TSP Talk Blog

It was another hurky-jerky day for the market on Wednesday as stocks opened sharply higher, then sold off for a few hours before buyers showed up and erased the losses. But another very late reversal sent the indices down to close somewhere in the middle between the highs and lows. The Dow lost 177-points and the major indices all lost about three quarters of a percent. Bonds were down sharply, and the dollar was up.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

Ok, the TSP website is back online but there seems to be a lot of issues including no updated share prices or returns, or the ability to make any IFTs yet. As a former federal government computer programmer, I know there is nothing like getting a few million people to test your work to find all the issues, and that's where they are now. So, they will be busy identifying and fixing bugs. It could take days or weeks, we don't know.

According to some people who tried, if you go to the website and request an IFT, it appears as if it is working while inputting your information, but it doesn't allow the transaction to go through.

The one thing you may want to jump on is getting your new account started and signed in so you will have the ability to make transactions once it is working. It takes about 10 minutes to set up a login and security settings. Some people have reported having an issue, and others were successful, so I would try to get it done early if you can. It worked for me. Here is the link:

https://www.tsp.gov/login/
Several of our forum members have been diving in and reporting on the issues. If you want to read, or add to the conversation, it is here:

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc-/39022-new-website-now-active-sign-up-now.html

I'm in the dark as much as anybody else so if you see anything new, I wouldn't mind a head's up email or an update in the forum. Thank you!

Now a quick look at the market action, and again we can't do anything about it until the TSP website is back online, so this could be more frustrating than helpful.

We got some very negative economic commentary from Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase yesterday that seemed to trigger a lot of the selling. Was it a knee-jerk reaction? Maybe. He is certainly qualified to know, but has the 20% decline priced this in already? That's what we'll find out.

Also, the Fed's Quantitative Tightening has just started. The market loved the easing and stocks did very well during that time. Can it handle this?


The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down for a second straight day so the post holiday reversal is still on for now. The action wasn't terrible as buyers did step up midday after testing the 20-day EMA, and also a very small gap that you can't even see on this small chart was filled between last Thursday's high of 4075.14 and Friday's low of 4077.43. yesterday's low of 4074 filled it and it then bounced from there so that's a bullish plus.




The DWCPF (S-fund) had a nice intraday reversal as well, and it was able to close above its 20-day EMA for a 4th straight day. The problem I see is that potential bear flag. My biased eyes want to see a successful test of the lows instead of a bear flag, but it's a bear flag. It would need to get through the top of that flag - into the blue circle - to make me feel better about it.




We will try to keep you up to date on any progress with the TSP.gov website. I want to thank everyone who has contributed to reporting the updates and issues with us in the forum! I appreciate that.

---

I'll leave these link up during the shutdown for reference:

https://www.tsp.gov/my-account-temporarily-unavailable/

Notice that it says "check back here to see when the new My Account is available", which means they don't have a specific date yet.

Rather than go over all again, here are some links to some key dates and fund changes being made.

https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features...ansition-dates

https://www.fedsmith.com/2022/05/10/...nning-in-june/

https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features...s/#Investments


I may take a day or two off from the daily commentary with a couple of brief write ups while the TSP is down. My TSP Talk Plus ETF System will continue to trade so there could be text alerts sent for those, but I may take advantage of this shutdown by cutting down on the commentaries while the TSP is shutdown.

RevShark is a pro trader outside of the TSO and he's not taking time off so we will likely post his daily general market commentary for his subscribers each morning, and the Intrepid Timer service also has ETF trades so I assume he will keep subscribers up to date although the daily write ups may be limited during the TSP shutdown.

I will shut down the AutoTracker for IFT entries after noon on Thursday the 26th to keep in sync with the TSP. I don't know when the TSP will be coming back online so I don't know how long I will restrict trades, but I will keep an eye out for information. If you hear anything, please let me know. tom @ ... etc. Thanks!


At this point we (TSP Talk) have decided not to incorporate the new mutual funds being offered by the the TSP into our AutoTracker.

The reasons being that there will be some 5000 options, and it would be too daunting of a task to program that in. Plus the fees involved (More here) would also impact the return of allocated in these funds, and so we would not be able to accurately reflect this in our returns.

So, for now, we keep the Autotracker as is. If we decide that some of the Premium Services will use a couple of these new funds, we may incorporate those funds at some point into the Autotracker just to keep the services accountable by accurately tracking their return, but we still do not know what those funds are so we can not speculate at this time.

We will keep you up to date as we get more information.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html

To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley



Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.