We can't control the weather.
Blaming this on Trump is........
Straight-Up Disaster Looming For US Soy, Corn - Plantings Weeks Late, Approaching Cut-Off
EDIT
2019 is turning out to be a nightmare that never ends for the agriculture industry. Thanks to endless rain and unprecedented flooding, fields all over the middle part of the country are absolutely soaked right now, and this has prevented many farmers from getting their crops in the ground. I knew that this was a problem, but when I heard that only 30 percent of U.S. corn fields had been planted as of Sunday, I had a really hard time believing it. But it turns out that number is 100 percent accurate. And at this point corn farmers are up against a wall because crop insurance final planting dates have either already passed or are coming up very quickly. In addition, for every day after May 15th that corn is not in the ground, farmers lose approximately 2 percent of their yield. Unfortunately, more rain is on the way, and it looks like thousands of corn farmers will not be able to plant corn at all this year. It is no exaggeration to say that what we are facing is a true national catastrophe.
According to the Department of Agriculture, over the past five years an average of 66 percent of all corn fields were already planted by now…
U.S. farmers seeded 30% of the U.S. 2019 corn crop by Sunday, the government said, lagging the five-year average of 66%. The soybean crop was 9% planted, behind the five-year average of 29%.
Soybean farmers have more time to recover, but they are facing a unique problem of their own which we will talk about later in the article. But first, let's take a look at the corn planting numbers from some of our most important corn producing states. I think that you will agree that these numbers are almost too crazy to believe…
Iowa: 48 percent planted - 5-year average 76 percent
Minnesota: 21 percent planted - 5-year average 65 percent
North Dakota: 11 percent planted - 5-year average 43 percent
South Dakota: 4 percent planted - 5-year average 54 percent
EDIT
I would use the word "catastrophe" to describe what Illinois farmers are facing, but the truth is that what they are going through is far beyond that. Normally, if corn farmers have a problem getting corn in the ground then they just switch to soybeans instead. But thanks to the trade war, soybean exports have plummeted dramatically, and the price of soybeans is the lowest that it has been in a decade. As a result there is very little profit, if any, in growing soybeans this year…
EDIT
https://seekingalpha.com/article/426...Z-zNc#comments
20
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
We can't control the weather.
Blaming this on Trump is........
I'm thinking we'll end up paying much more in subsidies to farmers than we have already.
[COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]
Interestingly, the futures prices don't reflect any concerns yet. A little pop off recent lows for wheat and corn, but soybeans are near the lows. Or is that the point? Prices are low because of export issues? Or is it that the weather caused low output? I'm confused. Usually when there's crop yield problems, prices go up.
These are 2-year weekly charts.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Just a reminder, as I'm certain you already know; instruments can and do ebbnflow in an Elliott wave fashion, even as they approach zero.
IMO, there are at least a few main issues:
1. Tariffs caused an excess of supply (product meant for China's demand is now stuck here); which suppresses prices. And,
2. Floods are causing a Midwestern, Mississippi River supply chain problem for current product. Prices can't go up if the product is not in the market. Alternate chains (rail car, truck) will increase pricing pressure to the upside ... eventually. And,
3. Floods are disrupting the planting of product. This effect is yet to be seen, but may be taken into account by growers ... once they can get their product in the market.
4. Subsidies. If the growers are told the math; and the math makes it better to maintain low prices and move all their product--rather than price it for possible higher profits, but absolutely lower subsidies; well, then, I guess the growers may do as low income families are accused of doing ... game the system.
Unintended Consequences.
Natural disasters occur ... naturally, and regularly. But I doubt there was a plan in place for that possibility occurring during this tariff war.
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
||
Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
Bookmarks