View RSS Feed

TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk: Typical holiday action so far

Rate this Entry
Several economic reports came out on Wednesday morning and stocks were not looking good when the opening bell rang, but we did see some typical light volume bullish holiday trading afterward and the indices moved up for most of the day and closed at the highs of the day. The Dow closed off the lows but still ended the day with a small loss, but most of the broader indices did well. Small caps led, bonds were up, yields down, and the dollar continues to move higher putting pressure on the I-fund.

Daily TSP Funds Return
The initial jobless claims report beat estimates, coming in stronger than expected, and that initially put some pressure on the futures before the opening bell as investors are sensing the need for the Fed to act on interest rates. Later in the afternoon the Fed Meeting minutes were released and it basically confirmed that they are preparing.

Technically, we saw another reversal on the S&P 500 (C-fund) chart - this one positive after Monday's negative reversal. The result looks like some kind of bullish flag, but trading around the holidays can make for deceptive action. That peak on Monday could get ignored, or it could turn into some kind of meaningful top. Seasonality gets a little worse for stocks next week, but 2021 hasn't been a typical year in following seasonal patterns, so I'm not sure we can count on a typical result.

The DWCPF (S-fund) had a very nice day on Wednesday despite some heavy selling to start the day. It tested Tuesday's low and held, and I'd say that is a bullish sign, but again, holiday action isn't always what it appears to be with trading volume reduced quite a bit. The large open gap that we have been watching is still only partially filled so the chart is only partially satisfied.

As I mentioned on Wednesday, this is going to be a quick commentary. I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving. If you're interested, RevShark (aka, James Deporre), who is one of our premium service providers since 2006, posted his annual Thanksgiving story in the Blog area.

Today is a shortened session for the stock market, but the TSP is open with the normal deadline.

Update: So much for a quiet, bullish biased day. The futures are tanking on Thursday night over a new COVID variant. Here we go again?

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to:

For more info our other premium services, please go here...

To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley

Posted daily at

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

Submit "TSP Talk: Typical holiday action so far" to Digg Submit "TSP Talk: Typical holiday action so far" to Submit "TSP Talk: Typical holiday action so far" to StumbleUpon Submit "TSP Talk: Typical holiday action so far" to Google


SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes