I too have been running estimates on achieving 95% probability of success on my money lasting 33 years using financial engines and another calculator, FIRECalc. I have reached the same conclusion regarding risk. I do not need more that 35%-40% equities for my money to last, at a 4.5% withdrawal rate. I used 8% average yearly return (37% Stock/63% Bond) with a Standard Deviation (SD) of 9%. If I increase the equity exposure to 60% the average return increases to 9% (60% Stock/40% Bond), but the probability of my money lasting decreases to below 80 percent because of the larger SD of 13%. The likelihood of getting a few bad years in row increases, and its impact is the greatest if it occurs during the first five years of retirement.
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