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Thread: From all G to S today

  1. #25

    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    6,999

    Default Re: From all G to S today

    Quote Originally Posted by dpmp View Post
    I got out on the day of massive drop. Then got in on the day of massive gain. Luckily, I bought in at the same price I got out (C fund). Wasted 2 IFTs for nothing. Pain in the a$$.
    Sometimes, it doesn't go your way, sometimes it does....Then there's the ties.
    THIS IS WHERE I WOULD PUT SOMETHING TO REPRESENT MY THINKING, BUT THEN THEY SHOW UP!
    Tracker =
    Check my position

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  3. #26

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    680

    Default Re: From all G to S today

    I'll take a neutral over a negative everyday day. Speaks to staying in through some discomfort but at least things are looking up now. Should be a pretty good year.

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  5. #27

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Exclamation Re: From all G to S today

    Quote Originally Posted by kb9nvh View Post
    Thinking about going all G today. I know I should stick with this but I have so much at risk. I suck at investing but catching a good bet every now and then can really perk up a lagging portfolio.
    As of COB yesterday 25%C, 25%S and 50%F.
    I've traditionally left F alone but from watching you guys it looks like a better safe haven than G for normal times.

    I'm 56 and I plan on 5 years to retirement. With $520K now and need to work my way closer to $1000K. I cant just hang out in G but I'm afraid of the bottom dropping out of this. Keeping an eye on all you guys really helps get a feeling for where the dangers are and when it's time to bail out so maybe I should stay in and until calamity gets a little closer. I hate/love this. haha
    kb9nvh,

    With 5 years to retirement you should not be invested in too much risk. Right now you are at 0% risk and basically 0% return. That will not get you to the Cool Mill you want. You will have to max out your contributions ($18K max 401(k) + $6K catch up + 5% match) and get about 8%/year to get there. That 8% is really 5% after inflation.

    The L2030 could get you there - but therein lies the problem You will be retiring in 2020. The L2030 had a 2008 drawdown of 23% while the L2020 drew down 11%. The L2020 was 12 years out from retirement back in the day, the L2030 is 15 years out. My guess is that the L2030 could have a drawdown of about 16% if we had another 2008. Do you have the time to make up 16% - 20% of your asset base.

    Finally, you bailed to 100% G in a market with very slight moves. If you keep doing that you will miss the good days like today. If you miss the good days like today my guess is that you will definitely not make the 8% you need. You have got to get an allocation you can stomach and then bet on the edges. Alevin has stuck it through with 15% in C this year when she would normally bail out. She has the properish sticky pants on in relation to her stomach issues.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
From all  G to S today
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
From all  G to S today
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
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BND (F Fund) (delayed)
From all  G to S today
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