Re: Buy and Hold
Originally Posted by
DCRanger
Agree with Birch on this one. Bullitt - you're a wealth of knowledge and I'm sure much more sophisticated on investing than I ever will be, but I'm not convinced market timing the TSP is better than buy and hold. Let's see ... in 2008 the S&P index had about a -37% return and in 2009 it returned roughly 26.5%. What was your return in TSP during those years? Did you beat the index using market timing strategies? I'm not trying to throw spears, but you're claiming that buy and hold doesn't work and that timing is better. Can you reliably predict what will happen in the future? If so, then on March 9, 2009, you would have told everyone on this MB to buy, becasue the S&P was at it's lowest point in 10 years. And on Oct 12, 2007, you would have told everyone to seek refuge to the G, but you didn't and most of the timers didn't either. That's no fault of yours, it just goes to show that despite all the technicals, you can't predict the future of the markets.
Hmmm, DC, not sure how long you've been observing, but I can tell you I ended up a few percent on the right side of 0 in 2008, by timing, and I also ended up a few % to the positive in 09, by being too conservative on my timing. Over 2 years time, I did not go in the hole and had nothing to recoup from 08. So this year is a clean slate for me, I can finally go in the hole, or I can actually keep gaining a bit. Just think if you lost 50% in 08, and gained 50% back on your residual 50% in 09, you'd still be 25% deficit from where you started at end of 07. or something like that anyway, you still wouldn't be back to your original level-that's just with the cash you started with, never mind the new inputs. I didn't lose on my DCAs either, since they were going into G until I decided to put those funds elsewhere. that way I know exactly the % gain or loss I have at any one time. My goal in this bear market is not to lose. gaining anything on top is icecream.
"life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard
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