Daily Market Commentary

After trying to rally early on Thursday, stocks tanked on the Bloomberg News report that the Biden administration is planning a capital gains tax hike to as high as 43.4% for wealthy Americans. The indices went south in a hurry and the Dow, which was struggling to stay even just before the headline, closed down 321-points which was about 100-points off its lows, but a free fall from the 1 PM ET high. There were loss of near 1% in many indices, but the small caps held up better.

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Stocks rallied back on Wednesday after another negative open, so we saw a bit of a wash out sell off, as modest as it was, and a reversal. The Dow gained 316-points on the day and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq got back Tuesday's losses, but they're still down for the week. Same for the small caps which found support at the 50-day average, but remains below resistance. Bonds rallied.

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Day two of the pullback took stocks off their highs and we're close to knowing if this is a 2 - 3 day dip, or the start of a more serious decline, similar to what we saw in January, February, and March, with those pullbacks lasting between 4 and 13 days before reversing up again. The Dow lost 256-points on the day, which was off the lows after a final hour push higher yesterday. Bonds bounced back yesterday, yields were down, and the dollar also rebounded some, putting ...

Stocks pulled back on Monday with the Dow losing a modest 123-points, which was well off the lows, but we saw more serious losses in the Nasdaq and small caps as bond yields started to rally back. The market needed a rest and the question is whether any decline will be a pause to consolidate, or an outright pullback or correction to perhaps clean up some of the over extended charts.

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Stocks were mostly higher on Friday while bonds pulled back. The Dow gained 165-points and led on the upside with a 0.48% gain. Large tech, and more so the small caps, lagged on the day, but all the TSP stock funds added about a percent and a half of gains last week. Bond yields look ready to move higher again and that could be a test for stocks this week.

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