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  1. Quiet Day

    Stocks had a typical positive bias holiday type trading day on Wednesday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar today. It may or may not be up, but it should be quiet - provided there aren't any surprises announced, such as dismal holiday sales.

    There is some overhead resistance in S&P 500 so I am not looking for any runaway upside action. To me, this chart tells us that the risk remains on the downside, but because it is the day after Christmas, any losses (or ...
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  2. Where's the Santa rally?

    Stocks dipped again yesterday as the Dow dropped 100-points and the C, S, and I-funds lost 1%, 0.75%, and 1.3% respectively. Isn't Santa supposed to be coming to town? The strong seasonality actually begins today, so we'll give him another chance.

    The S&P 500 is actually acting "normally" considering the abnormal season period. The rising wedge broke down after a fake out breakout to the upside of the descending trading channel. Normal. Once the wedge broke, it fell back ...
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  3. The wedge breaks down, but there's a case for the bulls

    Stocks drifted down most of the day, but a late spike higher kept things under control. The Dow dropped "just" 60-points, but this time the S&P 500 and small caps were the laggards.



    The C and S funds were hit hard dropping 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while the I-fund, with the help of more weakness in the dollar, lost just 0.45%.

    The S&P 500 finally gave a convincing break to the downside ...
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  4. Seasonality vs. the overbought bear market

    Stocks rallied sharply after the announcement of the auto bailout on Friday, as the Dow moved up about 200-points, but just like we saw after the financial bailout, the gains were quickly given back and the Dow finished down 25-points.

    The S&P 500 and small caps did manage to hang on to some gains with the C and S funds moving up 0.25% and 0.92% respectively. The I fund dropped about a percent as the dollar rebounded from its recent precipitous drop.

    The S&P ...
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  5. Fear is diminishing - good or bad?

    Stocks struggled all day but things really fell apart after Standard and Poors (S&P) revised their outlook on GE's credit rating from stable to negative. The TSP funds dropped 2% to 3% with the I-fund taking the largest hit after the dollar rallied 1.5%.

    The S&P 500 broke through the lower end of the rising wedge pattern mid-day, but did squeeze back in by the close. The bears would say that it is now on the precipice of a potential sell-off if the S&P does break, but the ...
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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