TSP Talk Blog

Another excellent day for the TSP funds on Friday, whether stocks or bonds, and the S-fund had another one of those returns that would be respectable for a full month -- in one day. The question is whether this is what they call a "blow off top", and a breakout leading to another leg higher? The dollar and yields cooperated by falling lower helping the situation.

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Stocks were mixed yesterday but a late surge of high volume trading in the final minutes turned the S&P 500 from negative to positive as end of month window dressing took over. The Nasdaq closed down but it also closed well off the 1% loss it had earlier in the day as buy programs hit the market with about 15 minutes left in the trading day. The Dow had a 500+ point gain thanks to a huge move in Salesforce.com, and that moved the Dow to a new high for the year. Bonds were down as yields moved ...

More quiet action on Wednesday although there was a little more volatility after stocks open sharply higher, but faded throughout the day to close flat, but mixed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down slightly but the active small caps were at it again, jumping almost 1% on the day. That was also well off the highs and we may have seen a negative reversal, but being the last trading day of a super hot November, the question today will be whether we see monthly window dressing or just some profit ...

The strength in the bond market continues and that is pushing yields lower, giving the stock market reason to hang in there despite some overbought conditions. The major three indices were up modestly, while small caps were down but holding firmly at a key moving average. The action has actually been quite boring, and a boring stock market tends to favor the bulls, but it is vulnerable to any bad news at these lofty levels.

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After a weekend of turkey sandwiches, the stock market had a little too much tryptophan in its system, and was doing a lot of napping on Monday. Stocks were sluggish, which is about what the seasonality chart suggests happens after the bullish activity during Thanksgiving week. The Dow lost 57-points and the modest losses permeated throughout most of the broader indices as well. Yields were down giving the bonds and the F-fund a nice bounce back day.

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