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TSP Talk Blog

This and that about the market, the TSP, maybe some politics, and life.

  1. TSP Talk: Reversal!

    Stocks were up modestly on a quiet Monday on Wall Street. Yeah, right. What a day! The Dow traded in a 1300 point range and closed with a 99-point gain on very high volume. Most of the other 1200 points were on the downside as we had a powerful positive reversal day. Small caps, which had been beaten up the most, recovered the most and tacked on a big gain. The I-fund lagged as we might expect with the dollar down and the U.S. indices rallying late. Bonds were down.

  2. TSP Talk: Relief coming, or a crash?

    Once again we saw an attempted rally turn south on Friday as the indices continue to get crushed, and the start to 2022 is officially ugly! The S&P 500 has given up 7.7% so far this year, which I guess is only a modest portion of 2021's 29% gain. Small caps are another story as they have now given back all of 2021's gains. The Dow lost another 450-points on Friday. Bonds rallied as investors moved toward safety.

  3. TSP Talk: Another morning rally fails... badly

    Once again someone flipped a switch after a very positive morning and it turned into a sell the rally afternoon. The Dow, which was up over 450-points at the early highs, ended the day down 313-points. There wasn't a whole lot of news to trigger the move, but as we've been talking about, investors and money managers will use rallies to sell and / or reallocate their portfolios for a higher interest rate environment. Bonds were up a bit even though the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up again. ...
  4. TSP Talk: Sell the rally mentality kicking in

    Yesterday was not a good day for stocks, in more ways than just the closing losses. It showed us that investors and traders are in fact in "sell the rallies' mode. We saw the indices open with decent gains, pullback, then stabilize again and move back up, but that second push higher also failed, and eventually the indices closed at the lows of the day. The Dow lost 340-points and as we pointed out yesterday, fell below a key trading channel. The Nasdaq and small caps continue to lag. ...
  5. TSP Talk: Internal damage and warning signs

    No follow through to the pre-holiday positive reversal as Turnaround Tuesday turned into a Trouncing Tuesday for stocks. The Dow dropped 543-points on the day, and higher yields rising were the catalyst as the 10-year Treasury moved close to 1.9% yesterday. This recent push higher in yields isn't too much of a surprise to many people, but perhaps the speed of the move is. Some investors, who may be still heavily invested in growth stocks and not allocated for a high interest rate environment, ...
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