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TSP Talk: A late rally saves the day

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We had some steep losses heading into the final hour of trading on Thursday but stocks bounced late to salvage a mixed and somewhat flat day, and unfortunately for the bulls, that's been about as good as it has been for them lately. The Dow lost 104-points after being down more than 600 at the lows. The Nasdaq squeezed into positive territory while the beleaguered small caps actually had a good day gaining 1.4%, but that is barely noticeable on the beaten down S-fund chart. Bonds rallied and actually moved above one level of resistance.

Daily TSP Funds Return
The PPI was inline with estimates perhaps suggesting a leveling out of inflation, but no sign of a decrease yet.

The data was enough to send the 10-year Treasury yield down and over the last few days it actually fell through a few levels of support, giving the bond (F) fund a little life.

The dollar continues to rally and a rising dollar has the effect of pushing prices lower, but that only seems to be the case in stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and other commodities, because the price of things that the consumer spends the most money on like food, fuel, and housing, continue to go up.

I've been talking about Ark ETFs and Cathie Wood a lot recently because she has taken the brunt of this recent bear market, not only in the tremendous losses her funds have taken, but she's stayed aggressive with her buying and the new positions are also getting clobbered. She's not alone in making some unfortunate calls, I've also been too optimistic recently, but with her most recent addition of Coinbase to her fund, it's getting hard to watch. But bear with me. Maybe this is a bullish sign.

According to, "On May 5, two Ark ETFs reported buying shares of Coinbase. The Ark Next Generation Internet ETF reported purchasing 39,698 shares. Meanwhile, the Ark Fintech Innovation ETF reported buying 23,341 shares. After the purchase, Coinbase accounts for 9.24% of ARKF, making it the ETF’s third-largest position. Furthermore, Coinbase accounts for 8.08% of ARKW, making it the third-largest position as well. Across all Ark ETFs, the company is the fourth-largest holding with a 4.51% allocation."

It was as high as 125.64 on May 5th so, depending on what price she paid that day, her position in Coinbase may be down somewhere between 50% and 55% already, and that's after a healthy rebound off of $40 late yesterday. And this isn't the first such holding that has done this to her fund.

So why do I say this could be bullish? Yesterday Jim Cramer reluctantly said that Cathie has the kiss of death. Everything she touches has gone down. But in my experience, when the criticism hits this kind of level and everyone piles on (like I may be doing here myself) there seems to be a tendency for the universe to reverse course. This isn't a prediction about Cathie or the high tech stocks she invests in, but it wouldn't be a surprise to me if this week marks some kind of low for her fund. It just seems to be the way the world works.

Jason Goepfert of tweeted this out yesterday, which is more of what I have been saying for weeks yet we've seen no relief yet, but eventually things are so bad that it can't get much worse before it improves - even if just short term. He said:

"Today, more than 29% of issues on the NYSE have hit a 52-week low. On the Nasdaq, it's more than 33%.

"There have been only 18 similar days since 1984.

"The S&P 500 showed a loss a year later once, for -0.2%. Its median return was +32.0%."

-- Jason Goepfert


I will continue to remind you of the TSP's transition dates into the new system and when the TSP may be down for trading. We still don't know exactly but at this point my guess is they won't process IFTs from May 26 - May 31.

Here's what has to say:

TSP transition period calendar
We expect the transition period to begin on May 16, 2022, and end the first week of June.

Toward the end of the transition period, we’ll need to suspend all TSP transactions for several days beginning on May 26. My Account and the ThriftLine will also close during this time in order to add new features to enhance the ways you manage your TSP account.


Not that this is a typical year and seasonality hasn't been much of a guidance help, but here's the May seasonality chart and we can see that there does to be some strength at the end of May when the TSP will shut down transactions including interfund transfers, so...

Chart provided courtesy of

It's Friday the 13th. Can the bulls get lucky? We're seeing high levels of fear and we could be close to a snap back rally (he says again) but we still haven't gotten one of those high volume "puking" kind of sell off days. It's debatable if we have to see that, and there's so many people expecting and waiting for one, maybe we won't get it?

The S&P 500 (C-fund) gave us a spinning top formation with tails above and below the opening and closing prices, and this can be an indication of the start of a reversal, although it doesn't have to come on day two. We saw something similar on Tuesday but that one didn't work, plus it closed below the opening price so it wasn't quite as indicative of an upside reversal. There is also a confluence of support near yesterday's lows but the question is whether we can see a reversal without a high volume, major kangaroo tail type of reversal that perhaps breaks below that support first? As I said above - maybe too many people are expecting that to actually get it?

THE DWCPF (S-fund) had a big day but nothing to brag about here as it lingers near levels not seen since the fall of 2020.

The EFA (I-fund) still remains below key support after a fourth close below the March low. The chart looks bad and the strength in the dollar isn't helping.

BND (bonds / F-fund) had another gain yesterday making it four in a row as it broke above one level of resistance, but has another roadblock near 76.50.

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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley

Posted daily at

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes