Daily Market Commentary

The stock and bond markets didn't get through the CPI unscathed, but it could have been worse as we did see the indices close off their lows. The charts are showing some cracks with those losses so this morning's PPI becomes that much more important. Perhaps it will reverse the decline but the hot CPI does poses a problem for the market. The big three indices lost near 1% on the day and small caps, which are more interest rate sensitive, took a near 2% haircut. Bonds fell sharply as yields moved ...

The bulls are not giving up easily as the bears showed their teeth for most of the day yesterday, but the bulls battled back and took the S&P 500 and Nasdaq back into positive territory by the close. The Dow came back from a 200+ point loss to close nearly positive, but it was negative and that's now 6 down days in the last 7. Bonds moved up on a dip in yields as another Fed member gave some comments, this time more dovish.

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Stocks opened higher on Monday but it was a very choppy and flat day for the big three indices yesterday, but small caps bucked that trend and rallied nicely, despite another push higher in yields. The action wasn't great for the large caps as dip buyer were met with profit takers and perhaps people like me who saw Thursday's action as a possible warning sign. Bonds were down again on the higher yields, and the I-fund was up on a weaker dollar.

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Stocks bounced back on Friday and the bulls try to recapture the momentum after Thursday's potential trend changing sell off. The monthly jobs report came in strong again so yields and the dollar moved higher, but that didn't deter the dip buyers from doing their thing, but is it too late with the charts starting to show some cracks? Bonds were hit hard with the 10-year T-note yield closing at a new 2024 high.

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Stocks gapped up higher on Thursday, maintained those gains for several hours, but reversed late thanks to some opinionated comments from a Federal Reserve Board Member, and a spike in oil prices from escalated tension in the Middle East, bringing inflation fears back to the forefront. It was a classic negative outside reversal day on the charts, which is usually very bearish, so can today's jobs report help the situation or will it add more fuel to the fire?

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