...and WE are starting to unwind ours, it is likely that this could be THE YEAR for the I Fund.
Remember...your fear is the brick that builds the wall that others climb up over you on.

Anyway...to try to get rid of my fear...this year when I have gone from 100% G into stocks...I have been mixing my exposure to the I fund...anywhere from a third to a little over a half...the rest in C and/or S. (below).
No one says you have to always put all your eggs in one basket.

Tracker History I Fund.jpg

Today EFA finished up 1.1% but I fund is down due to fair value I guess. That's why no one trusts it. It can go the other way too.

Originally Posted by clester

Today EFA finished up 1.1% but I fund is down due to fair value I guess. That's why no one trusts it. It can go the other way too.

Yeah, it's that "fair value" thing I don't get. Not enough ambition to study it! lol

Originally Posted by clester

Today EFA finished up 1.1% but I fund is down due to fair value I guess. That's why no one trusts it. It can go the other way too.

Yeah...I hear you.
Some smart @$$ thing Birch would say might be "yeah...keep on worrying over the I Fund...your bricks of worry is building me a higher wall to climb up on" (LOL)

But maybe another way to look at it "going the other way" is yesterdays action (below).
I fund got priced better than its daily action and lost much less than the other funds.
One thing I'm starting to figure out is its not just how big a funds "Up" days are, but also its "Down" days.
All that averaged in...its that "% Change month" and "% Change Year" number that matters most.

April30Prices.png

FV, no other reason... Been burned too many times

We used to have a Member that could figure the FV out mathematically on a daily basis, BUT I forget his Screen Name? Hhuuummm?nerd.gif

Ebb used to do a pretty good job of it

He was some kind of a Technician I think? Gilligan might be able to do it, he started a thread in the "I" Fund Forum all about FV.
What is a "FV" and how does it work?

Good post. You could be right about the European QE...or not. I'm concerned about how long it's been since we've had a real correction. I can't shake the feeling that there are stronger long term structural forces at work here. I've decided to listen to my gut and am on the sidelines for now. Now that I've said that and gone all risk averse...enjoy the surge in the I fund that will probably occur and make the rest of you rich. I'll never be the smart money.

FS