TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed yesterday as the Dow lost 25-points, the S&P500 (C-fund) and small caps (S-fund) were up, and the I-fund dropped over 2% with the help of a strong dollar.

The S&P 500 tested the lows made in late December (857) and held so far as yesterday's low was 862. 857 is the next do or die level. If that can not hold I think the odds would rise dramatically that a test of the November lows will be in our future.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The historical seasonality surrounding Martin Luther King Jr. Day is mixed. We see a couple of strong days leading up to the holiday weekend - which would be Thursday and Friday of this week - and some weakness afterward.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

This year the day after M.L.K. Day happens to be the Presidential Inauguration. This is obviously an historic event in American history, but what will it mean to the market? We have the first African American being sworn in, which is pretty exciting, but we are also in the midst of one of the worst economic crisis's in decades.

This chart below from cxoadvisory.com shows us how the market has performed before, on and after the inauguration for Republicans being sworn in (red), Democrats (blue) and all presidents (green).


Source http://www.cxoadvisory.com

Day zero (0) is Tuesday of next week. -1 is Friday of this week, and +1 is next Wednesday.

That's all for today. Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow!